The NFL Draft is an inexact science. The Trey Lance trade-up will live in infamy for San Francisco 49ers fans. Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch deserve a ton of credit for what they’ve been able to build and sustain as an organization.
Having success does not mean the process of getting there was ideal. It’s like the billionaire who seemingly stumbles over every decision they make, but they’re a billionaire, so they have to secretly be a genius… right?
Drafting a kicker in the third round or sending three first-round picks for the rights to draft a player who started four games over two seasons is an awful process, even if the team has success in spite of the decision.
The Trey Lance Draft Day Trade
The Miami Dolphins have worked their way around a few high-profile NFL trades in recent seasons. The Laremy Tunsil deal was the reason why they were in the draft position to trade with San Francisco, as the No. 3 overall pick was Houston’s.
The 49ers traded the 12th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, a 2022 first-round pick, a 2022 third-round pick, and a 2023 first-round pick to Miami in exchange for that No. 3 pick.
At the time, it felt like an NBA trade, a league where players are valued incredibly high relative to draft capital. But the NFL doesn’t run that way, and this outcome is why.
Between the Tunsil and Lance trades, Miami received Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Noah Igbinoghene, Jevon Holland, Channing Tindall, Erik Ezukanma, and more.
The 49ers were a talented football team in a Super Bowl window at the time, but Shanahan wanted more athletic potential and a more healthy and stable option at QB. Jimmy Garoppolo was efficient when healthy but had struggled to consistently remain healthy during his time in San Francisco.
Between injuries and the emergence of Brock Purdy, it was clear heading into this season that Lance had completely lost favor in the organization.
MORE: Why Did the 49ers Decide To Trade Trey Lance to the Cowboys?
Lance played a bit during his rookie season, but he was a high-ceiling QB with very little college experience that needed time to progress at the NFL level. He was going to get that time in 2022, but he fractured his ankle early in Week 2 of the regular season. His career in San Francisco never got off the ground.
But trading three first-round picks and a third-round pick for a quarterback who only attempted 102 passes for the franchise will live as one of the worst draft day trades of all time.
Ricky Williams and Herschel Walker Headline the Worst NFL Trades
The Lance trade is far from the only massive mistake teams have made. The Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings teamed up to spark the Cowboys’ early-90s run of three Super Bowl victories in a four-year span.
Herschel Walker Trade
Looking at the Herschel Walker trade now is a reminder of just how far the RB value has fallen. By the time the deal was finalized, 18 players and picks were switching hands.
The Cowboys were coming off a 1-15 season, and the Vikings thought they were a Walker away from a Super Bowl.
Cowboys received:
LB Jesse Solomon
LB David Howard
CB Issiac Holt
DE Alex Stewart
MIN 1st (1990)
MIN 2nd (1990)
MIN 6th (1990)
MIN 1st (1991)
MIN 2nd (1992)
MIN 3rd (1992)
Vikings received:
RB Herschel Walker
DAL 3rd (1990)
SD 5th (1990)
DAL 10th (1990)
DAL 3rd (1991)
Chargers received:
RB Darrin Nelson
The Cowboys eventually ended up with Emmitt Smith, Alexander Wright, Russell Maryland, Alvin Harper, Dixon Edwards, Kevin Smith, and Darren Woodson. They also won three Super Bowls, while Walker only lasted three seasons in Minnesota.
Ricky Williams Trade
It sounds absurd to think about the Ricky Williams trade in 2023. Back in 1999, Mike Ditka and the New Orleans Saints traded every pick they owned in that draft, plus two from the next draft, for the rights to select Williams.
Washington ended up trading many of the Saints picks to move back up to No. 7 for Champ Bailey. They used the Saints 2000 first-round pick to select Lavar Arrington.
Ditka was so enamored with Williams that he agreed to be on the cover of ESPN The Magazine with Williams. Ditka dressed as the groom, and Williams, the bride. Well, death (figuratively) did do them part not a year later. New Orleans won only three games in 1999, and the Saints fired Ditka.
The RGIII and Lance Deals Have Peculiar Similarities
Shanahan must have déjà vu. Although Robert Griffin III flashed incredible potential early in his NFL career, it was short-lived. Griffin tore his knee in January of his rookie season and was never able to rekindle that flame he set early on.
And Shanahan watched this unfold not from his couch or online but from the sidelines as Griffin’s offensive coordinator.
RGIII Deal
Washington traded their first-round picks in 2012, 2013, and 2014. They also gave up their 2012 second-round pick. So at least Shanahan can take solace in the fact that he gave up slightly less to select Lance almost a decade later.
The Rams were smart and used those picks to create more picks, and ended up with a solid haul.
Rams players drafted:
DT Michael Brockers
CB Janoris Jenkins
RB Isaiah Pead
G Rokevious Watkins
LB Alec Ogletree
WR Stedman Bailey
RB Zac Stacy
T Greg Robinson
Washington sort of found their franchise QB in fourth-round pick Kirk Cousins in that same draft. Although Brock Purdy was drafted in the seventh round a year after Lance, there are similarities in the two situations.
The Mitch Trubisky and Ryan Leaf Deals Were Terrible
In both cases, a team sitting with the third pick in the NFL Draft wanted the right to select the second QB of the class.
Despite warning signs of a spiraling Ryan Leaf staring the NFL world in the face, Chargers GM Bobby Beathard wanted Leaf. To move up a single spot, San Diego traded the third pick, their second-round pick, their first-round pick the following season, Eric Metcalf, and Patrick Sapp.
MORE: Best Quarterbacks in the NFL 2023
Although the Arizona Cardinals were unable to dominate with the selections they received from San Diego, the Chargers paid a steep price to move up one spot.
The Bears didn’t trade any players to the 49ers to move up a single spot for Mitchell Trubisky, but it did take four picks.
In 2017, Chicago moved the third pick, the 67th pick, the 111th pick, and the 70th pick in the 2018 NFL Draft to move up a single spot. While the 49ers botched the third-overall pick (another theme), that 70th pick in 2018 became Fred Warner. San Francisco traded the 67th pick to the Saints, who used it on Alvin Kamara.
But the gut punch comes from peering down the draft order a few more spots in Round 1 to find that Patrick Mahomes was in the same draft class. Six years later, the Bears may have finally found their franchise passer, but it’s no guarantee yet.