The Jacksonville Jaguars enter tonight’s game on a three-game-winning streak but ended last week on a very low note after Trevor Lawrence suffered a knee injury. Although he didn’t return to the game, there was only one series left in which the Jaguars just ran the clock out. However, it has just been reported that Lawrence will start tonight after he was a game time decision.
Jaguars HC Doug Pederson told me Trevor Lawrence will start tonight.
Lawrence just finished his 20-minute pregame workout where he showed good lateral movement making cuts and throwing on the run. He dapped up trainers + QB Mike McCoy with smile headed back into locker room. pic.twitter.com/CDV5prPTeu
— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) October 19, 2023
When the Jaguars vs. Saints odds came out on Sunday night, Jacksonville was a 1.5-point favorite. But after the initial reports about Lawrence’s injury made it seem uncertain that he would be ready to go this week and C.J. Beathard would get the start, the line got up to as high as Saints -3. That shows how value to the point spread a quarterback like Lawrence is.
Now that it has been confirmed that Lawrence will play tonight, although most likely not at 100% coming off a short week, the line has settled in at Saints -2.
Even with Lawrence tonight, this could be a difficult matchup for this Jaguars passing offense. They’ll be facing a New Orleans defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest yards per game and sixth-fewest points per game. The Saints’ pass defense, in particular, has been impressive, ranking fourth in success rate so far this season.
Tonight’s game, however, features two teams headed in opposite directions. After starting 2-0, the Saints have lost three of their last four games and have really struggled on offense. Derek Carr was supposed to bring stability to the QB position they haven’t had since Drew Brees retired, but it’s been a slow start for the former Raider. Through six games, he has a QBR of just 51.3, which is 17th best in the NFL.
This game is a pivotal matchup for two teams hoping to gain ground in their division races, but who will come out of tonight victorious? Let’s check out the Jaguars vs. Saints predictions, picks against the spread, player prop bets, and more from the PFN Betting team.
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Lines, Start Time, and More
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless stated otherwise.
- Spread
Saints -1.5 - Moneyline
Jaguars +110, Saints -130 - Over/Under
41 - Game Time
8:15 p.m. ET - Location
Caesars Superdome - How To Watch
Amazon Prime Video
Bearman: Two weeks ago, I would’ve hopped all over the Saints in this matchup — the Jaguars’ offense was terrible. A trip to London seems to have revived the offense, but now, they face the unknown with Lawrence’s knee injury. Even if he plays, he won’t be 100%.
Meanwhile, New Orleans enters this game with a top-five defense and an underperforming offense. All six Saints games have gone under the total this season, so that’s where I’m headed here. So far this season, I’m 5-0 betting unders that are 41.5 or lower.
Pick: Under 40 (-110 at DraftKings)
Blewis: I’m going to have to agree with Bearman here. This game has the makings of being low-scoring for a variety of reasons. One, it’s a prime-time game — unders are 14-6 in these spots this season and 50-28 since 2022.
Secondly, this matchup features two offenses that should struggle to score points. On one hand, you have a Jaguars offense with either a banged-up Lawrence or Beathard on a short week going against one of the best defenses in the NFL and a Saints offense that hasn’t scored more than 20 points in a game this season.
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If this is going to be a low-scoring game like I think it will be, then I also like the Saints here, regardless of who is playing quarterback for the Jaguars. I was on the Texans last week, but the Saints outplayed them despite the loss — having gained more than 130 yards of offense but lost the turnover battle and had more than twice as many penalties.
As of right now, it looks as if Lawrence will be playing after all. If/when he gets cleared, there should be a slight adjustment to the spread and total should both shift in opposite directions I’m leaning, so I’m going to wait a bit before placing these bets.
Picks: Saints -2 (-110 at DraftKings), Under 40 (-110 at DraftKings)
Soppe: The top target earner against the Jaguars this season has seen, on average, 26.1% of targets and scored in five of six games. If we’re willing to label Derek Carr (shoulder) as reasonably healthy last week, Chris Olave has earned a 27.7% target share when his signal-caller is in good health.
The Jags are the eighth-blitz-heaviest team in the league, a style of play that encourages quick decisions. Those quick decisions are often to the team’s alpha option.
Is there any question who that man is in New Orleans these days?
Olave’s aDOT is over 14 yards again this season, giving him big-play potential if left in single coverage due to the blitz. But that’s not his only path to success. A quick hitter to him has the potential to turn into a monster gain, with the Jags missing 7.5 tackles per game (eighth most).
Picks: Chris Olave over 61.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel), Olave anytime TD (+190 at DraftKings)
Katz: I usually stick to player props, but there’s a total that stands out to me.
This is a game featuring two underwhelming offenses on a short week. Carr is just getting over a shoulder sprain, while Trevor Lawrence (if he’s active) is playing through a knee sprain. I’m expecting both of these teams to start slow and for this game to have a very lethargic pace to open up.
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Jaguars games have gone over seven points in the first quarter just once this season. The Saints have gone over just twice. This very well may end up pushing, but I would be quite surprised if it lost.
My guess is the first quarter ends with one of these teams leading 3-0. If you wanted to sprinkle on no touchdown in the first quarter at +145, I wouldn’t hate that either.
Pick: First quarter under 7 (+100 at Caesars)