After two seasons without producing a national champion, the 16 teams of the Southeastern Conference (SEC) enter the upcoming college football campaign looking to reassert their authority on the landscape of the sport. Which teams have the best chance of running the conference and reaching the postseason?
Our 2025 SEC football schedule projection uses the PFSN College Football Playoff Predictor to simulate the entire 2025 campaign, complete with final standings, an SEC Championship Game prediction, and week-by-week results. Let’s get into it.
SEC Championship Game Frontrunners: Texas, South Carolina
The Arch Manning era has officially arrived in Austin, as the latest member of one of sport’s most successful families takes over the starting role for the Texas Longhorns following Quinn Ewers’ departure to the NFL.
Although we’ve not seen enough of Manning in a college setting to confidently predict dominance, he has a stellar supporting cast on both sides of the ball that should help him navigate the 2025 SEC football schedule.
The defense returns the best pieces of a unit that earned the second-highest PFSN College Defense+ grade (92.18, A-) from the 2024 college football season.
Subsequently, the Longhorns are the highest-ranked SEC team in our most recent 2025 college football power rankings. They’re also the oddsmakers’ favorite to win the conference, with +250 odds available from DraftKings Sportsbook.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see them return to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game, as our College Football Playoff Predictor predicted.
What might be considered more of a surprise would be for Texas to face the South Carolina Gamecocks in the conference title game.
Yet, Shane Beamer’s team is one of the form programs in college football, having won out in the second half of the 2024 regular season. The Gamecocks went 4-0 against the SEC and beat the Clemson Tigers, defeating four ranked teams.
The architect of that success, quarterback LaNorris Sellers, returns to the program as an early Heisman Trophy contender. He led South Carolina to the 14th-best 2024 college football offense, per the PFSN Offense+ metric, with an 83.5 (B) grade. His combination of arm talent and top-tier athleticism should terrorize opposing defensive coordinators in the SEC.
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A defense that finished the 2024 season with the eighth-highest PFSN Defense+ grade (88.42, B+) lost some pivotal parts, but Beamer added starting talent and depth from the transfer portal while returning impressive pass rusher Dylan Stewart.
Currently a +2500 long shot to win the conference, South Carolina could be the surprise of the entire 2025 college football campaign.
The Contenders: LSU, Ole Miss, Alabama
One of the most exciting elements of the 2025 SEC football schedule is that, with so many talented teams that also contain question marks, programs can take wins off each other at every turn. Any team could emerge as a contender, which brings us nicely to the LSU Tigers.
Our power rankings are lower on the boys from Baton Rouge than other national outlets, but there’s a legitimate path to them emerging as an SEC contender.
That road starts with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, one of the highest-graded returning passers from the 2024 college football season, after throwing for 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns a year ago.
#LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier (6-2, 200)
In-rhythm passer with clean footwork. Flexible arm to make standout completions. Confidently throws to spots with fearless anticipation. pic.twitter.com/JeaY6x7Yib
— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid) May 16, 2025
The Tigers’ defense graded higher by PFSN College Defense+ (29th nationally) than their 59th-ranked scoring defense (24.3 points per game allowed suggests. If they can figure out the Harold Perkins Jr. conundrum, LSU has a terrifying linebacker tandem with Whit Weeks returning as one of college football’s most impactful players.
HC Brian Kelly also added playmakers from the transfer portal to both sides of the ball. Still, their season will hinge on the play in the trenches.
The Tigers are young in the heart of the defensive front, and how do they keep Nussmeier upright in the pocket after losing both starting offensive tackles to the NFL? LSU is a rare commodity at the sharp end of the SEC, boasting surety at the quarterback position.
The Ole Miss Rebels, meanwhile, lead a string of teams that wave goodbye to their established starter as they embark on the 2025 SEC football schedule. QB Austin Simmons has a tough task replacing Jaxson Dart. He’s well-respected within Oxford, but that doesn’t alter the fact that he’s unproven.
