After a surprisingly sensational 2024 season in which the Minnesota Vikings finished 14-3, the team wasted no time locking in the architect behind much of their success. Head coach Kevin O’Connell received a massive contract extension, making him one of the NFL’s top 10 highest-paid coaches — a well-earned reward for leading the Vikings to one of their best regular-season finishes in franchise history.
But despite their dominant regular season, the Vikings didn’t make much noise in the playoffs, falling 27-9 in the Wild Card round against the Los Angeles Rams. Now, they face a pivotal offseason decision: who will be their starting quarterback in 2025?
NFL Insider Predicts Minnesota Vikings Will Let Sam Darnold Sign Elsewhere
With Sam Darnold hitting free agency and J.J. McCarthy waiting in the wings after missing the entire rookie year to an injury, Minnesota has a crucial call to make. While it’s widely believed it will keep Darnold with a franchise tag, one NFL insider predicts it won’t be ready to make such an expensive move for the veteran.
McCarthy suffered a season-ending knee injury during the preseason and remained sidelined for his entire rookie year.
Darnold stepped in his absence and put together the best year of his career, throwing for 4,319 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions with a 102.5 passer rating. His performance earned him a Pro Bowl selection, but it seems it won’t be enough for a franchise tag.
NFL Nation’s Kevin Seifert says the Vikings are unlikely to spend $41,325,000 on Darnold, and signing him on a long-term deal isn’t feasible either as they look at McCarthy as their franchise quarterback.
“Using the tag on quarterback Sam Darnold would be an expensive way of ensuring his return while avoiding a longer-term commitment that would hinder J.J. McCarthy’s eventual ascension. It could also be a way to elicit additional value by way of a trade, but that would require a knowledge that multiple teams would be willing to bid.
“In the end, the Vikings seem more likely to let Darnold sign elsewhere and preserve their tag for a player such as cornerback Byron Murphy Jr., who had a career-high six interceptions in 2024 and is hitting his prime at age 27. If nothing else, it would give the Vikings time to sign Murphy to a longer-term deal while keeping him off the market.”
While Darnold, who was on a one-year, $10 million deal last season, finished 12th in PFSN’s QB+ metric, his late-season struggles were alarming and could be one of the reasons behind the Vikings’ decision to let go of him.
In his final two games, Darnold threw 23 off-target passes and took 11 sacks. He posted a negative expected points added per dropback (EPA/DB) of -0.85 under pressure against the Rams. His performance was subpar even from a clean pocket, with a -0.02 EPA/DB. Combined with a 4.1 net yards per attempt (nYPA), the goodwill he earned with the fans has faded.
Another thing that raises some red flags is that Darnold has had issues inside the opposing half on a handful of occasions. He finished the season ranked 30th with a -0.08 EPA/DB in those situations. However, he was generally fine in other clutch situations and converted 39.3% of third-down opportunities (15th).
Releasing Darnold seems to be an easier option for Minnesota, but it hasn’t tested McCarthy yet, which makes it very tricky for the Vikings’ front office.
The veteran Darnold is ranked 10th in PFSN’s Top 100 Free Agents and will have several suitors in the market if the Vikings do let go of him.
