If you’re looking for XFL DFS picks for Sunday in Week 3, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended DraftKings lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
XFL DFS Considerations
The first three recommended lineups for the 2023 XFL season have done well. Week 1’s DFS offering finished in the top 5%-7% of tournaments, while our proposed Thursday night slate for Week 2 scored inside the top 1%. Then this past Sunday’s recommendation finished in the top 5%.
What’s happening here? As shared last week, there’s plenty of both luck and skill involved. We can’t control for luck, but we can apply data-driven intel to increase our odds for success.
While researching 100+ XFL skill-position players ahead of this season, I drew a few conclusions, which have been applied to each of our first three DFS slates:
(1) Quarterback play would be more erratic than in the NFL, with lower ceilings across the board.
(2) The looseness of running back depth charts made betting on RBs risky.
(3) Wide receiver depth charts were largely irrelevant, as the opening weeks would determine which supposed No. 1s were actually No. 3s or No. 4s and which supposed tertiary options were actually target friendly.
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So these first three DFS slates locked in high-probability producers. In the belief Houston would score 20+ points in Week 2, I recommended grouping Brandon Silvers with Max Borghi, Deontay Burnett, and Jontre Kirklin. Three of the four hit. And when combined with team No. 1 receivers Sal Cannella and Jalen Tolliver, we had the makings of a nice win.
This is not about getting cute with deep fliers. In NFL DFS play, where price setters have a firmer understanding of each player’s value, we’re often forced to dig deep.
That’s not the case in the XFL — at least not yet. Price setters are still trying to make sense of guys like Marcell Ateman and Cody Latimer. That helps explain why Ateman ($9,500 DFS price) is more than twice as expensive as Latimer ($4,100), despite the latter being a higher-probability target monster.
It’s no surprise that Ateman and many other former NFL players (Martavis Bryant, Geronimo Allison, etc.) are still quite expensive. Their DFS allure has not waned, even as their production remains muted.
So we have to try to cut through the confusion. An NFL pedigree means less and less with each passing week. Instead, which receivers are quarterbacks — many of whom have almost zero job security — leaning on?
Week 3 has some fascinating matchups, and even while writing this sentence, the final player in my DFS slate remains a mystery to me. There are several high-priced, high-impact players coming off Week 2 letdowns. I believe in their bounce-back potential. The question, then, is which one is safest.
MORE: XFL Fantasy Football Rankings Week 3
Big picture: I’m fading two receiving corps this week — DC and San Antonio. The Defenders remain a run-heavy, defensive-minded squad. In DFS, their receivers essentially are TD-or-bust, and that’s not a bet I feel comfortable making.
For the Brahmas, Tolliver is hobbled, and his matchup versus Houston is tough even if he suits up. On the field, I like the Brahmas’ array of receiving talent. But in DFS, there are no semi-reliable double-digit options.
As always, I’m betting against Orlando’s defense and on Seattle’s offense. This has worked out fairly well, and it should continue to pay dividends this weekend.
Top DraftKings DFS Picks for XFL Week 3
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “XFL Classic,” which includes one QB, one RB, two WRs, two Flex players, and one D/ST.
QB Ben DiNucci, Sea Dragons ($10,500)
Plenty of mental mistakes and plenty of pass attempts. Ben DiNucci leads all XFL quarterbacks in most major categories. He’s facing a fellow 0-2 squad in the Vipers. But unlike Vegas, Seattle has a powerhouse offense that should generate 24+ points.
RB Morgan Ellison, Sea Dragons ($4,600)
The price is right. As of Thursday, $6,000 “starter” Brenden Knox is doubtful with a foot injury. While Morgan Ellison wasn’t a big pass catcher in college, he was 4 for 4 on receptions last week and is poised to consume 14+ touches. That’s good enough for me, especially at a position with so few reliable options.
WR Jeff Badet, Vipers ($9,300)
I’m still going back and forth at this slot, but I’ve settled on Jeff Badet on the assumption Vegas will need to throw early and often against Seattle. While the Vipers supposedly have plenty of receiver talent, and while their QB situation is spotty at best, Vegas needs to get Badet going. He’s arguably one of the five most talented wideouts in the XFL.
WR Jahcour Pearson, Sea Dragons ($9,000)
Our third and final Sea Dragon. We cannot afford Josh Gordon unless we downgrade elsewhere. Regardless, as I contended last week, Jahcour Pearson appears to be DiNucci’s No. 1 option.
MORE: Top 50 XFL Players 2023
Remember, Gordon was snagged late in the supplemental draft. He wasn’t expected to be “the guy” for many reasons. Although Gordon appears to have plenty left in the tank, Pearson provides the highest weekly ceiling.
Flex: TE Sal Cannella, Renegades ($7,100)
For the third straight week, I’m pushing Sal Cannella. His price tag has jumped from $5,400 to $6,500, and now $7,100. As expected.
Head coach Bob Stoops’ final college team included Mark Andrews. This franchise knew what they were doing when they drafted Cannella in the opening round of the “offensive skills” portion of November’s draft. And the matchup versus Orlando couldn’t be better.
Flex: WR Cody Latimer, Guardians ($4,100)
The Guardians are in heaps of trouble, as they’ve been severely outplayed in both contests. Candidly, I didn’t expect much from Latimer, but he’s risen to the occasion. With only $9,500 remaining for this slot and our D/ST — as designed in this deliberately top-heavy lineup — I’m comfortable rolling with Latimer with Paxton Lynch’s starting job on the line.
D/ST Roughnecks ($5,000)
The Renegades versus Orlando also look appealing. But Houston leads the XFL in interceptions, sacks, and tackles for loss. The Roughnecks’ offense moves the ball well. San Antonio needs to play their best football to win, and with Tolliver ailing and Kalen Ballage laboring, the Roughnecks seem like a safe 8+ point option with plenty of pop.
Whatever you decide, good luck.