Last offseason, rumors of the Cincinnati Bengals releasing Joe Mixon never seemed legitimate. With him another year older, this year’s rumors felt more real. Sure enough, the Bengals cut their longtime RB1 shortly after signing former Indianapolis Colts RB Zack Moss. What are the fantasy football ramifications of the Bengals’ RB swap?
What Is the Fantasy Impact of Zack Moss Signing With the Cincinnati Bengals?
According to Adam Schefter, the Bengals signed Moss to a two-year deal worth up to $8 million. Simultaneously, the team cut Mixon after seven years with the team.
With this year’s rookie running back class considered the weakest since 2014, the most likely scenario is the Bengals roll into the 2024 season with a backfield of Moss and 2023 fifth-rounder Chase Brown.
Moss was a poor running back prospect overdrafted by the Buffalo Bills in 2020. After three truly abysmal seasons to start his career, the Bills were eager to let him go.
Credit to Moss, he improved significantly from the 2022 to 2023 season and completely revived his career. With the Colts, he looked like a different player. Moss may not be a special talent, but he proved he could handle a heavy workload while being effective both as a runner and a pass-catcher.
If you look at both running backs’ efficiency metrics from last season, they’re pretty similar. Outside of a handful of truly elite backs, running backs are largely replaceable. If the Bengals use Moss like they used Mixon, I see no reason he can’t be just as valuable in fantasy.
The Bengals’ Backfield Will Likely Be a Two-Man Committee
I would consider Moss the presumptive starter and fully expect him to be out there on the first play when the season opens. With that said, Chase Brown impressed in limited action last season. He doesn’t profile as a three-down back, but he did show big-play ability when he finally got healthy.
Brown only touched the ball 58 times but averaged 5.8 yards per touch and 5.64 yards created per touch. He had four carries of 15+ yards. That’s mighty impressive considering he had 44 rush attempts all season.
MORE: NFL Free Agency Tracker 2024
Given what we saw from Moss last season, he projects to be the early-down and goal-line back. Brown is likely to be out there on obvious passing downs as well as to spell Moss on occasion. Look for Moss to handle 12-14 carries a game while Brown runs it 6-8 times. I would anticipate Brown having a larger target share.
Absent another major move from the Bengals regarding this backfield, Moss and Brown will be drafted in fantasy leagues. Moss will be drafted first with a mid-RB2 upside, and Brown could be a standalone RB3 with injury-contingent RB2 upside.
What Does This Mean for Joe Mixon?
It’s ironic that, despite the replaceability of the running back position, there is currently a shortage of starting running backs in the NFL. Mixon is the latest of the historically great 2017 class to near the end of his career.
Of the whopping 14 running backs from that class who were fantasy-relevant for a stretch, Alvin Kamara is the only one still with the team that drafted him. Of the nine who have finished as fantasy RB1s before, one is retired (Chris Carson), three are pretty much finished (Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Kareem Hunt), and two more were cut on Monday at the start of the free agency period (Aaron Jones, Mixon).
With guys like D’Andre Swift, Tony Pollard, and Austin Ekeler going to teams that didn’t really need running backs, the Chargers, Raiders, Ravens, Texans, and Cowboys are all potentially in need of running backs. Currently, the only impact names remaining are Mixon, Jones, and Derrick Henry. That leaves more running back spots than there are backs available.
For Mixon, this is potentially good news as he should land with one of these teams. The Raiders would easily be the worst of the five potential landing spots, but they are also the least likely to sign him, as Zamir White looked capable of being their lead back over the final month of last season. Given the state of their team, it would be a major surprise if they signed Mixon.
There’s a chance Mixon takes some time before he signs. We saw this happen with Fournette and Cook recently. Although, it didn’t quite work out well for either of them.
Situationally, Mixon’s fantasy prospects will be quite good for any of the other four teams. Whether he’s a worthwhile fantasy pick depends on how much he has left.
Mixon may not have been overly efficient last season, but he looked fine enough. Of course, so did Cook in 2022, and look what happened to him last year. There’s a nonzero chance we’ve seen the last of Mixon as a productive NFL running back.
START TRADING: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart
With that said, I don’t think Mixon is done just yet. He’ll be 28 years old this year and has been around 4.0 yards per carry for three straight seasons. He’s missed just two games over that span.
Mixon has been mostly durable throughout his career and capable of handling a heavy workload. As long as he’s the primary runner and goal-line back on a good offense, he should be a viable fantasy RB2.