When constructing same game parlay picks, many sportsbooks require you to take “over” and “yes” bets, a spot that can be tough with a sub-40-point total.
That just means we have to get creative when creating our Week 7 betting card, and there’s nothing wrong with that!
Our Betting Lines page has the freshest lines and promos to get BANG for your buck. PFN’s FREE Parlay Calculator and Betting Odds Calculator are also available for your betting process! New to sports betting? Check out our guide on How to Bet on the NFL. Visit our Sports Betting Legal Tracker on how to bet legally in the U.S.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints Odds
- Spread
Saints -2 - Moneyline
Jaguars +110, Saints -130 - Total
41
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with: answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.
Trivia Question: The Jacksonville Jaguars offense is centered around a pair of 2021 first-round picks: Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne. Can you name the two players from Florida who were drafted in the first round that season?
With neither quarterback 100 percent healthy, this is a tricky one to handicap. On the plus side, we have a weatherproof game with reasonably healthy rosters outside of the QB position, and that’s enough to get me to string three player props together.
What a potentially limited Trevor Lawrence will look like is anyone’s guess, but given how the New Orleans Saints defend, I think we can speculate on this offense.
For the season, New Orleans grades out as one of the most sure tackling teams in the league (third-fewest missed tackles per game), and that has defenses opting for deep passes (fourth-highest opponent aDOT). With that in mind, here are the aDOTs for the primary Jaguars receivers this season:
- Calvin Ridley: 12.3, 30th in the NFL
- Zay Jones: 10.8, 49th
- Christian Kirk: 8.2, 75th
See where I’m going here?
The Saints are attacked deep and tackle well, putting shallow receivers in a tough spot. In games this season with a 30-yard catch, Kirk is averaging 90.7 receiving yards, and in all other games, his per-game average dips to 37.3. This isn’t a great big-play spot, putting us in a potential floor situation for the Jags slot man.
The total is low in the game for a reason (both teams are top-10 in possession rate), so Kirk could struggle if the possession count is low.
On the other side of the ball, we could be looking at a headline grabber. The top target earner against the Jaguars this season has seen, on average, 26.1% of targets and scored in five of six games.
If we are willing to label Derek Carr (shoulder) as reasonably healthy last week, Chris Olave has earned a 27.7% target share when his signal-caller is in good health. The Jags are the eighth-blitz-heaviest team in the league, a style of play that encourages quick decisions, and those quick decisions often are to the team’s alpha option.
Is there any question about who that man is in New Orleans these days?
Olave’s aDOT is over 14 yards again this season, giving him big-play potential if left in single coverage due to the blitz, but that’s not his only path to success. A quick hitter to him has the potential to turn into a monster gain, with the Jags missing 7.5 tackles per game (eighth-most).
- Trivia Answer: Kyle Pitts (fourth overall to the Falcons) and Kadarius Toney (20th overall to the Giants)
- Same Game Parlay Pick: Christian Kirk under 54.5 receiving yards, Chris Olave over 61.5 receiving yards, Chris Olave anytime TD
- Odds: +659 (at FanDuel)