The Baltimore Ravens will face the Pittsburgh Steelers on Wild Card Weekend. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding WR Zay Flowers.
Is Zay Flowers Playing vs. the Steelers?
Head coach John Harbaugh noted Thursday that Flowers (knee) won’t play in Saturday night’s Wild Card round game against the Steelers.
Flowers, who sprained his right knee in this past Saturday’s win over the Browns, didn’t practice this week and will target a potential return to action in the Divisional Round, should Baltimore defeat Pittsburgh.
In Flowers’ absence, Rashod Bateman is in line to work as the team’s top wideout this weekend, and Nelson Agholor, Tylan Wallace, and Devontez Walker are also slated to mix in.
We’ll continue to monitor the Ravens’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Zay Flowers’ Fantasy Outlook
Flowers isn’t playing this weekend due to a knee injury. It goes without saying that this is a situation worth monitoring.
For playoff-long formats, I’d keep an eye on things as long as possible, but your instinct is going to fade any uncertain situation. I don’t have a problem with that, but it’s also not unique. If Flowers’ status is TBD when you’re drafting, his ADP is going to sink, and it’s on you to determine when the right time to pounce is.
I love the player, but even if he were playing, I don’t like this Wild Card matchup. If you think Baltimore advances, then we are in a buy situation because I do like how Flowers’ skill set plays in a likely matchup with the Bills.
For this weekend, we have two games of data when it comes to how Baltimore’s offense wants to utilize its WR1 in this specific spot, and, to be honest, I wasn’t loving it.
Flowers posted a 14+ yard aDOT in both Steelers games during the regular season, something that is very much outside of his normal usage pattern (three such games all season when not facing Pittsburgh). Those targets, naturally, come with more risk, which was reflected in his 50% catch rate across those two games (otherwise: 65.7%).
The more you dive into the target data, the more bizarre things get. We are looking at the smallest of samples, but a 19.5-yard aDOT from the slot doesn’t happen by accident (all other games: 6.6-yard aDOT from the slot). If I’m investing in Flowers in any given week, I’m doing it with the understanding that I’m betting on efficiency.
I’m not betting on splash plays; Rashod Bateman does that.
I’m not betting on touchdowns; Derrick Henry and Mark Andrews do that.
If I’m not confident in the type of routes that are going to be run or the health, how could I have justified going in this direction? Add in the fact that this is expected to be a positive game script for Baltimore, and I was having a hard time seeing Flowers being worth the risk this week.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Zay Flowers’ Fantasy Points Projection on Wild Card Weekend
Flowers is projected to score 0 points this weekend.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Steelers' Defense
The Pittsburgh Steelers tumbled out of the top 10 after slumping against superior competition during their four-game losing streak. From Weeks 15-18, Pittsburgh ranked 30th in pass defense success rate and 28th in EPA per play.
The season-long numbers still portray an elite pass defense, but some of the cracks that were there all along fully broke. For instance, the Steelers finished 18th in pressure rate without blitzing, signaling the erosion of a long, ferocious pass rush. They also finished 19th in sack rate despite another All-Pro-worthy season from T.J. Watt.
Injuries in the secondary were a huge problem, with starters Joey Porter Jr., Donte Jackson, and DeShon Elliott all missing multiple games. That ultimately cost Pittsburgh the division and will result in a tough Wild Card road trip to Baltimore.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Zay Flowers’ Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 8:30 AM ET on Saturday, January 11. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Wild Card Superflex Rankings.
Wild Card WR PPR Rankings
1) Justin Jefferson | MIN (at LAR)
2) Puka Nacua | LAR (vs. MIN)
3) A.J. Brown | PHI (vs. GB)
4) Nico Collins | HOU (vs. LAC)
5) Mike Evans | TB (vs. WAS)
6) Ladd McConkey | LAC (at HOU)
7) Terry McLaurin | WAS (at TB)
8) Courtland Sutton | DEN (at BUF)
9) DeVonta Smith | PHI (vs. GB)
10) Jordan Addison | MIN (at LAR)
11) Cooper Kupp | LAR (vs. MIN)
12) George Pickens | PIT (at BAL)
13) Jalen McMillan | TB (vs. WAS)
