Baltimore Ravens WR Zay Flowers had a quality rookie season that suggests a long and successful career. We know Flowers will get better, but on a run-heavy offense, how much more productive can he be as a fantasy football asset?
Zay Flowers’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook
The third in a run of four consecutive wide receivers selected in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, Flowers fell in an interesting spot in Baltimore.
On the one hand, the Ravens are a run-heavy offense, which is not great for wide receivers. On the other hand, they had a clear opening at the position.
Flowers made his presence known immediately, catching nine of 10 targets for 78 yards in his first NFL game. Interestingly, that would be his highest receiving total until his final regular-season game in Week 17. However, you could often rely on him for some explosive plays.
Zay Flowers is a PROBLEM
SHEESH 🔥#RavensFlock
pic.twitter.com/oG31aADnUr— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) September 17, 2023
On the whole, Flowers’ rookie season was very impressive. He caught 77 passes for 858 yards and five touchdowns, averaging a very respectable 12.9 fantasy points per game and an overall WR31 finish.
Since 2011, there have been 40 wide receivers to reach 800 yards in their rookie seasons. Twenty of them posted a top-12 season at some point in their career. Another 12 posted a top-24 season. Overall, I would classify just six of them as busts. That’s an 85% hit rate.
Flowers was able to command a 24.4% target share as a rookie, 20th in the league. However, he was targeted on just 21.1% of his routes run (outside the top 40) while playing on an offense that threw the ball fewer than 500 times.
While the Ravens aren’t suddenly going to throw the ball more, Flowers should see looks on a higher percentage of his routes this season.
Should You Draft Flowers in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
While natural progression from Flowers is to be expected, I would be remiss to not point out the fact that Mark Andrews missed nearly half the season last year. It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that Flowers’ production increased without Andrews on the field.
In 11 games with Andrews, Flowers averaged 11.0 fantasy points per game. Yet, in six games without him, Flowers averaged 17.4!
Injuries can happen to any player at any time, but we obviously need to presume Andrews is on the field this season. This isn’t a reason to fade Flowers, but it’s something we need to be mindful of in evaluating Flowers’ fantasy potential.
Fortunately, Flowers isn’t overly expensive in 2024 Best Ball drafts. You can draft him right around where he finished last season. As much as Flowers may have benefited from Andrews’ absence, it’s difficult to envision him being a worse fantasy asset this season.
Flowers isn’t necessarily someone to aggressively target, but he’s not a player to avoid either. At the right price, or if you’re trying to put together a Ravens stack with Lamar Jackson, Flowers is definitely a worthwhile selection.
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