The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Conference Championship Game. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding WR Xavier Worthy.
Is Xavier Worthy Playing vs. the Bills?
Worthy was not listed on the injury report this week. Barring any last-minute setbacks, he will play vs. Buffalo.
We’ll continue to monitor the Chiefs’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Xavier Worthy in the AFC Conference Championship Game?
It very much feels like a matter of “when,” not “if” we get the Xavier Worthy breakout game. Don’t get me wrong, he had a strong three-week run in December, but I think we all had peak DeSean Jackson-type explosion games in mind when the Chiefs made Worthy the No. 28 overall selection last April, and we haven’t gotten there yet.
Chiefs’ pass catcher snap shares, 2024 Divisional Round:
- Worthy: 68%
- Travis Kelce: 64%
- Hollywood Brown: 58%
- Noah Gray: 44%
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: 30%
- DeAndre Hopkins: 26%
Andy Reid drew up a fade to Worthy on Kansas City’s second drive last week and followed up that attempt with a running play to him. The eight-yard loss wasn’t optimal for those of us holding “anytime TD” tickets, but from a usage and projection standpoint, the Chiefs’ determination to get him involved is encouraging.
For the game, Worthy posted a 25% target share for the fourth straight contest, matching the longest streak Malik Nabers produced this season — you know, the all-time rookie leader in targets.
The writing is on the wall, I’m just not sure it happens in this spot.
Fifth in INT rate and seventh in yards per completion on deep balls (15+ air yards)
Seventh in TD/INT rate and eighth in passer rating and on short throws (under five air yards)
Buffalo’s defense seems uniquely geared to take away the extremes in the passing game (vertical shots and dump-offs), the exact area in which Worthy lives.
Could Reid scheme up creativity in the middle of the field? Of course, he could, and betting on Big Red in a big spot is generally a plus-EV move.
That said, we have proof that the Chiefs don’t need Worthy to put big numbers on the board to succeed, and with “Playoff Kelce” seemingly activated, the target share upside is a concern.
I’ll be making a pretty pro-Worthy case in a month when we turn our attention to the 2025 season. And while I understand how you can get there for this week, I’m choosing to avoid this matchup and get Kansas City exposure elsewhere.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Conference Championship Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Xavier Worthy’s Fantasy Points Projection in the AFC Conference Championship Game
As of Sunday morning, Worthy is projected to score 15.8 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 2.7 receptions for 80.6 yards and 0.4 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Bills' Defense
After finishing as a top-seven defense in each of the last three seasons, the Bills finished 18th during the regular season. That's not the biggest surprise given that this was largely billed as a rebuilding season for this unit.
Buffalo was a boom-or-bust defense in the Divisional Round vs. Baltimore, and there were just enough highs to escape with the win. In addition to the three takeaways, the Bills also generated their second-highest non-blitz pressure rate (42.9%) this season. The only higher rate was in the Wild Card win over the Broncos (50%).
This wasn't a particularly efficient defensive performance, as reflected in the final Defense+ grade of 69.9 (D+). Despite some run stuffs, the Bills had their worst rushing defense success rate all season (44%) and were fortunate the game script didn't allow the Ravens to lean more heavily on their run game.
Still, the Bills' offense is operating at such a high level that the bar to clear for the defense is lower than it would be on nearly any other team. Buffalo met that threshold with a few big plays against the Ravens. Those could be tougher to generate against a Chiefs offense that has gone eight straight games without a turnover, but it may be all the Bills need to finally conquer Kansas City.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Xavier Worthy’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:45 PM ET on Saturday, January 25.
Conference Championship WR PPR Rankings
1) A.J. Brown | PHI (vs. WAS)
2) Terry McLaurin | WAS (at PHI)
3) DeVonta Smith | PHI (vs. WAS)
4) Khalil Shakir | BUF (at KC)
5) Xavier Worthy | KC (vs. BUF)
6) Hollywood Brown | KC (vs. BUF)
7) DeAndre Hopkins | KC (vs. BUF)
8) Keon Coleman | BUF (at KC)
9) Dyami Brown | WAS (at PHI)
10) Mack Hollins | BUF (at KC)
11) Amari Cooper | BUF (at KC)
12) Curtis Samuel | BUF (at KC)
13) Olamide Zaccheaus | WAS (at PHI)
14) JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC (vs. BUF)
15) Jahan Dotson | PHI (vs. WAS)
16) Jamison Crowder | WAS (at PHI)
17) Luke McCaffrey | WAS (at PHI)
18) Justin Watson | KC (vs. BUF)
19) Johnny Wilson | PHI (vs. WAS)
20) Parris Campbell | PHI (vs. WAS)
21) Nikko Remigio | KC (vs. BUF)
22) Ainias Smith | PHI (vs. WAS)
Bills at Chiefs Trends and Insights
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills lost four road games during the regular season — only four Super Bowl champions in the 2000s have done that (2018 Patriots, 2012 Ravens, 2010 Packers, and 2006 Colts).
QB: Five times has a QB had four games in a season (playoffs included) with multiple rush touchdowns and 20 pass attempts.
- 2021 Jalen Hurts
- 2022 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Josh Allen
- 2024 Josh Allen
No player has had five such games in a season.
Offense: The Bills have scored on at least 55% of their possessions six times this season, four of which have come against playoff teams.
Defense: Buffalo allowed Baltimore to pick up 70% of their third downs. That’s the fourth-highest rate the Bills have allowed in the 2000s and is their highest in a winning effort.
Fantasy: Allen has completed over 72% of his passes in both playoff wins – he had three such games during the regular season.
Betting: Overs are 5-2 in Buffalo’s past seven games, cashing last week by half a point with Baltimore's final touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: Christmas Day 2023 was the date of Kansas City’s last home loss – each of their past six Arrowhead games have been decided by a single possession.
QB: Patrick Mahomes has thrown a total of three touchdown passes in his last two Championship games (3.7% of his attempts) after throwing three in each of his first four appearances (8.4%).
Offense: Saturday was the 10th time this season in which the Chiefs scored on at least half of their possessions (five-of-nine against Houston).
Defense: Opponents have picked up at least half of their third downs in four straight games against the Chiefs (Texans: 10-of-17).
Fantasy: In the last two games in which their starters have been extended, the Chiefs have managed to turn 42 carries into just 119 yards (2.83 yards per carry).
Betting: By taking an intentional safety at the end of their win over the Texans, the Chiefs snapped their six-game playoff cover streak.
