The 2023 NFL offseason is drawing closer by the day, so it’s time to evaluate depth charts and determine what path these teams should take to build out their rosters for the future. One key player for the Arizona Cardinals is J.J. Watt — we’ll review his contract and 2023 market value. Should they re-sign Watt or let him walk in free agency?
Update: J.J. Watt announced on Twitter on Dec. 27, 2022 that he’s retiring from the NFL following the 2023 NFL season.
J.J. Watt’s Past Production
If you’ve paid attention to football at all over the past decade, you know who Watt is and what he’s accomplished. After being drafted with the 11th overall selection in the 2011 NFL Draft, Watt has gone on to win five first-team All-Pro nominations, has been selected to the Pro Bowl five times, and is currently ranked fifth among all active players in total career sacks with 108.5.
On top of all that, Watt is tied with just Aaron Donald and Lawrence Taylor to be the NFL Defensive Player of the Year three separate times in their career. Watt’s put together an NFL Hall of Fame résumé, and he’s not showing any signs of slowing down, even as he nears the latter portion of his career.
Through 11 games so far in 2022, Watt has recorded 6.5 sacks, which is the 26th most in the NFL. He may not be near the top of the league anymore in this category as he once was, but Watt’s still proving to be an effective player for the Cardinals at the age of 33.
Watt is certainly dealt with a long list of injuries over the course of his 12-year NFL career, but he’s stayed healthy up to this point of the 2022 season and should still be able to provide a team with valuable depth at a key position if he does reach the open market.
J.J. Watt’s Contract/Market Value
Watt is heading toward free agency this offseason after finishing a two-year deal with Arizona worth a total of $28 million. He had $20 million guaranteed at signing and has an average annual salary of $14 million.
According to Spotrac, Watt’s calculated market value in 2023 is an AAV of $7.6 million on a two-year deal when taking into account his age and recent production.
The Arizona Cardinals’ Depth Chart
The Cardinals are currently running a base 3-4 defensive scheme under Vance Joseph, with Watt as one of the starting DEs. Currently sitting behind him on the depth chart is Jonathan Ledbetter, who has just 11 total tackles through his three-year NFL career.
The other defensive end on the roster is Zach Allen, who has been performing well this season for Arizona, but he’s also slated to be an unrestricted free agent in 2023.
Otherwise, Arizona does not have other players on their roster to turn to next season to take the place of Watt on this defensive line. Even as he nears the end of his career, Arizona would certainly welcome him back at the current projected AAV simply to fill the major hole that they’ll have.
There are several factors that will dictate whether or not Watt returns to Arizona this next season. The first is whether or not Watt wants to return to play for the Cardinals.
At this stage of his career, Watt is almost certainly going to be looking to secure a Super Bowl ring before he contemplates retirement. Will Arizona offer that best possibility in 2023?
Secondly, this decision may not be the current coaching staff and front office’s choice to make. With how drastically Kliff Kingsbury and Steve Keim have underperformed this season, their names are among the top when it comes to management on the “hot seat.”
If a new coaching staff and front office is put in place, we could potentially see a rebuild enter into the conversation for the Cardinals. If that’s the case, Watt’s almost certainly not going to re-sign with the team and he’ll go play for a championship somewhere else.
With all of his career accomplishments — plus the fact that he’s still able to contribute at this stage of his career — it’s evident that Watt will be able to choose where he ends up next offseason.
Arizona will have to do an incredible job of selling him on the vision for this franchise over the next two years to get him to return.