We are now in the back half of the fantasy football season. Player values have mostly crystalized. Draft-day cost has given way to in-season performance, as we now have a larger sample size of what these players have done.
Unraveling all that we saw in Week 10 and translating it into Week 11 WR trade targets is where fantasy managers can differentiate themselves.
To help you get your head around it all, here are our thoughts on some WRs to buy low or sell high entering Week 11.
Which WRs Should You Trade for in Fantasy Football?
DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
Has any wide receiver had worse touchdown luck than DK Metcalf this season? The man has 552 receiving yards but just two touchdowns.
Katz’s Other Week 11 Trade Targets: QB | TE | RB
I believe the touchdowns are coming. The Seahawks’ schedule from Weeks 14-17 is as good as it gets. Metcalf could absolutely smash in fantasy’s most important weeks. He remains the Seahawks’ WR1 with the highest weekly ceiling. When the time comes, I expect him to excel, largely at the expense of Tyler Lockett (a bit of foreshadowing). Buy him now.
DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans
I am including DeAndre Hopkins here for a second straight week because I still believe in what I’m seeing. Hopkins only caught three passes for 27 yards in Week 10, but he saw eight targets. That’s now 25 targets in three games with Will Levis.
It’s certainly disappointing that Hopkins couldn’t take advantage of a favorable matchup against the Bucs. But I remain optimistic that big games are coming. If you can buy Hopkins as a lowly WR3, you should do it.
Which WRs Should You Trade Away in Fantasy Football?
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
I really like Lockett — I always have. This isn’t about getting rid of a player likely to decline in production. This is about trying to capitalize on a player posting a big game.
Lockett just caught eight of 10 targets for 92 yards and a touchdown against the Commanders in Week 10. It was his second-best game of the season. He now has three games with 18+ fantasy points but five with less than 7.5 fantasy points as well.
The reality is Lockett has been erratic this season. He will have more of these games. He will also have more games where he completely flops. He’s more of a WR3 than a WR2. So, if you can sell him as a WR2, that is a +EV move for your fantasy team.
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
Deebo Samuel’s 2021 elite WR1 season is one of the biggest outliers in the history of fantasy football. Yet, it feels like his valuation continues to be as if that is still in his realistic range of outcomes.
Samuel has battled several injuries this season, which have undoubtedly hurt his production. But even when he’s been healthy, he hasn’t really been that great.
Samuel’s 129 yards in Week 3 came with Brandon Aiyuk out. In his other healthy games, he’s never topped 63 receiving yards. He’s hit double-digit fantasy points without a touchdown just once.
There’s no denying Samuel has a high weekly ceiling. But he is the farthest thing from a reliable option. This past week, he got to 13.9 fantasy points because of a rushing touchdown. Use that to your advantage. Claim he’s trending toward being a WR1 again. And sell him for an actual WR2 because Samuel is nothing more than a WR3.
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Should You Trade Deebo Samuel for DK Metcalf?
Technically, Samuel has played in seven games this season. But he’s really only played in five where he wasn’t a decoy/didn’t get hurt early. Yet, he’s scored three touchdowns. Metcalf has played in eight games. He’s scored just twice.
Despite Metcalf’s lack of touchdowns, he’s been able to crest double-digit fantasy points in all but one game. If Metcalf could score at the rate at which he should, we’d be talking about a WR1 in fantasy.
Outside of Samuel’s outlier 2021 season, he’s never been a WR1. He’s never really even been a WR2.
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The volume is never going to be there for Samuel. Not when Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey are all healthy.
I’m not sure which one of these guys is perceived as the better fantasy asset. But for me, it’s clearly Metcalf. If you can turn Samuel into Metcalf, you should absolutely do that.
Should You Trade Zay Flowers for DeAndre Hopkins?
An ascending rookie talent who might be hitting a midseason wall vs. an aging veteran struggling with a rookie QB. I really like Zay Flowers. But he’s never going to see elite volume in a Ravens offense.
While Flowers has mostly avoided duds, he lacks any sort of ceiling. His best game this season remains Week 1, when he scored 17.7 fantasy points.
Meanwhile, we’ve seen Hopkins post massive games. He has one with 22.0 and another with 34.8. Flowers does not have that in him.
But Flowers definitely has a higher weekly floor. Despite seeing relatively consistently strong target shares, Hopkins has six games with under 11 fantasy points. It’s a bit counterintuitive that Hopkins has the more reliable target floor but is nevertheless the more volatile player.
Ultimately, volume is king in fantasy football. I still believe in D-Hop’s talent, and he has a better role in his offense than Flowers has in his. As a result, I would move Flowers for Hopkins if I could.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!