The Dallas Cowboys stumbled upon their answer to who would replace Jason Witten as their tight end of the future in Dalton Schultz. But if Dallas wants to keep Schultz beyond this season, the team will have to decide whether he’s worth a long-term contract. Will Schultz be playing in Dallas in 2023?
Dalton Schultz Is Currently Playing on the Franchise Tag
It’s actually quite rare for players to play out a season on the franchise tag. Teams frequently slap the tag on players when they can’t come to a long-term agreement by the deadline, but more often than not, they ultimately reach an agreement.
In 2022, eight players were hit with the franchise tag, but only four wound up playing the season on it. One of those players is Schultz.
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After the Cowboys used the franchise tag on Schultz, reports were a long-term contract extension was likely. Unfortunately, that never came to fruition. Schultz wound up signing the tag and playing the season on a one-year, $10.9 million deal.
Can the Cowboys Afford a New Contract for Dalton Schultz?
When playing on the franchise tag, it’s just a one-year contract. So, Schultz’s full $10.9 million goes against the team’s salary cap.
This offseason, the Cowboys have some decisions to make. Dallas has a potential out on Ezekiel Elliott’s exorbitant $90 million contract, and they have to decide whether they want to bring back Tony Pollard. Most concerningly, the Cowboys have 23 players with expiring contracts, many of which are players they would like to extend.
Decisions will have to be made.
With all that said, the Cowboys need Schultz. He’s been a productive tight end since replacing the guy they thought was their TE of the future, the oft-injured Blake Jarwin.
Tagging Schultz again is always an option, but the tag is more expensive the second time around. It would cost the team roughly $13.1 million in 2023. It’s also unlikely Schultz would be willing to play out yet another season without his future secured.
Schultz will be 27 years old next season and is just now entering his prime for tight ends. While Schultz has made it clear he wants to come back, the Cowboys have put in contingencies for the future. The team drafted Jake Ferguson in the fourth round last year. He’s been developing and could be the starter if they let Schultz walk.
What Might the Tight End Market Look Like?
Schultz is a nice player, but we can safely ignore comparisons to guys like Travis Kelce and George Kittle. A better player to look at would be David Njoku.
Schultz has been more productive through his first five seasons than Njoku was. Yet, the Browns gave the 24-year-old four years, $54.7 million.
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Buffalo, meanwhile, gave 24-year-old Dawson Knox four years, $52 million. A 25-year-old, largely unproductive Jonnu Smith got four years, $50 million. You have to imagine Schultz will be looking for a deal in this range.
Locking up a player long term has its benefits in how teams can manipulate the salary cap. With that said, it’s likely Schultz would end up getting an average yearly salary of close to what the franchise tag would be. Something in the $12-13 million range seems right.
Where Could Schultz Land in 2023?
I do think the Cowboys will make a strong effort to bring Schultz back. At the same time, if Schultz was a true top priority, I also think they would’ve extended him last summer. The fact that they didn’t tells me he’s expendable, at least to a certain extent. The Cowboys appear content with the idea of moving forward with Ferguson as their TE1, if necessary.
If Schultz does leave Dallas, there will be no shortage of suitors for his services. Among teams that would be good fits are the Dolphins, Bengals, Jaguars, Titans, Texans, Lions, Panthers, and Saints. Schultz would provide a sizable upgrade on the position for all of those teams.
Ultimately, I lean more on the side of Jerry Jones figuring out a way to bring Schultz back. But it’s not like a Dak Prescott or Ezekiel Elliott situation where you knew it was inevitable. It’s more of a 60/40 proposition.
Schultz should be back in Dallas, but it’s far from a certainty. The combination of the Cowboys’ team contract situation, how the team handled Schultz last year, and what he wants for his future, all give him reasons to leave if the deal isn’t right.