One of the most intriguing fantasy football signings of the 2024 NFL offseason was the addition of RB Zack Moss to the Cincinnati Bengals‘ backfield.
The departure of Joe Mixon leaves a leading ball carrier role completely vacant in one of the league’s most productive offensive units with Joe Burrow at quarterback.
Can fantasy managers expect Moss to be the feature back in Cincinnati in 2024?
Zack Moss’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 229.0
- Rushing Yards: 1,069
- Rushing TDs: 6
- Receptions: 41
- Receiving Yards: 288
- Receiving TDs: 2
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 15. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Moss This Year?
If you need a reminder of how valuable a leading back in the Bengals’ offense can be for your fantasy team with Burrow under center, you need look no further than Mixon’s fantasy production over the last three years.
Joe Mixon Fantasy Production Since 2021
- 2023: 309 total touches, 1,410 total yards, 12 TDs (RB6)
- 2022: 270 total touches, 1,255 total yards, 9 TDs (RB10)
- 2021: 334 total touches, 1,519 total yards, 16 TDs (RB4)
Obviously, the departure of Mixon doesn’t make it a foregone conclusion that Moss assumes the same workload as Chase Brown is also on the roster. Yet, I believe the argument is far more compelling for Moss to assume the leading role than Brown in 2024.
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When Jonathan Taylor was out of the lineup for the Indianapolis Colts from Weeks 2-4 last year, Moss was the RB8 overall in full-PPR formats.
Zack Moss Production From Weeks 2-4 in 2023 (Positional Rank)
- Rushing Attempts: 66 (1st)
- Rushing Yards: 280 (4th)
- Total TDs: 2
Could you make the argument that Moss was more of a volume play during this stretch? Sure, but I don’t think it carries much weight. His 66 rushing attempts, 280 yards, and 4.2 yards per carry during this stretch were all higher than Brown’s entire production in 2023.
This is why I am projecting Moss will be the lead back in Cincinnati this upcoming season. He proved last year that he can be a productive and efficient ball carrier in a leading role.
Additionally, Moss projects as the better short-yardage option near the goal line. He converted three of his nine carries into scores from inside the 5-yard line last year. For some additional context, Brown’s red zone rushing production was four carries for -13 yards — which is likely why he didn’t see a single carry inside the 5-yard line in 2023.
This role matters when you consider the Bengals were a top-10 scoring offense in both of the healthy seasons we saw from Burrow in 2021 and 2022.
The real question is how will the pass-catching work be divvied up among these two backs. Brown is an explosive playmaker who can create mismatches in the passing game — which was evident by his 54-yard TD on a screen pass against the Colts in Week 14 last season. Additionally, Brown was a highly efficient option in the passing game last year in a limited role. He caught 14 of his 15 targets for 156 yards in 2023.
Yet, Brown’s receiving production was still lower than Moss’ last season. Moss managed to haul in 27 receptions for 192 yards and two scores while splitting work with Taylor in Indianapolis. Brown may be the slightly better option in passing situations, but I don’t see him completely taking Moss off the field in those scenarios, either.
Ultimately, I do believe the projection of 1,300+ yards and eight scores is certainly on the table for Moss in 2024, assuming he sees north of 200 carries.
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Moss’ ADP at No. 91 overall in the eighth round as the RB26 off the board feels a bit low to me at the moment. For some additional context, Moss is currently being drafted after the Pittsburgh Steelers duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.
Unless you believe this backfield is going to be very close to a 50-50 split or that Brown is simply the better option, then Moss is a great value at his current price in fantasy drafts.