That said, we’ve come to expect an offseason of substantial change with little drop-off in results during the Lane Kiffin era at Ole Miss. The transfer portal king retooled his roster in typical style this fall, with more than 10 newcomers expected to take on starting roles, mainly on a defense that defied the usual standard of Rebels’ teams by being a top 25 unit since 2019 (88.90, B+).
There are offensive question marks in Tuscaloosa, too. Jalen Milroe wasn’t always held in the same esteem as other recent Alabama Crimson Tide signal callers, but he earned a spot inside the top 50 highest-graded quarterbacks since 2019 despite leading a unit that “only” scored 33.8 points per game in 2024.
With just two months until action commences, ‘Bama HC Kalen DeBoer doesn’t even know who will power his offense through the 2025 SEC football schedule (or isn’t letting on if he is confident in a starter).
Ty Simpson, Austin Mack, and freshman passer Keelon Russell are vying for the honor, with a grand total of 53 career passing attempts between the three inexperienced players.
The victor will at least have stellar protection, with Parker Brailsford and Kadyn Proctor returning as two of the top offensive linemen in the conference. They will also have one of the most dangerous outlets in college football as Ryan Williams looks to build on his impactful freshman campaign. Running back Jam Miller is also starting to earn some national attention.
Perhaps a return to a ground-game-led offense backed by a solid defense will be key to Alabama returning to the summit of the SEC. Although there were some notable offseason losses from the 88.18 (B+) graded 2024 defense, the spine of the Alabama unit returns, with linebackers Deontae Lawson and Justin Jefferson productive in multiple phases last fall.
Still, nine wins could be the ceiling for the Crimson Tide, concurring with the projection for the 2025 SEC football schedule provided by our College Football Playoff Predictor.
Middle of the Pack: Missouri, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas A&M, Florida, Oklahoma
After notching consecutive double-digit win seasons, the Missouri Tigers could be set to dip back into single figures this fall. Eli Drinkwitz has done an exceptional job with this team, but with a 2025 SEC football schedule featuring four teams ranked in the preseason, our projections put the reigning Music City Bowl champions at 8-4 overall, with a 4-4 conference record.
Part of Missouri’s success of the past two seasons has been a swirling defense. Between returning players like Daylan Carnell and Tristan Newson and transfer portal additions like Nate Johnson and Jalen Catalon, there shouldn’t be an issue on that side of the ball. Offensively, a strong rushing identity should continue after landing Ahmad Hardy from Louisiana-Monroe.
That said, I don’t think you can overestimate Brady Cook’s impact on the Tigers. The departed quarterback leaves a substantial hole for Missouri to fill. With all due respect to Beau Pribula, we haven’t seen enough during his two seasons with the Penn State Nittany Lions to get overly excited about him as the replacement under center for the 2025 season.
Much of the 2023-2025 Tennessee Volunteers offseason was dominated by the quarterback situation. The Nico Iamaleava saga ended with the one-year starter transferring to UCLA in what was tantamount to a swap with former Appalachian State star Joey Aguilar. That isn’t as substantial a drop-off as some might think, and the offense will be just fine.
What could hamstring the Vols and suffocate their attempts at another 10-plus win season, though, is the defense. Tennessee quietly had one of the top units in the country last fall (87.6, B+), but don’t return any player who had more than two sacks in 2024. How All-American cornerback Jermod McCoy bounces back from a torn ACL suffered in January remains to be seen.
History teaches us that it’s perilous to write off the Georgia Bulldogs in the preseason, and many will scoff at our College Football Playoff predictor kicking out an 8-4 overall record with a 4-4 marker against their 2025 SEC football schedule.
It’s the sort of fodder that Kirby Smart’s team uses as motivational disrespect, but there are reasons to be cautious about Georgia.
The Bulldogs have made themselves a consistent contender based on their defense, but this front seven lacks some of the star power we’ve seen previously. The secondary is strong, and someone always emerges to set the tone, yet this isn’t the juggernaut we’re used to as they prepare for a schedule featuring five teams ranked in the preseason.
