The 2023 NFL offseason is drawing closer by the day, so it’s time to evaluate depth charts and determine what path these teams should take to build out their rosters for the future. One key player for the New Orleans Saints is TE Juwan Johnson — we’ll review his contract and 2023 market value. Should they re-sign him or let him walk in free agency?
Juwan Johnson’s Past Production
Johnson entered the NFL in 2020 as a UDFA out of Oregon. As a bigger WR for the Ducks, Johnson racked up 467 receiving yards and four touchdowns in his final year of college. But it wasn’t enough to catch the eye of NFL scouts, and he ended up signing with New Orleans after the 2020 NFL Draft.
The first two years of his career, Johnson didn’t see much opportunity in the Saints’ offense. He totaled just 32 targets in 2020 and 2021, but he was able to find the end zone four times last season alone.
In 2022 though, Johnson has taken a major step forward as a part of the offense and has now seen 49 targets through 12 games. He’s been able to reel in 31 receptions for 349 yards and five touchdowns up to this point. Indeed, he’s one of the few bright spots on offense this season for an otherwise disappointing unit.
While Johnson’s production has spiked this season, he’s still just 18th in the NFL at the TE position in receiving yards this season through 13 weeks. He’s been effective when compared to the rest of the Saints’ roster — Johnson currently leads the team in touchdown receptions — but the lack of production relative to the rest of the league will hinder his leverage in contract talks.
Juwan Johnson’s Contract/Market Value
Johnson is currently playing on a one-year deal with the Saints, including an average annual salary of $895,000. This ranks outside of the top 100 contracts for the position in regard to total value. Johnson is slated to hit free agency in 2023 as a restricted free agent.
To assess Johnson’s market value, it’s important to recognize that he does not fit the true classification of a TE in the NFL. The majority of TEs in the NFL are lining up in-line the majority of the time, whereas someone like Johnson is being moved around the formation and utilized as a hybrid player.
For reference, Johnson has played 657 snaps this season so far. According to Pro Football Focus, the Saints TE has lined up for 258 snaps in-line (attached to the line of scrimmage) vs. 186 snaps in the slot. He’s also lined up for 56 snaps out wide and even five snaps out of the backfield.
This makes gauging his market value difficult.
A fair comparison for a player who has been moved around similarly in his offense is Hayden Hurst. Last offseason, Hurst signed a one-year deal with the Bengals for an AAV of $3.5 million. We should expect something similar for Johnson in the upcoming market.
The New Orleans Saints’ Depth Chart
The Saints have a need next season for Johnson to return. While Adam Trautman and Taysom Hill are players under contract for them in 2023 at the TE position, Hill fills a much different role for New Orleans than Johnson does.
Trautman was drafted to be a receiving threat in the offense, but he has failed to live up to those expectations in the first few years of his career. If the Saints feel like they can get Trautman to take a step forward this offseason, Johnson becomes a player that the team likely doesn’t see as necessary to bring back.
If not, they certainly could use Johnson back on the roster as a red-zone threat if the contract value is fair.
The biggest wild card in this conversation is the Saints’ cap situation. New Orleans is currently projected to be $60mil over the salary cap in 2023. They will have to get incredibly creative to free some cap room up to re-sign pending free agents.
The Saints would probably prefer to have Johnson back next season, but the salary cap situation makes it likely that he plays for another franchise in 2023 and beyond.