Xavier Legette’s Fantasy Outlook: Dynasty Buy, Learning Curve Expected

Carolina Panthers WR Xavier Legette was the final pick of the first round in April, and that draft capital will get him on the field during his first season. But asking him to produce on any sort of regular basis in a limited offense is a bit of a stretch.

Let’s take a look at Legette’s fantasy football outlook to measure his path to immediate (and long-term) success in this developmental situation.

Xavier Legette’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast

It’s not you, it’s me.

And by “me,” I mean “your situation.” Last season, the Panthers produced as underwhelming off an offensive profile that we’ve seen:

• 32nd in yards per play
• 32nd in sack rate allowed
• 31st in scoring
• 30th in third-down conversion rate

I could list seven more stats, but what would be the point?

New head coach Dave Canales comes over from Tampa Bay to develop this offense, and while I think he’s the right man for the job, expecting him to wave a magic wand and get this team to even league average is a big ask.

Your comfort level in taking a flier on Legette (currently a 13th-round pick) will naturally require you to buy Bryce Young. Even if you believe he improves exponentially, the profile of a Year 2 quarterback feeding a Year 1 wide receiver isn’t one we see pay off at a high level.

Last season, 41 receivers averaged over 11.25 PPR points per game. Over the past decade, here are the rookie receivers that have done that with a Year 2 quarterback:

• 2015 Stefon Diggs
• 2015 Amari Cooper
• 2017 Cooper Kupp
• 2021 Jaylen Waddle
• 2021 Ja’Marr Chase
• 2021 DeVonta Smith

Do you have Legette labeled as that sort of prospect?

We have a scouting team here at PFN for a reason, and fantasy managers would be wise to lean on the film eye of both Ian Cummings and Derek Tate when it comes to the rookie class. Here is what Cummings highlighted as the selling points in Legette’s profile:

Sources tell @caplannfl that @GamecockFB breakout star Xavier Legette may have the most upside of any WR in this year's draft class. 👀#NFLDraft | #SpursUp pic.twitter.com/OqeCNPOmTn

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) April 9, 2024

• Dense, compact receiver with a supersized core, rare mass, and a wide catch radius.
• Elite explosive threat and size-speed anomaly who can teleport upfield through creases.
• Flashes good hip flexibility and can roll his hips to pinch tight angles on corner routes.
• Shows glimpses of high-end throttle control and stop-and-start freedom as a separator.
• Able to snap back and swivel his base freely on hitches after pressing into stems.
• Has great blindspot awareness and can use his speed and bend to peel behind DBs.
• Instinctive catch-point operator who can work back to underthrown balls and adapt.

There is certainly something there in Legette; I’m just not sold that we see it this season. I believe that Brandin Cooks will regress significantly in 2024, and I’d still rather have him in a pass-happy offense than Legette.

My two favorite receivers in this range are Joshua Palmer and Gabe Davis. Both have yet to showcase much in the way of consistency, but they’ve flashed talent and have quarterbacks responsible for getting them the ball that I trust more than Young.

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Palmer and Davis also have a path to lead their respective receiver rooms in targets, something that might require not one, but two injuries for me to say about Carolina’s rookie.

Dynasty rosters are built through the receiver position, and Legette teaming up with a young quarterback to go along with a strong offensive mind is enticing. The long-term outlook is rosy, though that doesn’t mean he will hit the ground running.