There are offensive concerns, too. Some of their most productive players from 2024 are gone, although the return of running back Nate Frazier is pivotal. Gunner Stockton projects to be the QB1 for the 2025 campaign after registering a 68.0 (D+) grade in his only full game of action for the Bulldogs. On the plus side, the offensive line (as always) is set to be especially strong.
In College Station, while Mike Elko breathed a welcome sense of new life into the Texas A&M Aggies last fall, there is an eerie sense of familiarity about their 2025 projection.
The “12th Man” always recruits well, regardless of head coach, and they’ve been a consistent player in the college football transfer portal market. Yet, they’ve never truly extracted or developed the talent to its maximum potential.
.@KirkHerbstreit and Nick Saban roll the tape on Marcel Reed and Texas A&M’s offense ✍️ pic.twitter.com/Yknwfq6mMA
— College GameDay (@CollegeGameDay) November 2, 2024
After an offseason of roster reloading, there’s an element of expectation around College Station, fueled by bookmakers offering the same odds on the Aggies winning the SEC as Ole Miss. Marcel Reed earned a top-50 College QB+ grade last fall (78.2, C+) and has the uber-talented Kevin “KC” Concepcion at his disposal to give this A&M offense exciting potential.
However, their 2025 SEC football schedule is brutal, with road trips to Baton Rouge and Austin, plus an out-of-conference clash with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in South Bend. They’ll face five teams ranked in the preseason, and don’t be surprised if each of those results in a defeat, pushing their overall record into seven-win territory.
There’s a similar story for the Florida Gators. The flashes of D.J. Lagway’s upside were tantalizing last fall, and you could argue that he has one of the best receiving rooms in the country to work with, alongside one of the top young running backs in the country in Jaden Baugh. There are shades of the 2020 offense (89.43, B+ College Offense+ grade) if everything clicks.
The Gators’ defense also returns nearly all the most productive pieces from a unit that ranked in the top 50th in the country for points allowed last fall (23.1 per game). Tyreak Sapp is a monster, and Caleb Banks is one of the best defensive players in the country.
Does losing Jack Pyburn hurt? Yes. Still, there’s enough talent (and depth) for Florida to field a quality unit.
They’ll need it. The Gators are a good team on paper, but the SEC football schedule they’ll have to navigate is eye-watering. They have just three conference games in The Swamp, plus trips to Baton Rouge, Oxford, and College Station.
They face seven teams earning preseason top-25 rankings, including three within the top 10 (Texas, LSU, and Georgia). That’s a problem.
RELATED: Analyst Reveals Shocking Prediction for Texas and Oklahoma in the 2025 Red River Showdown
After going 6-7 with a 2-6 SEC record in the Oklahoma Sooners’ conference debut, Brent Venables has done everything within his power to try to save his job. A repeat performance for the program would likely see the end of his tenure. You never want to see someone lose their employment, but looking at the 2025 SEC football schedule, more than six wins are hard to find.
On four consecutive weekends, they play the Red River Rivalry, at South Carolina, vs. Ole Miss, and at Tennessee. A bye week separates a trip to Tuscaloosa to face Alabama. That’s five potential losses in six weeks. Venables’ team also has an early clash with the Michigan Wolverines and wraps up their season against LSU. That’s no joke of a schedule.
During Venables’ stint as the head coach, the Oklahoma defense has improved every season, but the offense was putrid a year ago.
The program has turned to Ben Arbuckle and his former quarterback, John Mateer (the highest-graded returning passer in our College QB+metric), to bring the firepower back to Norman. Expect improvements, but our projection is realistic here.
The Bottom Five: Mississippi State, Arkansas, Kentucky, Auburn, and Vanderbilt
After going 0-8 in conference play and 2-10 overall without a Power Four win, it would be a surprise to see the Mississippi State Bulldogs leap to a 6-6 record with three SEC wins.
They tried to overhaul the roster this offseason, notably adding former South Alabama rusher Fluff Bothwell, but there are notable talent gaps compared to most other teams within the conference.
Scheduling the Arizona State Sun Devils as an out-of-conference matchup means the Bulldogs face seven of the teams currently considered as the top 25 in the country.
