The 2023 NFL Draft will kick off Thursday night, with the Carolina Panthers holding the No. 1 overall pick. While the NFL universe expects the Panthers to take Alabama quarterback Bryce Young with their selection, the betting market and public have moved on to what will happen next. Picking No. 2 overall, the Houston Texans will control how the rest of the draft shakes out.
We’re breaking down the latest news and rumors, including why Kentucky quarterback Will Levis has moved into the favorite status to be taken No. 2 overall. Buckle in as we prepare for an unpredictable draft.
Will Levis NFL Draft News And Rumors
The most recent NFL draft buzz has bucked what we thought we knew about this quarterback class. At the beginning of the month, PFN Mock Draft Simulator users believed Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud was set to go No. 1. Instead, Young has vaulted to the massive favorite, and the Texans have “soured” on Stroud.
More reporting has come out that Houston isn’t interested in Stroud, including ESPN’s Todd McShay sharing he’s continued to hear he won’t be the pick. With Young and Stroud out of the equation, that leaves the Texans to select either Levis or Florida’s Anthony Richardson at No. 2, or take a defender.
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The betting market was uncertain until this past weekend. Texas Tech edge rusher Tyree Wilson and Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr. were atop draft prop odds for the No. 2 pick. Then, according to BetMGM senior trader Cameron Drucker, “A known sharp group was playing Will Levis to go No. 2” (H/T to Patrick Everson of Vegas Insider).
The sharps caused Levis to jump from +250 to be the second choice to the favorite at -145 value. In turn, Wilson dropped to +250 and Anderson to +400. Notably, Stroud is at +500, and Richardson plummeted to +2000.
Other books followed after BetMGM updated their odds, and expectations have completely shifted after the money left BetMGM with a sizable liability if Levis goes No. 2.
The Texans or Colts Could Draft Will Levis
The beauty of NFL Draft props is you don’t have to bet on a single team taking a specific player. Sometimes those pairings are offered, but usually, there are draft position odds and then specific draft slot odds for players. Levis doesn’t have an over/under listed but does have slot odds.
Not only is Levis the favorite to go No. 2 overall, but he’s also the favorite to go No. 4. Though he can’t be drafted twice, oddsmakers are hedging that if Levis isn’t the pick to Houston or the Texans don’t trade out, Levis will fall no farther than the Colts at No. 4. ESPN’s Matt Miller recently echoed this, saying he’s been told, “The Colts want Levis.”
There hasn’t been the same buzz around the Texans and Levis. Instead, we’ve heard the Texans are “not scared” to pass on a quarterback at No. 2, insinuating they could take one at No. 12 or not at all. For as much as this might take the air out of a fanbase excited to welcome new head coach DeMeco Ryans, forcing a quarterback selection isn’t wise if the team isn’t in love with one.
The same can’t be said for the Colts. They seem to love Levis, and Houston might be goading them into a trade-up. Though top-10 trades have been rare in the last decade, the Titans are looming as another AFC South team interested in Levis.
A move from No. 4 to No. 2 might cost about the same as when the Chicago Bears moved up from No. 3 to No. 2 in 2017 to select Mitchell Trubisky. In that deal, San Francisco netted the third pick, 67th pick, and 111th pick.
Where Will Levis Is Landing in Mock Drafts
The shocking aspect of Levis’ surge is the timing of it all. If anything, he was falling in the eyes of the public and media. Of the most recent three mock drafts by PFN analysts, I had the Titans landing Levis at No. 11, Adam Caplan had Levis falling to 19th, and Tommy Garrett had the Texans moving up from 12th to 10th to get Levis.
Some of the speculation certainly comes from our own independent evaluations of Levis as a prospect and where he fits best.
I found Levis to be a solid passer while under pressure, showing good accuracy and decision-making despite his reputation being less than stellar. However, I also struggle to see a star-caliber playmaker at the position, and I don’t give first-round grades to quarterbacks who don’t have a path to becoming a top-eight NFL starter.
MORE: Do Will Levis Comps to Ryan Tannehill, Jay Cutler, and Josh Allen Make Sense?
It’s possible Levis can be better than what similar prospects became, including Ryan Tannehill and Derek Carr, but that’s a big risk with a top-four selection.
That risk has thus far paid off for the Los Angeles Chargers with Justin Herbert. Herbert was strikingly similar to Levis in his senior season when his coaching staff stripped his responsibilities down. Upon reaching the NFL, Herbert has proven to be more of a playmaker and was being held back by his supporting cast more than what we knew.
Now, it’s doubtful we’ll see Levis projected to land anywhere but in the second or fourth overall spots. We may not get further clarification until each pick is announced, so embrace the final hours of fun coming.