The NFL offseason has two major events that will inevitably impact the fantasy values of several players. The first of those two events is free agency. Amidst all the 2022 free agent signings, the Cardinals brought back their midseason TE acquisition. What does Zach Ertz’s dynasty fantasy football value look like after re-signing with the Cardinals?
Zach Ertz’s dynasty fantasy outlook
Tight ends typically have a longer shelf life than other positions. Players break out later, enter their prime later, and have longer careers. Despite this fact, Ertz looked completely finished in 2020. He averaged just 30.5 receiving yards per game and was clearly on his way out of Philly.
Then, in 2021, he surprisingly remained with the Eagles. He was more productive than the previous season, but he was clearly the inferior player to Dallas Goedert. As a result, the Eagles traded him to the Cardinals after their Week 6 game.
Ertz will turn 32 years old during the 2022 season. He’s certainly closer to the end of his career than the beginning, but he proved over the second half of last season that he can still be a useful fantasy asset. Ertz is not done yet.
Ertz averaged 52 receiving yards per game, and by the end of the season, he was playing over 90% of the snaps. He proved he’s still capable of being a primary tight end in the NFL.
Ertz’s short-term fantasy outlook is promising
Although 32 isn’t as old for tight ends, it’s not exactly young. Ertz probably has anywhere from 3-5 productive years left in him. He’s never going to be the guy we saw in 2018 again (116-1,163-8), but he can still be a 70-80 catch, 800-yard receiver.
A return to Arizona is probably best-case scenario for his fantasy value. With a three-year deal, Ertz is now tied to Kyler Murray for what is essentially the remainder of his fantasy-relevant playing career.
Fantasy impact on Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins
After joining the Cardinals, Ertz quickly emerged as Murray’s second favorite target. From Week 7 onward, Ertz totaled just 50 receiving yards fewer than the Cardinals leading receiver, Christian Kirk.
In 2022, Kirk is almost certainly going to be on another team. A.J. Green may move on as well. Murray will have the most rapport with Hopkins and Ertz, which is mutually beneficial to everyone.
How should fantasy managers value Ertz in dynasty?
As someone who was ready to write Ertz off, he’s now firmly inside the top 12 tight ends in dynasty leagues. Dynasty managers should treat Ertz as a back-end TE1 largely due to his age. For redraft purposes, Ertz may very well be top 8 at the position.
In 2021, Ertz averaged 12 PPR fantasy points per game with the Cardinals. From Week 7 on, he was the TE5 by ppg. Ertz was actually a better fantasy asset than his former Eagles teammate, Dallas Goedert.
Ertz’s fantasy value, both immediate and long-term, will be impacted by what the Cardinals do at wide receiver. They need someone opposite Hopkins. Will they sign a veteran free agent? Will they spend a day one or day two draft pick on a rookie?
There’s a real chance Ertz enters 2022 as the presumptive number two target for Murray. Even if he falls to third, that’s plenty high enough to produce usable fantasy numbers, especially on a high-octane Arizona offense.