There are no easy SEC games on the schedule (at Arkansas might be the easiest, but it’s no walkover), and they’ll have to overcome 2024 giant killer Northern Illinois to escape their first games with three wins.
Our 2025 SEC football projections are also relatively kind to the Arkansas Razorbacks, preserving a 3-5 record in the SEC while repeating the 6-6 overall tally from a year ago. Based on their roster and schedule, I would say Sam Pittman’s team has a better chance of hitting this prediction than Mississippi State, with their November 1 clash in Fayetteville being a key moment.
Theoretically, Arkansas’ offense should be potent. A unit with the 15th-best College Offense+ grade in 2024 (83.35, B) added a host of talent, including former Charlotte pass catcher O’Mega Blake, who should become a go-to weapon for Taylen Green.
They’ll need to be stronger on defense, however, to not slip below six wins with Texas, LSU, Tennessee, and Ole Miss on their schedule.
The Kentucky Wildcats took an interesting approach to building an SEC roster this offseason, adding an influx of highly regarded Group of Five offensive linemen (notably Alex Wollschlaeger and Shiyazh Pete).
They boosted their running back room with former Oregon and Nebraska rusher Dante Dowdell, but the success of this season will hinge on the return of Zach Calzada to the SEC.
His last full season under center in the conference was problematic for Kentucky’s projection. The then-Texas A&M quarterback received a College QB+ grade of 69.1 (D+), the 133rd overall grade in 2021. He’s been productive at the FCS level since, but with all the top receivers leaving the Wildcats via the transfer portal, it might be tough sledding this fall.
The Hugh Freeze charm offensive has paid off in roster construction for the Auburn Tigers. The program boasts one of the top wide receiver rooms in the country after adding Eric Singleton Jr. to Cam Coleman and Malcolm Simmons. Meanwhile, the defense is stacked with talented young playmakers who helped the team rank 28th in scoring defense.
Auburn’s problem last year was the offense, and more importantly, the quarterback position. Freeze’s answer to that problem was to bring in the much-maligned Jackson Arnold. The former Oklahoma passer laboured to just 5.8 yards per pass attempt a year ago, posting a 68.8 (D+) College QB+ grade. A Friday night opener at Baylor gives him an early test to pass.
For all the Vanderbilt Commodores fans writing DMs of condemnation for our SEC football schedule projection, know that I would be blown away if the program slipped back to a winless conference campaign.
With Diego Pavia winning his waiver to retain eligibility, they return the most important piece of one of the incredible moments of college football history.
“GAMES LIKE THIS CHANGE YOUR LIFE!”
DIEGO PAVIA AFTER UPSETTING NO. 1 ALABAMA 😤 @VandyFootball pic.twitter.com/IclRKTOjzw
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) October 5, 2024
Pavia’s do-or-die, gung-ho style of playing the quarterback position should ensure that the Commodores are always in contention. Vanderbilt added some stellar offensive line pieces this offseason, too, while Eli Stowers is a tight end to know. The defense kept plenty of pieces from a first top-50 scoring unit since 2016.
Clashes with Auburn and Kentucky offer the Commodores the best chance of conference wins, but it would take another couple of David vs. Goliath-type upsets like 2024 for the program to hit six overall wins.
With the PFSN College Football Playoff Predictor, like us, you can predict how the 2025 SEC slate will shake out. Below are our predictions for conference play.
