Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford was the second-oldest quarterback to start the majority of his team’s games in 2024, behind only Aaron Rodgers. As Stafford approaches his 37th birthday, what’s the case for and against him continuing his career with a fifth season in Los Angeles?
Why Matthew Stafford Could Keep Playing
Stafford was healthy in 2024 and reasonably productive. It was the first time he didn’t miss a game due to injury since the 2021 season (he sat out the team’s Week 18 contest this season in a coach’s decision).
While his counting stats weren’t spectacular, most of Stafford’s rate stats were similar or slightly improved compared to 2023. He increased his completion percentage (62.6% in 2023 to 65.8% this season) and success rate (47.6% to 49.0%) while decreasing his interception rate (2.1% to 1.5%). The interception rate was Stafford’s lowest in any season of his career (excluding the 2010 season when he played only three games).
The Rams have a strong supporting cast capable of aiding Stafford as he ages. Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Kyren Williams are all under contract for next season. Los Angeles also has ample cap room thanks to a very young and cheap defense, giving them multiple avenues to further improve the team. Spotrac estimates the Rams with just under $59 million in cap space for 2025, the 10th-most entering this offseason.
In terms of draft assets, the Rams won’t have their second-round pick due to trading up for defensive tackle Braden Fiske last year. However, they have an extra third-round compensatory pick already as a result of the Falcons hiring Raheem Morris as their head coach.
Sean McVay has shown no signs of departing, giving the Rams an extremely high floor. Since McVay arrived in 2017, the Rams have made the playoffs six of eight seasons and had a winning season seven times. In addition, Los Angeles has had a top-10 scoring offense in half of those eight seasons.
The 2024 Rams only finished 20th in scoring offense, but PFN’s Offense+ metric suggests they performed at a higher level than that. Los Angeles ranked 11th overall with a 79.5 (C+) grade in that metric. Since Stafford arrived in Los Angeles in 2021, the Rams have ranked sixth, seventh, and 11th in Offense+ during the quarterback’s healthy seasons (they were 25th in 2022 when Stafford only played nine games).
Why Stafford Could Retire
While Stafford’s production was largely solid, some indicators suggest he could be on the decline. PFN’s QB+ metric gave Stafford a 71.9 (C-) grade, which ranked 22nd this season. That was his second-lowest since the metric began in 2019, behind his injury-shortened 2022 season (64.6). Since leading the NFL in QB+ in 2021, Stafford has not cracked the top 10.
Matthew Stafford QB+ by Season With Rams
- 2021: 93.4 (A), 1st
- 2022: 64.6 (D), 26th
- 2023: 79.4 (C+), 14th
- 2024: 71.9 (C-), 22nd
Overall, Stafford’s production since the Super Bowl-winning season has mostly hovered around league average. From 2022-24, he ranks 16th in EPA per dropback (0.06) and 12th in success rate (48%). Even if you just look at the last two seasons to exclude his injury-shortened 2022 season, Stafford ranks 13th in EPA per dropback (0.09) and 13th in success rate (48.3%) from 2023-24.
Wide receiver injuries didn’t help, but Stafford wasn’t nearly as effective generating big plays. Only 13.2% of his completions went for 20+ yards in 2024, down from 19.0% in 2023. He was also less effective throwing deep. Stafford’s completion percentage on 20+ air-yard throws dipped from 47% in 2023 to 42% this past season.
Stafford’s biggest area of concern is one that reflects his age and lack of mobility. When pressured, Stafford averaged -0.46 EPA per dropback, which ranked 28th out of 36 players. He was still effective when kept clean, ranking seventh in EPA per dropback when kept clean (0.31). However, that means that Stafford suffered the third-largest decline in EPA per dropback when pressured, behind only Joe Flacco and Jalen Hurts.
As he ages, Stafford is increasingly reliant on his offensive line. He scrambled only 1.2% of the time when pressured this season, the lowest rate of any qualifying quarterback.
The Rams were a roughly average offensive line in pass protection. Los Angeles was the 13th-ranked unit in PFN’s offensive line rankings this regular season. The Rams allowed the ninth-lowest non-blitz pressure rate (29.7%), but some of that was due to Stafford getting the ball out quickly. By ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate metric, the Rams were the 20th-ranked team in pass protection.
Left tackle Alaric Jackson and versatile backup Joseph Noteboom are both free agents. While the Rams certainly have the salary cap space to hang on to Jackson in particular, any further defections or a lack of improvement along the line could magnify Stafford’s injury risk.
