One of the key components to fantasy football success is making the correct lineup decisions. Here to help you make those decisions are our positional start ’em and sit ’em picks.
Fantasy decisions are more important than ever with our seasons now on the line every week. So, let’s look at our Week 15 start/sit plays for the RB position.
Which RBs Should You Start in Fantasy This Week?
David Montgomery, Detroit Lions (vs. DEN)
The emergence of Jahmyr Gibbs has undoubtedly lowered David Montgomery’s weekly ceiling. Even so, did you know last week was the first time all season that Montgomery 1) failed to score a touchdown and 2) failed to reach double-digit fantasy points, excluding the game he injured his ribs and left early?
Montgomery has been incredibly reliable all season and still managed 11.5 fantasy points against the Chicago Bears despite not scoring.
This week, Montgomery will enjoy a home matchup against the Denver Broncos, who allow the most points per game to running backs. They are surrendering 5.5 yards per carry and 124 rushing yards per game.
The Lions are at home and coming off a bad road loss to the Bears. I’m expecting them to bounce back in a big way. That should mean a positive game script and TD opportunities for Montgomery. Start him.
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. IND)
It’s been a very disappointing three-week stretch for Jaylen Warren. After scoring 14.3+ fantasy points from Weeks 9-11, his 8.0 fantasy points last week marked his best week since.
Fortunately, things should be much better this week on the road against an Indianapolis Colts defense that allows the third-most ppg to running backs.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
The Colts have been below average at stopping RBs as receivers, with a healthy 17.4% of their total receiving yards allowed going to the position.
The Steelers are still in the thick of the playoff race, but they absolutely need a win this week. I’m not saying they get there, but they should play much better against the Colts than they did against the Patriots, and Warren should be a big part of that.
Which RBs Should You Sit in Fantasy This Week?
Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks (vs. PHI)
Early in the season, Kenneth Walker III was playing upwards of 70% of the snaps most weeks. Beginning around Week 8, Zach Charbonnet started to push him for more touches. After Walker missed two weeks and Charbonnet played well, this is now officially a timeshare.
In a mostly neutral game script, I expect Walker and Charbonnet to essentially alternate drives. That means for Walker to have a chance at RB1 numbers, he needs a positive game script.
The Eagles are coming off consecutive losses, and the Seahawks are likely starting Drew Lock again. Are we anticipating a positive game script this week? I most certainly am not.
As if that isn’t reason enough to fade Walker, the Eagles are a massive pass-funnel defense. They allow the most ppg to quarterbacks but the fourth-fewest to running backs — allowing just 0.3 touchdowns per game to the position.
The only reason Walker even got close to double digits last week was because he caught four passes for 33 yards. He hadn’t caught more than one in his previous four games. I wouldn’t bank on that bailing him out again. It could be a rough day at the office for Walker.
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals (vs. SF)
It’s great for James Conner that he is rested and healthy following a bye. That at least gives him a chance at a better-than-expected game.
When we last saw him, he posted season-best numbers against the Steelers, carrying the ball 25 times for 105 yards and two touchdowns.
MORE: Week 15 Start/Sit Options — WR | QB | TE
Unfortunately, Conner gets the San Francisco 49ers this week. When these teams last met, Conner ran the ball 11 times for 52 yards and caught one of two targets for four yards.
The 49ers currently allow the fifth-fewest ppg to running backs. Fantasy managers should expect more of the same from Conner this week. Sit him if you can.
Trending Searches for RB Start/Sit
Did you know that we have a Start/Sit Optimizer here at Pro Football Network? It’s completely free to use, and it allows you to enter up to six players to find the best option to plug into your starting lineup.
It also allows us to see the most popular trending searches, so we’ve jotted some of them down here to help provide some clarity.
Should You Start David Montgomery or Joe Mixon?
Joe Mixon has been far better than I ever could’ve imagined in a post-Joe Burrow world. He’s scored 29.7 and 21.5 fantasy points, respectively, in his past two outings with Jake Browning at quarterback. Mixon has also benefited from having a nose for the end zone, scoring in six of his last seven games.
I am concerned that may come to an end in what I suspect will be an ugly, low-scoring game against a surprisingly tough Vikings defense that allows the seventh-fewest ppg to running backs.
Montgomery has the soft matchup, and dare I say he’s a near lock to score this week. With that said, volume does matter. Although Mixon now has his own explosive rookie to deal with, he’s still seeing more work than Montgomery, especially as a receiver.
The Start/Sit Optimizer has this 13.3-12.2 in favor of Mixon. I agree. Start Mixon.
Should You Start Kenneth Walker III or Ezekiel Elliott?
Can you imagine asking this question ever again after last season? Yet, here we are, in the year 2023, and not only is this a legitimate question to ask, the answer is Ezekiel Elliott.
The Start/Sit Optimizer has this close, with Elliott projected for 10.3 fantasy points against Walker’s 10.0. I don’t have it that close, with Elliott nine spots above Walker in my Week 15 rankings.
After Charbonnet played quite well during Walker’s two-game absence, this backfield has become a committee. With Rhamondre Stevenson out, Elliott played 91% of the snaps last week. I fully expect Zeke to play every snap he can handle once again.
Walker has a bad matchup against a pass-funnel defense, which should lead to Charbonnet out-snapping him. Elliott has an average matchup but will be inundated with volume. This is an easy one for me. Start Zeke.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!