2025 SEC Football Schedule, Week 2
- Ole Miss Rebels 24, Kentucky Wildcats 14
2025 SEC Football Schedule, Week 3
- Florida Gators 22, LSU Tigers 34
- Arkansas Razorbacks 20, Ole Miss Rebels 30
- Vanderbilt Commodores 15, South Carolina Gamecocks 27
- Georgia Bulldogs 14, Tennessee Volunteers 29
2025 SEC Football Schedule, Week 4
- South Carolina Gamecocks 24, Missouri Tigers 10
- Auburn Tigers 25, Oklahoma Sooners 39
2025 SEC Football Schedule, Week 5
- Alabama Crimson Tide 14, Georgia Bulldogs 24
- LSU Tigers 14, Ole Miss Rebels 27
- Tennessee Volunteers 40, Mississippi State Bulldogs 24
- Kentucky Wildcats 16, South Carolina Gamecocks 33
- Auburn Tigers 34, Texas A&M Aggies 14
2025 SEC Football Schedule, Week 6
- Vanderbilt Commodores 21, Alabama Crimson Tide 39
- Texas Longhorns 39, Florida Gators 27
- Kentucky Wildcats 19, Georgia Bulldogs 33
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 10, Texas A&M Aggies 21
2025 SEC Football Schedule, Week 7
- Georgia Bulldogs 35, Auburn Tigers 23
- South Carolina Gamecocks 19, LSU Tigers 30
- Alabama Crimson Tide 17, Missouri Tigers 37
- Arkansas Razorbacks 19, Tennessee Volunteers 35
- Oklahoma Sooners 21, Texas Longhorns 37
- Florida Gators 17, Texas A&M Aggies 31
2025 SEC Football Schedule, Week 8
- Tennessee Volunteers 13, Alabama Crimson Tide 31
- Texas A&M Aggies 27, Arkansas Razorbacks 10
- Missouri Tigers 22, Auburn Tigers 40
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 13, Florida Gators 24
- Ole Miss Rebels 29, Georgia Bulldogs 14
- Texas Longhorns 36, Kentucky Wildcats 21
- Oklahoma Sooners 21, South Carolina Gamecocks 40
- LSU Tigers 24, Vanderbilt Commodores 10
2025 SEC Football Schedule, Week 9
- Auburn Tigers 10, Arkansas Razorbacks 27
- Tennessee Volunteers 17, Kentucky Wildcats 34
- Texas A&M Aggies 10, LSU Tigers 21
- Texas Longhorns 10, Mississippi State Bulldogs 30
- Ole Miss Rebels 35, Oklahoma Sooners 20
- Alabama Crimson Tide 21, South Carolina Gamecocks 39
- Missouri Tigers 32, Vanderbilt Commodores 19
2025 SEC Football Schedule, Week 10
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 34, Arkansas Razorbacks 14
- Kentucky Wildcats 38, Auburn Tigers 20
- Georgia Bulldogs 14, Florida Gators 24
- South Carolina Gamecocks 39, Ole Miss Rebels 20
- Oklahoma Sooners 39, Tennessee Volunteers 27
- Vanderbilt Commodores 27, Texas Longhorns 40
2025 SEC Football Schedule, Week 11
- LSU Tigers 21, Alabama Crimson Tide 35
- Florida Gators 27, Kentucky Wildcats 10
- Georgia Bulldogs 31, Mississippi State Bulldogs 14
- Texas A&M Aggies 27, Missouri Tigers 13
- Auburn Tigers 38, Vanderbilt Commodores 23
2025 SEC Football Schedule, Week 12
- Oklahoma Sooners 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 33
- Texas Longhorns 39, Georgia Bulldogs 24
- Arkansas Razorbacks 33, LSU Tigers 15
- Florida Gators 37, Ole Miss Rebels 17
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 13, Missouri Tigers 30
- South Carolina Gamecocks 35, Texas A&M Aggies 21
2025 SEC Football Schedule, Week 13
- Tennessee Volunteers 38, Florida Gators 21
- Missouri Tigers 31, Oklahoma Sooners 19
- Arkansas Razorbacks 20, Texas Longhorns 37
- Kentucky Wildcats 34, Vanderbilt Commodores 21
2025 SEC Football Schedule, Week 14
- Missouri Tigers 35, Arkansas Razorbacks 40
- Alabama Crimson Tide 30, Auburn Tigers 19
- Ole Miss Rebels 14, Mississippi State Bulldogs 34
- LSU Tigers 30, Oklahoma Sooners 21
- Vanderbilt Commodores 13, Tennessee Volunteers 27
- Texas A&M Aggies 17, Texas Longhorns 36