14) Khalil Shakir | BUF (vs. DEN)
15) Quentin Johnston | LAC (at HOU)
16) Jayden Reed | GB (at PHI)
17) Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN (at BUF)
18) Rashod Bateman | BAL (vs. PIT)
19) Keon Coleman | BUF (vs. DEN)
20) Romeo Doubs | GB (at PHI)
21) Olamide Zaccheaus | WAS (at TB)
22) Amari Cooper | BUF (vs. DEN)
23) Calvin Austin III | PIT (at BAL)
24) Dontayvion Wicks | GB (at PHI)
25) John Metchie III | HOU (vs. LAC)
26) Jalen Nailor | MIN (at LAR)
27) Devaughn Vele | DEN (at BUF)
28) Dyami Brown | WAS (at TB)
29) Sterling Shepard | TB (vs. WAS)
30) Mack Hollins | BUF (vs. DEN)
31) Mike Williams | PIT (at BAL)
32) Tutu Atwell | LAR (vs. MIN)
33) Diontae Johnson | HOU (vs. LAC)
34) Nelson Agholor | BAL (vs. PIT)
35) Demarcus Robinson | LAR (vs. MIN)
36) DJ Chark | LAC (at HOU)
37) Van Jefferson | PIT (at BAL)
38) Jamison Crowder | WAS (at TB)
39) Troy Franklin | DEN (at BUF)
40) Robert Woods | HOU (vs. LAC)
41) Malik Heath | GB (at PHI)
42) Curtis Samuel | BUF (vs. DEN)
43) Xavier Hutchinson | HOU (vs. LAC)
44) Bo Melton | GB (at PHI)
45) Jordan Whittington | LAR (vs. MIN)
46) Tylan Wallace | BAL (vs. PIT)
47) Derius Davis | LAC (at HOU)
48) Jahan Dotson | PHI (vs. GB)
49) Lil'Jordan Humphrey | DEN (at BUF)
50) Luke McCaffrey | WAS (at TB)
51) Tyler Johnson | LAR (vs. MIN)
52) Ryan Miller | TB (vs. WAS)
53) Devontez Walker | BAL (vs. PIT)
54) Trey Palmer | TB (vs. WAS)
55) Johnny Wilson | PHI (vs. GB)
56) Rakim Jarrett | TB (vs. WAS)
57) Brandon Powell | MIN (at LAR)
58) Ainias Smith | PHI (vs. GB)
59) Anthony Miller | BAL (vs. PIT)
60) Christian Watson | GB (at PHI)
61) Tyrell Shavers | BUF (vs. DEN)
62) Roman Wilson | PIT (at BAL)
63) K.J. Osborn | BUF (vs. DEN)
64) Dennis Houston | TB (vs. WAS)
65) Dayton Wade | BAL (vs. PIT)
66) Parris Campbell | PHI (vs. GB)
67) Dez Fitzpatrick | LAC (at HOU)
68) David Sills V | DEN (at BUF)
69) Cody Thompson | TB (vs. WAS)
70) Brycen Tremayne | WAS (at TB)
71) Cornelius Johnson | GB (at PHI)
72) Kazmeir Allen | WAS (at TB)
73) Lucky Jackson | MIN (at LAR)
74) Drake Stoops | LAR (vs. MIN)
75) Danny Gray | PHI (vs. GB)
76) Xavier Smith | LAR (vs. MIN)
Steelers at Ravens Trends and Insights
Pittsburgh Steelers
Team: The 2011 Giants are the only team since 2000 to win a Super Bowl in a season that included a four-game losing streak (the Steelers have lost four straight, totaling just 57 points across those games).
QB: Russell Wilson’s pressure stats are a major concern as we get into the postseason.
- Passer rating when pressured, Weeks 12-14: 120.7 (would lead the NFL)
- Passer rating when pressured, Weeks 15-18: 43.9 (worse than Kirk Cousins)
Offense: Saturday’s loss to the Bengals was Pittsburgh’s first this season when not turning the ball over (they won the first four such instances, out-scoring opponents 100-44 in those games).
Defense: The Steelers are 1-5 this season when allowing opponents to pick up at least 37% of their third downs this season (lone win: Week 13 at Bengals).
Fantasy: The Najee Harris train has run out of gas, partly due to this offense:
- Weeks 6-14: 4.2% production over expectation, 4.0 red zone touches per game
- Weeks 15-18: 16.8% production below expectations, 2.0 red zone touches per game
Betting: Mike Tomlin doesn’t just excel at winning games on the field – his Steelers have posted a winning ATS record in 10 of the past 12 seasons (2024: 11-6, 64.7%).
Baltimore Ravens
Team: The UConn Huskies won a national championship in 2023. Why does that matter? They also won in 1999 and 2011, the season prior to the Ravens winning their most recent Super Bowls.
QB: In the last two seasons under Todd Monken, Lamar Jackson has been a different QB:
- 2023-24: 66.9% complete, 8.4 yards per attempt, 7.0% TD, 1.2% INT
- Career prior: 63.7% complete, 7.4 yards per attempt, 6.1%, 2.3% INT
Offense: The Ravens turned the ball over at least once in six of their first seven games – they’ve done it in just three of 10 games since.
Defense: In Weeks 11-18, Baltimore allowed 1.38 points per drive (Weeks 1-10: 2.30)
Fantasy: Since Week 12, Derrick Henry has been even more dangerous than normal when it comes to chunk gains.
- Weeks 1-11: 37.6% of carries gained 5+ yards (11.7% gained 10+ yards)
- Weeks 12-18: 49.2% of carries gained 5+ yards (17.2% gained 10+ yards)
Betting: No team cashed over tickets more often than the Ravens during the regular season (13-4), quite the change for a franchise that had more unders than overs in each of the four seasons prior.