The Kansas City Chiefs added two new wide receivers to their offense this offseason. After signing Hollywood Brown in free agency, the team went and drafted the speedy Xavier Worthy. Is the rookie poised to make an immediate impact in fantasy football?
Should You Select Xavier Worthy at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 92nd Overall (WR40)
- Intriguing Rookie Prospect: Worthy enters the NFL as a speedy wide receiver with a lot of potential. Despite his small stature, Worthy has proven to be a dynamic playmaker, breaking the 40-yard dash record with a 4.21 at the NFL Combine.
- Landing Spot in Kansas City: Worthy joins a Kansas City Chiefs offense that has historically relied heavily on its top receivers. With a chance to earn significant playing time, especially if Rashee Rice is suspended, Worthy could be a key contributor early in the season.
- Role in the Offense: Worthy may start as the odd man out in two-receiver sets, but his speed and playmaking ability could make it difficult for the Chiefs to keep him off the field. If he establishes himself early, he could see a significant target share.
- ADP Analysis: Worthy is currently being drafted as WR40, No. 92 overall. I have him ranked as WR35, making him a solid investment as a WR4 with WR2 upside.
- Final Verdict: Rookie wide receivers have been solid investments in recent years, and Worthy is no exception. While he may not post WR1 numbers, his potential to outperform his ADP makes him a worthy target in fantasy drafts.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Xavier Worthy
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Worthy is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus WR rankings instead.
37) Diontae Johnson, WR | Carolina Panthers
38) Brian Thomas Jr., WR | Jacksonville Jaguars
39) Hollywood Brown, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
40) DeAndre Hopkins, WR | Tennessee Titans
41) Calvin Ridley, WR | Tennessee Titans
42) Xavier Worthy, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
43) Courtland Sutton, WR | Denver Broncos
44) Keon Coleman, WR | Buffalo Bills
45) Rome Odunze, WR | Chicago Bears
46) Curtis Samuel, WR | Buffalo Bills
47) Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR | Seattle Seahawks
Worthy’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
This year’s rookie WR class includes several fascinating prospects who are a bit hard to project. Worthy is chief among them.
At 5’11”, 165 pounds, he would’ve been completely dismissed as too small to play in the NFL as recently as five years ago. Now, with the era of the small wide receiver upon us, we are seeing more and more receivers who look like Worthy.
When a wide receiver is that small, he has to be fast. That’s not a problem for Worthy, who broke the 40-yard dash record with a 4.21 at the NFL Combine.
Worthy is an early declare who broke out as an 18-year-old freshman at Texas. He has otherworldly speed and landed in an offense ideally suited to maximize his strengths.
If there is a concern with Worthy, it’s that he didn’t exactly improve throughout his three years at college. It’s not like he got worse; he just didn’t get noticeably better. Still, he was good enough that we have no reason to doubt he is capable of succeeding at the next level.
For the majority of Patrick Mahomes’ career, his only useful wide receiver was Tyreek Hill. Since Hill left, Mahomes’ best option was JuJu Smith-Schuster in 2022. Last season, things got so bad that nine different players saw 30+ targets.
This season, we should expect a target distribution that resembles a team with competent pass catchers. Most of the targets that went to the likes of Justin Watson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, and Skyy Moore should be consolidated between Brown and Worthy.
There’s a very real shot Worthy earns over a 20% target share as a rookie. Depending on the length of Rashee Rice’s suspension, Worthy could have a chance to shine early.
With everyone on the field, Worthy is probably the odd man out in two-receiver sets. If Rice misses a few games, it’s hard to imagine the Chiefs having a better option than a Brown-Worthy duo in those situations. If he can establish himself in the opening weeks, the rookie can make it very difficult for the team to take him off the field.
Is Worthy a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Historically, but especially more recently, rookie wide receivers have been very good investments in redraft leagues. Very few pop right away.
But over the second half of the season, we often see rookies come into their own. Final numbers that look unimpressive can be very beneficial to fantasy managers as they are frequently backloaded.
Worthy’s ADP sits at WR41, No. 94 overall. I have him ranked as WR35. This far down the ranks, that’s not a huge difference, but it’s enough to make it more likely I draft Worthy than not.
I am a big proponent of investing in young players. While Worthy is unlikely to post WR1 numbers in an offense with several playmakers, WR2 value from a guy technically being drafted as a WR4 is about as good as it gets. As a result, I would say Xavier is … Worthy of being someone targeted in fantasy drafts.
