Perhaps no journeyman running back did more for dynasty value last season than Zack Moss. The Indianapolis Colts’ backup RB was a fantasy RB1 during Jonathan Taylor’s absence. Now, looking like the lead back for the Cincinnati Bengals, how should fantasy football managers handle Moss going forward?
Zack Moss’ Dynasty Outlook
On the list of outlier quality NFL players, Moss’ name belongs right at the top among the recent.
In Buffalo, Moss was one of the least effective backs in the league and looked to be on his way to being out of the NFL after his rookie deal was up. Instead, he reinvented himself, got an opportunity with the Colts, and demonstrated just how much he’d been able to improve.
Moss is obviously not the best running back in the league, but he was certainly good enough to be a lead back last season. He averaged a respectable 4.7 yards per touch and proved capable of handling significant volume when necessary.
In six games as the Colts’ lead back with Taylor out, Moss averaged 14.0 fantasy points per game. And that doesn’t include his 33.5-point effort in Taylor’s first game back in Week 5 when Moss was still the primary back.
What’s great about Moss’ profile is he can get it done in the passing game if needed. He only saw an 8.2% target share last year. But that’s actually impressive when you consider he only had six games where he played more than 50% of the snaps.
Entering this third phase of his career, the biggest question was whether Moss would end up being an upside handcuff or get a chance to start. With the Bengals simultaneously signing him and releasing Joe Mixon, I think we have our answer. They pretty clearly view Moss as a starting-caliber running back.
Although Moss will almost certainly see the most touches in the Bengals’ backfield, he’s not going to be the 80% snap-share guy he was when Taylor was out last season. The Bengals like Chase Brown. He showed some good explosiveness in limited action last season and is likely to be the primary passing down back.
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The good news is Moss should be the goal line back. While he may be a bit touchdown-dependent, that’s not necessarily a bad thing in an offense featuring Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins.
Mixon was able to average 15.7 fantasy points per game last season. At this stage in his career, I’m not sure Mixon is that much better than Moss. I see no reason Moss can’t average 13-14 points per game, which would be solid RB2 value.
Moss’ Dynasty Ranking
Where does Moss sit in the dynasty RB landscape as we look ahead to the next stage of the 2024 offseason? Here are Katz’s latest RB rankings from 26 to 50, demonstrating where Moss lands in comparison to other mid-tier names at the position.
26) Tyjae Spears | TEN
27) James Conner | ARI
28) Aaron Jones | MIN
29) Zamir White | LV
30) Austin Ekeler | WAS
31) Zach Charbonnet | SEA
32) Nick Chubb | CLE
33) Jerome Ford | CLE
34) Devin Singletary | NYG
35) Gus Edwards | LAC
36) Chuba Hubbard | CAR
37) Raheem Mostert | MIA
38) Kendre Miller | NO
39) Trey Benson | FA
40) Jonathon Brooks | FA
41) Zack Moss | CIN
42) Tyler Allgeier | ATL
43) Blake Corum | FA
44) MarShawn Lloyd | FA
45) Braelon Allen | FA
46) Jaylen Wright | FA
47) Antonio Gibson | NE
48) Ty Chandler | MIN
49) Keaton Mitchell | BAL
50) Chase Brown | CIN
Should You Trade Moss in Dynasty?
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Moss is 26 years old. He doesn’t have much tread on him, so he should be able to play another 4-5 years. If you were going to trade Moss, the time to do so would’ve been before he signed when his value was still unknown…and it would’ve been the wrong move.
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Free agency was about as kind as it could’ve been to Moss. Of course, nothing is guaranteed beyond this year. If Moss is merely okay, the Bengals could easily draft a running back in 2025 to replace him, as that class is projected to be significantly better than the upcoming class. But Moss couldn’t really have landed better than Cincinnati.
Given the stigma surrounding Moss, it’s unlikely he’s going to command much of a return in a trade. This is a situation where you held onto a player, hoping things broke right, and they did. For at least one season, you have a usable fantasy asset.
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