If you claimed that before the 2024 NFL season kicked off, you thought Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold would finish the year ranked top five in touchdown passes, passing yardage, and quarterback rating, we want proof. Because based on Darnold’s disappointing six-year, pre-Minnesota career, nobody saw the 27-year-old’s MVP-level performance coming, likely not even the Vikings stalwart himself.
Is Good Sam Darnold a Bad Problem?
When Darnold inked with Minnesota on March 14, 2024, it was generally believed that if (or, more likely, when) the Vikes drafted one of the top quarterbacks in the QB-heavy draft, he’d become the rookie’s bridge and/or mentor.
And after the Vikings brought Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy into the building, Darnold was on board with this plan, telling the Minnesota Star Tribune:
“It’s just how it goes, right? There’s a lot of businesses where you can be in your business for 30-40 years, and the NFL I think the average is like 3-4 years. It’s a little bit different. Going into my seventh year now, even though I still am young, I do feel like a vet and just being able to help guys — not only J.J., but help any young guys in the locker room that need anything, I’m always happy to help.”
Minnsota’s offensive plans went sideways on Aug. 3, however, when McCarthy tore his meniscus, leaving the QB1 slot to Darnold. Much to Minnesota’s happy surprise, the journeyman took advantage, throwing 11 touchdowns in his first four games.
Darnold comes into his season finale with a crazy-good stat sheet: 35 touchdowns, 4,135 yards, and a QBR 63.3 — all career highs by far.
The 27-year-old also scored well on PFN’s QB+ metric, grading out at 82.4 (B-), ahead of Jordan Love (80.2), Justin Herbert (77.8), and Kyler Murray (76.7) — helping the Vikes compile a whoda-thunk-it record of 14-2, leaving them one victory — in Detroit, against the Lions, yikes — away from finishing 2024 with the NFC’s top mark.
This leaves Minnesota in a bit of a pickle. Do they hand the reins over to McCarthy as initially planned, or do they commit to Darnold long term? (The Vikings could give Darnold the franchise tag, but that would be a cop-out. A logical cop-out, but a cop-out nonetheless.)
If the Vikings let Darnold walk and do indeed fully commit to McCarthy, the veteran won’t be out of work for long. Approximately 22% of the league is in desperate need of a young-ish, high-level quarterback.
Here are seven QB-starved franchises who might open up their checkbook and offer the former USC Trojan, oh, let’s say, a four-year, $152 million deal.
Carolina Panthers
2024 Starter: Bryce Young
QB+: 64.6 (D)
Darnold’s Fit: Young currently boasts 225 rushing yards in 13 games, while Darnold managed 202 yards in 16 outings. The Carolina Panthers’ offense seems designed for a quarterback with fast feet, and Darnold is less about quick wheels and more about a Howitzer arm.
Square peg, round hole, anybody?
Will They or Won’t They?: Nope. Young is still on his rookie deal, and he showed improvement as the season progressed. The Panthers franchise will give the former top pick plenty of rope…until they don’t.
Cleveland Browns
2024 Starter: Jameis Winston
QB+: D / 66.5
Darnold’s Fit: Offensively speaking, the Cleveland Browns are a mess. Some of it was their own doing — the Deshaun Watson trade was a franchise-killing disaster — while some of it was just bad luck (e.g., Nick Chubb’s depressing rash of injuries).
Watson’s contract, recent injury history, and off-field reputation will make it difficult for Cleveland to send him packing, but one could assume that if they could, they would.
Will They or Won’t They?: Doubtful, as Watson’s contract is too onerous. His deal runs through 2026, and cutting him this summer would be a…wait for it, wait for it…$172 million dead cap hit! Much to the chagrin of the Browns’ frustrated fan base, Darnold won’t be moving to Ohio.
Las Vegas Raiders
2024 Starter: Aidan O’Connell
QB+: 76.9 (C)
Darnold’s Fit: The Las Vegas Raiders haven’t had steady quarterback play since the Derek Carr era came to an ignominious close in 2022. Since then, Vegas plopped O’Connell, Jimmy Garoppolo, Brian Hoyer, Gardner Minshew II, and Desmond Ridder behind center, with little in the way of consistency or success. Based on what we’ve seen up in Minneapolis over the last five months, Darnold can give them just that.
Will They or Won’t They?: Outside of Minnesota, Vegas seems like Darnold’s most logical landing spot. Plus, minority owner Tom Brady wants to get more involved with the team, so a bank-breaking offer to the best signal-caller on the market wouldn’t be a shocker.
New Orleans Saints
2024 Starter: Derek Carr
QB+: 83.6 (B)
Darnold’s Fit: Carr isn’t a bad comp for Darnold. They’re equally accurate, currently sharing almost identical completion percentages (Darnold: 68.1%, Carr: 67.7%). They’re also both mobile but not super-speedy (Carr runs a 4.69 40, while Darnold clocks in at 4.85).
Additionally, each has a sturdy build. They’re both 6’3” and weigh 220 pounds, give or take, and thus, can take a hit. However, Darnold is six years younger.
Should They or Shouldn’t They?: Carr still has two more years on his contract, and cutting him would leave the New Orleans Saints with a $50-ish million dead cap hit, so they’d likely try to finagle a trade. If they can move Carr, suffice it to say that it’d be fun to see a Darnold-Alvin Kamara backfield, wouldn’t it?
New York Giants
2024 Starter: Drew Lock
QB+: 62.5 (D-)
Darnold’s Fit: Anybody would fit with Malik Nabers. Anybody.
Will They or Won’t They?: As has often been the case over much of the last decade, the New York Giants are a tad rudderless — they lack identity, direction, and, y’know, wins.
The last quarterback to lead the Giants to 10+ victories was Eli Manning in 2016, when they went 11-5. So if general manager Joe Schoen (or his potential replacement) can work some salary cap magic, New York should most definitely give Darnold the car keys.
New York Jets
2024 Starter: Aaron Rodgers
QB+: 71.2 (C-)
Darnold’s Fit: This would be, in a word, weird. Darnold spent the first three years of his career in green and white, years that were, at best, disappointing. He managed just 13 wins in his 38 starts, but after their Aaron Rodgers experience, the New York Jets should put anything and everything on the table.
Will They or Won’t They?: Nah. Even though it’s a solid pairing, there would likely be a whole lot of awkward backlash. Plus, nobody in the NFL likes to admit making a huge mistake.
Tennessee Titans
2024 Starter: Will Levis
QB+: 61.7 (D-)
Darnold’s Fit: Levis might look at Darnold’s career and think, “Hmm, that could be me.”
As was the case during Darnold’s Jets tenure, the 25-year-old Levis has demonstrated he has the tools, but the results show us that he’s a raw work-in-progress who has the chance to blossom in three years.
Do the Tennessee Titans, who haven’t sniffed the postseason since 2021, have the patience to wait?
Will They or Won’t They?: Levis is still on his rookie contract, while Darnold will request a king’s ransom. The Titans’ timeline (such as it is) doesn’t seem to support throwing a heap of cash at somebody who might be a one-year wonder.