The Washington Commanders will face the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding TE Zach Ertz.
Is Zach Ertz Playing in Week 16?
Ertz is in the concussion protocol after suffering the injury last week. He did not practice on Wednesday but returned to a limited session on Thursday. He was able to ditch the red no-contact jersey on Friday but has not cleared the concussion protocol just yet.
We’ll continue to monitor the Commanders’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Zach Ertz in Week 16?
With Noah Brown and Austin Ekeler out, the Commanders will enter Week 16 with two active players that have over 300 receiving yards this season.
Think about that. Foster Moreau has 302 this season for the Saints – he’s been the TE3 in an offense that has struggled to pass the ball for the majority of this season.
Zach Ertz turned a 21.9% target share into six catches for 47 yards and a touchdown in the Week 11 meeting with these Eagles.
I’ll happily admit that there is a wide range of outcomes to consider (five games with over a dozen points and four games with under six this season) and that this matchup isn’t ideal (PHI: fourth-lowest opponent score rate). But with backup quarterbacks largely responsible for getting TEs in this range the ball (Jacksonville, Dallas, and maybe Kansas City), Ertz is as live an option as anyone outside of a clear-cut top-seven at the position.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Week 16 Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Zach Ertz’s Fantasy Points Projection in Week 16
As of Sunday morning, Ertz is projected to score 5.5 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 2.4 receptions for 22.3 yards and 0.1 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Lions' Defense
Sometimes, Week 18 results can lie, with teams posting disproportionately dominant or awful performances because of backups. The Sunday night showdown between the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings was not one of those cases, however.
Instead, Detroit surged up five spots in the final rendition of these rankings with one of the most impressive defensive performances of the season. The Lions ended with their fourth-highest grade of the season (86.3, B) despite rolling out an injury-depleted MASH unit that also lost their top remaining cornerback, Terrion Arnold, to a foot injury.
While the Lions likely aren't a top-five defense entering the playoffs in their current state, it's undeniable how well this team is coached. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn authored a masterpiece game plan, selling out to harass Sam Darnold. Detroit played Cover 0 on a season-high 17.7% of opponent dropbacks, more than triple their season average of 5.1%.
The result? A season-high 75.6% pass defense success rate, a remarkable feat given the Lions' health and quality of their opponent.
This unit is still a concern with all the injuries, particularly if Arnold is out. Linebacker Alex Anzalone was a difference-maker in his return to the lineup, though, and it's still possible for the likes of Carlton Davis and Aidan Hutchinson to return with a deep run.
With what the Lions accomplished in their 15-2 regular season, it would be foolish to totally discount the possibility of Detroit's first Super Bowl appearance.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Zach Ertz’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 9:15 AM ET on Saturday, January 18. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Divisional Round Superflex Rankings.
Divisional Round TE PPR Rankings
1) Sam LaPorta | DET (vs. WAS)
2) Travis Kelce | KC (vs. HOU)
3) Mark Andrews | BAL (at BUF)
4) Dallas Goedert | PHI (vs. LAR)
5) Dalton Kincaid | BUF (vs. BAL)
6) Zach Ertz | WAS (at DET)
7) Isaiah Likely | BAL (at BUF)
8) Dalton Schultz | HOU (at KC)
9) Noah Gray | KC (vs. HOU)
10) Tyler Higbee | LAR (at PHI)
11) Dawson Knox | BUF (vs. BAL)
12) Grant Calcaterra | PHI (vs. LAR)
13) Cade Stover | HOU (at KC)
14) Colby Parkinson | LAR (at PHI)
15) Brock Wright | DET (vs. WAS)
16) John Bates | WAS (at DET)
17) Charlie Kolar | BAL (at BUF)
18) Davis Allen | LAR (at PHI)
19) Hunter Long | LAR (at PHI)
20) Ben Sinnott | WAS (at DET)
21) Shane Zylstra | DET (vs. WAS)
22) Peyton Hendershot | KC (vs. HOU)
23) Quintin Morris | BUF (vs. BAL)
Commanders at Lions Trends and Insights
Washington Commanders
Team: Since the start of 2022, the Lions have a 73.8% win percentage against teams without a true weapon of a runner under center and a 54.5% mark when facing such an asset – Jayden Daniels certainly falls into that second bucket of QB.
QB: On Sunday night, Daniels completed 58.3% of his pressured passes with two scores and zero interceptions (regular season: 46.4% complete with 1.6 touchdowns-per-interception).
Offense: The Commanders scored 62.5% of their drives in the Wild Card Round and are nearly unstoppable when having success even close to that level (13-2 when scoring on over one-third of their offensive possessions).
Defense: Washington posted a 66.7 Def+ grade on Sunday night, their fourth-worst effort of the season. That said, two of those four instances have come against the Buccaneers, making that potentially a tough matchup more than something to fear moving into the Divisional Round.
Fantasy: If you extrapolate Terry McLaurin’s last seven games for a 17-game season:
- 100 receptions (143 targets)
- 1,127 yards
- 19 touchdowns
- 329.1 PPR fantasy points
Justin Jefferson was WR2 in total PPR points this season with 317.5.
Betting: Since Week 11, Washington is 1-3 ATS against the NFC East and 3-1 ATS against the rest of the NFL
Detroit Lions
Team: The Lions scored 41 points against the Chargers last season, coming off their bye. They hung 47 on the Cowboys this season and are now coming off another bye week.
QB: Jared Goff finished the season with a 93.2 grade in our QB+ metric, the 11th-best mark in our six years of tracking (second best this season, trailing Lamar Jackson).
Offense: The Lions ranked third in fourth-down conversions during the regular season (22) and tied for seventh in fourth-down conversion rate (66.7%).
Defense: Detroit's offense gets the attention, but its defense ranked seventh in turnover rate and red zone efficiency for the season.
Fantasy: The best games over PPR fantasy expectation during the second half of the season, minimum 20 touches:
- Week 12 Saquon Barkley (at LAR): +127.1%
- Week 16 Jonathan Taylor (vs. TEN): +124.1%
- Week 18 Gibbs (vs. MIN): +114.4%
- Week 17 Gibbs (at SF): +77.9%
- Week 9 Derrick Henry (vs. DEN): +77%
Betting: The Lions have covered 70% of their games since Dan Campbell took over (49-21-1), and they are easily the best mark in the league (the Bengals at 61.6% are the only other team at 58%).
