Las Vegas Raiders RB Zamir White had a strong close to last season, earning him the lead back job for 2024. Is he an appealing target for fantasy football managers? What does his 2024 projection look like?
Zamir White’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 12.8
- Rushing Yards: 1,147
- Rush TDs: 6.4
- Receptions: 30
- Receiving Yards: 289
- Receiving TDs: 0.9
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft White This Year?
It’s easy to want to dismiss White this year. After all, this is a player that earned a whopping 17 carries as a rookie in 2022. Even last season, White had a whole 20 carries through Week 14. Despite White’s close to the season, he averaged 4.4 fantasy points per game. But it’s that final month that is dictating our assessment of him.
From Weeks 15-18, White posted yardage totals of 85, 145, 106, and 121. He scored 17.5, 14.5, 15.6, and 13.1 fantasy points. By no means should we assume the same pace over a full season, but White averaged 15.1 fantasy points per game over that span. At the very least, we have a rough idea of what he’s capable of.
White’s ascent coincided not just with Josh Jacobs going down, but also with Antonio Pierce taking over as interim head coach. Now the full-time lead man, Pierce is committed to White as his lead back.
While White has proven capable of excelling in the role, he doesn’t exactly have job security. Alexander Mattison was in a near-identical situation to White last season, and he played his way out of the Vikings’ lead-back job. Ironically, Mattison is now the backup to White, and he could easily see more work than expected if White struggles.
Furthermore, there’s White’s pass-catching profile, or lack thereof. I have White running for 1,160 yards and 9.0 touchdowns, but catching only 27 passes for 187 yards with one more score through the air. Even with an admittedly lofty 10-touchdown projection, White only comes out as the RB24, averaging 13.0 ppg, two spots lower than the PFN consensus.
I ranked White a little bit lower, down at RB26, which is accounting more for all of the risks associated with his profile. White’s history of production spans all of four games. He is a Day 3 pick with absolutely no job security. If White is inefficient, he will probably lose his job.
White’s ADP sits at RB22. It’s a reasonable price for the lead back of an NFL team, but not one I’m necessarily looking to pay. Ultimately, we need upside with every pick beyond the first round or two.
Outside of an extremely outlier touchdown year where White scores something like 15 times, what is his path to outperforming his ADP? It’s very hard for a pure runner to have 15 PPG upside. White’s lackluster receiving profile, combined with the Raiders drafting a pure pass-catching RB in Dylan Laube, makes it extremely unlikely we see any sort of impactful receiving numbers from White.
Drafting pure two-down grinders on below-average offenses just isn’t the path to fantasy success. As a result, I must advise managers to only target White if he falls below ADP to the point where he’s a clear value.
