The winter is when the NFL playoffs heat up, but some teams are already looking ahead to spring. After four weeks, it’s harder to dismiss slow starts as small sample flukes. Below are the teams that have statistically been the worst in the NFL so far in the 2024 season.
Unless otherwise stated, all stats are courtesy of TruMedia.
0-4 Jacksonville Jaguars Winless After Brutal Start
The first 0-4 team in the league is a Jacksonville Jaguars squad that many figured would contend for the playoffs. After a 47-10 debacle on Monday night last week, Jacksonville played much better in a short week at Houston. But the defense failed to hold C.J. Stroud on the final drive, leading to Jacksonville’s ninth straight loss with Trevor Lawrence starting.
The Jaguars have had persistent problems executing late in games, losing six consecutive one-score contests. Their last win in a one-score game was also Lawrence’s most recent win as a starter: Week 12 at Houston last season.
MADE FOR THE MOMENT ‼️
📺: @NFLonCBS / @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/0YUWwBRL8m
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) September 29, 2024
But even the most optimistic view cannot mask that the Jaguars have earned their winless record. Jacksonville ranks 23rd in expected points added (EPA) on offense and 30th on defense. Cumulatively, they have the 2nd-worst combined offensive and defensive EPA in the league this season (-54.04), ahead of only the Patriots.
The Jags do have five straight games against teams currently .500 or worse, which will be a relief after a brutal stretch of opponents to begin the year. But the playoffs are almost a statistical impossibility — the 1992 San Diego Chargers are the only team to make the playoffs after starting 0-4 — which could make for the end of Doug Pederson’s tenure in Duval County.
0-3 Tennessee Titans Seeking First Win on MNF
The Tennessee Titans adopted a win-now mentality this offseason, adding veterans such as Calvin Ridley, L’Jarius Sneed, and Quandre Diggs. Unfortunately for Tennessee, their second-year quarterback Will Levis has floundered thus far, leaving the Titans as one of two winless teams entering a Monday night visit to Miami.
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Levis leads the NFL with eight turnovers despite playing one fewer game than most quarterbacks, an ominous sign for his grip on the starting job. The Titans have lost a whopping -11.17 EPA on turnovers this season — for perspective, the gap between the Titans and the 31st-place Indianapolis Colts is larger than the gap between the Colts and the ninth-place Baltimore Ravens.
The Titans’ revamped defense has lived up to the billing despite difficult circumstances, ranking 10th in EPA per play. But so long as the offense continues to self-sabotage, the Titans face an impossible path to victory most weeks.
1-Win Panthers Still Struggling After QB Change
Even after the quarterback switch to Andy Dalton delivered a win in Las Vegas, the Carolina Panthers have the worst point differential in the league (-56). Carolina ranks 24th or worse in total EPA in offense, defense, and special teams, the only team in the league with that dubious distinction.
The offense is likely a better unit than that so long as Dalton remains at quarterback, but that’s not enough to save the Panthers from being among the worst teams in the league.
The generational run for Will Levis continues pic.twitter.com/iOeRjh9J1o
— NFL Memes (@NFL_Memes) September 22, 2024
Carolina’s defense has allowed teams to score touchdowns on an astounding 91.7% of red-zone drives thus far (11-for-12). Since 2000, that’s the fourth-worst red-zone defense through four games (min. 10 red-zone drives faced).
The Panthers are at the very beginning stages of their rebuild, and it’s clear they’ll look for a new long-term quarterback answer after benching Bryce Young. The only consolation for Carolina fans is that they’ll at least have their pick this year as they contend for No. 1 overall.
1-Win Patriots Reeling Since Season-Opening Victory
The New England Patriots fell to 1-3 after a 30-13 loss to the San Francisco 49ers. The Patriots were never really in the game against a far superior team, and the good vibes from New England’s Week 1 upset win at Cincinnati continue to fade further and further into the rearview mirror.
Almost no one expected the Patriots to contend this season, with their preseason win total of 4.5 being the lowest in the league, per Sharp Football Analysis. The offensive struggles are no surprise — the Patriots rank 28th in EPA per play, driven in large part by allowing a league-high 45.8% pressure rate through three games.
Fred doing Fred things 💪
📺 #NEvsSF on FOX
NFL+ // https://t.co/KTh0i4nCVJ pic.twitter.com/6FglMdkuEe— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) September 29, 2024
The more surprising development is how the Patriots appear to have lost some of their defensive DNA despite promoting Jerod Mayo to head coach. New England ranks 24th in defensive EPA per play, a huge decline after finishing fourth last year.
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Yes, the Patriots traded Matt Judon before the season and have not had standout defensive tackle Christian Barmore (on the non-football injury list due to blood clots). But last year’s unit excelled despite Judon and Christian Gonzalez going down for the season in Week 4, so the issues stretch beyond personnel.
The Patriots’ immediate future is all about creating the best environment possible for Drake Maye, so the offensive struggles get nearly all the attention. But if the defense’s decline is real, New England’s path back to contention is longer than anyone imagined.
