After an uninspiring season, fantasy football managers are asking if Zack Moss can finally be a value at his ADP. Following a 2020 season filled with mixed results, injuries, and a changing offense, does Moss have a positive fantasy outlook in 2021, or should you avoid the second-year player?
Zack Moss’ fantasy outlook for 2021
More times than not, I try to look at things with a bit of optimism. Moss’ fantasy outlook for 2021, however, will not be one of those things.
Moss played in 13 games as a rookie, carrying the ball 112 times for 481 yards and 4 touchdowns while adding 14 receptions (18 targets) for 95 yards and another score. He ended the year as the RB46 in PPR scoring and was 52nd in points per game. In a season where the average fantasy points per rush were at a decade-high of 0.66 points, Moss averaged just below that at 0.64 pts/rush and 0.78 pts/opportunity (63rd).
Moss suffered a toe injury and missed Weeks 3 through 5, played on just 45% of the team’s snaps, and topped out at 60% in Week 12. Locked in a timeshare with Devin Singletary, Moss saw 47.1% of the rushes and 35% of the red-zone carries.
In mid-January, Moss underwent tight rope surgery to treat his high ankle sprain. The same surgery that Tua Tagovailoa endured at Alabama.
Sure, some might argue that Moss has baked-in value, but where is the upside? Not only does he have to contend with Singletary, but Josh Allen is the primary rusher in the red zone. Additionally, the Buffalo Bills brought in Matt Breida during the NFL offseason.
Moss does not see enough work in the passing game to make an impact in PPR formats and misses out on the bulk of critical scoring opportunities in the red zone. He might be priced correctly, but that doesn’t mean he has a fantasy outlook that would be considered valuable.
Fantasy projection
I think the Bills showed us who they really are last season — legitimate Super Bowl contenders. You don’t mess around, go 13-3, win the AFC East for the first time since 1995, and change the formula.
The Bills went from a 54.9% pass rate in 2019 (26th) to a pass-happy 61.7% in 2020 (11th). It was a complete shift in philosophy. As a result, opportunities for the running backs were drastically slashed.
In 2020, Moss averaged just 8.6 carries, 1.4 targets, and 44 total yards per game. Given the outlook for the Bills and the addition of Breida, this feels close to what we see in 2021.
Moss could see around 135-140 carries for 580-600 yards and 4 touchdowns in early projections. Furthermore, he could record 15-20 receptions for roughly 130 yards and another score.
Zack Moss’ fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Moss currently has an ADP of 91.2 in half-PPR. In superflex formats, where QBs see an increased value, his ADP is 122.8. However, in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Moss has an ADP of 102.07. Additionally, his ADP on Fleaficker is 94.
Should you draft Zack Moss in 2021 for fantasy?
As I mentioned earlier, Moss feels about right at his current ADP. He is likely the leading back for what will be a high-octane Bills’ offense. But being a “leading back” does not always mean fantasy success.
The only way I see Moss being someone who could be a weekly starter would be due to an injury to Singletary. The way things stand, they cut into each other’s value too much. And what touches Moss does receive are the less efficient carries compared to targets.
You could certainly do worse than Moss as someone in the RB4 range, but he does not have the upside of someone like Trey Sermon, who is going one spot above him and certainly not that of Gus Edwards at RB56.