Zay Flowers’ Dynasty Value | Fantasy Outlook, Ranking, and More

Zay Flowers had a strong rookie season, immediately establishing himself as the Baltimore Ravens‘ top WR. Right out of the gate, he was a fantasy football asset. Where does his dynasty value stand heading into the 2024 offseason?

Zay Flowers’ Dynasty Outlook

The first round of the 2023 NFL Draft had a moment where it looked like a fantasy draft. The Seattle Seahawks made Jaxon Smith-Njigba the first wide receiver off the board, and the next three teams followed suit, all drafting receivers. Flowers wound up third in line.

It was a good landing spot from the perspective that Flowers would immediately be the best receiver on the team. However, it was a tricky one on the basis that the Ravens aren’t exactly known for being a fantasy-friendly spot for wide receivers.

All things considered, Flowers had a pretty great rookie year. First and foremost, Flowers soared past the 500-yard threshold for rookie wide receivers. Anything lower, and his odds of ever mattering in the NFL would be close to zero.

What excites me even more about Flowers is the degree to which he passed the threshold. It shouldn’t come as a huge surprise that rookie WR receiving yardage correlates with future success — the more yardage, the better.

Flowers caught 77 passes for 858 yards. Since 2011, there have been 40 wide receivers to reach 800 yards in their rookie seasons.

Twenty of them posted a top-12 season at some point in their career. Another 12 posted a top-24 season. Overall, I would classify just six of them as busts. That’s an 85% hit rate.

MORE: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart

Flowers was already able to command a 24.4% target share as a rookie, 20th in the league. He averaged 12.9 fantasy points per game despite being targeted on just 21.1% of his routes run (outside the top 40) and playing on an offense that threw the ball fewer than 500 times.

Some may look at that as a negative. But I see Flowers as a player who is still getting better. After several years of taking shots at wide receivers in the early rounds of the draft, the Ravens look like they finally hit.

Flowers’ Dynasty Ranking

Where does Flowers land in the dynasty WR landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Flowers lands in comparison to other top names at the position.

1) Justin Jefferson | MIN
2) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
3) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
4) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
5) Puka Nacua | LAR
6) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
7) Tyreek Hill | MIA
8) A.J. Brown | PHI
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
11) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
12) DK Metcalf | SEA
13) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
14) DeVonta Smith | PHI
15) Drake London | ATL
16) Jordan Addison | MIN
17) DJ Moore | CHI
18) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
19) Tank Dell | HOU
20) Nico Collins | HOU
21) Rashee Rice | KC
22) Tee Higgins | CIN
23) Zay Flowers | BAL
24) Deebo Samuel | SF

Should You Trade Flowers in Dynasty?

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Flowers detractors might point to TE Mark Andrews’ injury as an inflection point in his rookie season. I would be remiss not to at least address it.

There’s no denying Flowers was more involved as the clear top pass catcher than he was when competing with Andrews for targets.

With Andrews, Flowers averaged 11.0 fantasy points per game (11 games). Without Andrews, that number spiked to 17.4 ppg (six games).

Knowing Andrews will be back next year, you could look at this and view Flowers as a sell. After all, the numbers don’t lie — he was objectively worse with Andrews active.

However, we need to also consider the timing of everything. Rookie wide receivers historically perform better over the second half than the first half. They learn the playbook more, get acclimated to the NFL, and in turn, produce at a higher level.

Andrews went down in Week 11 with his injury. Was the reason Flowers’ production increased over the second half because Andrews got hurt, or did things just start to click? The answer, of course, is likely both.

This is somewhat similar to what we saw in 2021 with Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (although to a far lesser extent). It’s a bit different because St. Brown’s fantasy numbers were more elite, and he was also a Day 3 pick, resulting in more questions being asked of him than if he went Day 1 or 2.

However, the same questions were being asked. Was his late-season surge due to his talent, or the fact that T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift both got hurt?

I tend to believe that bad players aren’t going to suddenly become good just because volume opens up. If Flowers wasn’t good at football, the targets vacated by Andrews would’ve gone to someone else. Targets are earned, and Flowers was able to earn them.

What we saw from Flowers in 2023 is likely his floor going forward. I expect him to continue to improve, and be an even more reliable fantasy asset in 2024.

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I don’t see a weekly fantasy WR1 in Flowers’ future, but a consistently reliable WR2 is very much in his plausible range of outcomes. Unless someone is paying you a price greater than that, hang onto Flowers and enjoy what should be a long, solid career.