As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Seattle Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Zach Charbonnet’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Few teams have had a larger collection of terrific running backs in recent years than the Seahawks. Likewise, few teams have had worse RB fortune … until last October. That’s when Rashaad Penny’s season-ending injury opened the door for rookie Kenneth Walker III to shine.
Walker enters the 2023 season as the clear-cut No. 1 RB in a surprisingly good offense that’s only getting better. Last year, they were expected to be in rebuilding mode.
Instead, they made the playoffs, thanks in part to an offense that averaged the ninth-most points per game. If things break right this season, they could be even better.
The addition of presumed No. 1 rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba was a key move for this franchise. And despite still needing to fill other holes in this year’s draft, Seattle opted to take Charbonnet with the No. 52 overall pick.
A bold move? Absolutely. Of course, Seattle doesn’t care about our fantasy teams; they care about challenging the 49ers in the NFC West. As one of the top running backs in the draft, Charbonnet apparently helps meet that need.
This context is critically important as we try to quantify Charbonnet’s likely 2023 production. The Seahawks used second-round draft capital on both him and Walker. The latter did as well or better this past season than most people realistically could have expected. The former still has much to prove but could get the chance to prove it on Day 1.
Walker and Charbonnet are not the same types of runners. For starters, Walker is smaller (or really, more compact) and quicker. He fits the mold of a two- or three-down back. And yet, so did Charbonnet at the college level. But we can only speculate about how his skills will translate at the NFL level.
For now, it’s Walker’s job, and I don’t anticipate Charbonnet taking it from him. The likeliest scenario might find Walker and Charbonnet tag-teaming like Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon in Green Bay but with a heavier dose of Walker.
Perhaps 225-250 touches for Walker and 100-125 for Charbonnet this season. Remember, this team is also committed to an aerial attack that features three outstanding WR playmakers.
Fantasy-wise, Charbonnet’s usage in the passing game might mean the difference between startable and benchable most weeks. He caught 61 passes in two campaigns with UCLA. Most young NFL running backs need to develop their pass-catching chops on the job. Charbonnet appears to be a more natural fit as a third-down back on Day 1.
DeeJay Dallas still looms, as the 24-year-old former fourth-round selection has improved each season. There’s some risk that Charbonnet could split backup touches with Dallas, who’s caught an impressive 55 of 62 targets in three campaigns.
That’s nothing to sneeze at. While Charbonnet might be a “better” version of Dallas, they might go toe-to-toe for much of this season, at least until Charbonnet finds his footing in the NFL.
150-250 rushing yards seem realistic for the rookie, along with 25-35 catches for 180-220 yards. He’ll probably be more valuable on the field than in fantasy. Naturally, an injury to Walker could catapult Charbonnet into a prominent role. But there’s just as good a chance of him mustering 4-6 touches per game.
Should You Draft Zach Charbonnet This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Charbonnet with an ADP of RB36. Our PFN Consensus Rankings place him at RB39. For context, last year’s overall RB31 was Latavius Murray, who eclipsed 900 total yards while finding the end zone six times.
At the moment, that kind of production seems like a longshot for Charbonnet, who has more to prove than his market value suggests. Every RB in this backfield can catch. Even the No. 4 RB (rookie Kenny McIntosh) reeled in 43 receptions at Georgia.
As a glorified pseudo-handcuff who’s not even assured of the starting role if Walker goes down, Charbonnet belongs outside the top 40 in ADP. Drafting him ahead of more locked-in handcuffs would be unnecessarily risky, and picking him after surefire complementary 1B running backs assumes he’ll be a weekly fantasy starter in deep leagues.
But there should be no such assumptions. He’s facing more headwinds than tailwinds in his first season. A top 40-50 finish is entirely doable. A top-30 finish seems farfetched.