Ever since his 2019 MVP campaign, Jackson has been unable to get close to those numbers. In each of the past two seasons, he missed the final five games due to injury. Can Jackson stay healthy and put together a bounce-back campaign for fantasy football this season?
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Is Lamar Jackson Still Elite?
NFL fans will continue to debate whether Jackson is an upper-echelon real-life quarterback. In fantasy football, though, we can just look at the numbers.
In 2019, Jackson averaged 28.2 fantasy points per game. He was the overall QB1, and it wasn’t close, with the QB2 averaging 5.9 ppg fewer than him. So, how did Jackson do it?
Well, he just had an outlier season. Jackson threw for 3,127 yards, ran for 1,213 yards, and scored 43 total touchdowns. All of those remain his career-highs. Since then, Jackson has merely been good.
While Jackson has never averaged fewer than 20 ppg, his ppg has dropped every season since. He averaged 22.8 ppg in 2020, 21.1 in 2021, and 20.3 last season.
Jackson has still never finished lower than QB8, establishing his high floor. But fantasy managers are not drafting Jackson for his floor — we want the ceiling he displayed in 2019. Of course, no one is expecting 2019 all over again, but those drafting him are hoping for 23-25 ppg.
Last season was … interesting. From Weeks 1-3, Jackson was the overall QB1, averaging 34.8 ppg. From Weeks 4-12, Jackson averaged just 17.2 ppg, well below his career averages. He then got hurt in Week 13, ending his season.
So, what exactly happened? Well, for starters, the Ravens didn’t have particularly good wide receivers. They entered the season with Devin Duvernay as the WR2 behind Rashod Bateman. That’s just not a winning formula.
Then, Bateman got hurt after six games. Jackson’s averages with (26.6. ppg) and without (17.0) Bateman are stark.
Jackson still averaged 0.69 fantasy points per dropback, the third-most in the league. He also remains the league’s most lethal rushing quarterback.
The primary issues for Jackson have been a weak supporting cast, injuries, and an uncreative offense. We have reason to believe all three of those things should be remedied for the upcoming season.
The Baltimore Ravens Made Sweeping Offensive Changes
I would argue the Ravens’ 2023 group of pass catchers is the most formidable group in the history of the franchise. They may not have any one player better than Anquan Boldin or Steve Smith, but as a group, this is the first time they’ve had four legitimate starting-caliber pass catchers.
Mark Andrews is a top-three tight end and remains Jackson’s top target. Bateman returns as the presumptive WR1. The biggest changes are in the WR2 and WR3. The Ravens signed Odell Beckham Jr. and spent a first-round pick on Zay Flowers.
They also signed Nelson Agholor and have Duvernay returning. Those two can now operate in WR4 and WR5 roles. Not only will the Ravens have a better WR4 and WR5 than most NFL teams, but if a starter were to get hurt, they have capable backups.
Equally as important is the Ravens’ decision to part ways with Greg Roman and replace him with a more creative offensive mind in Todd Monken. Reports out of Ravens camp all suggest the offense will play faster and feature more passing.
While the Ravens will always remain relatively run-heavy due to having an elite mobile quarterback, they could stand to throw more in neutral game scripts than the 49% they did last season.
This team also averaged 30.4 seconds per snap in neutral game scripts, the slowest pace of play in the league. More passing, plus a quicker pace, means more total plays. That means more production. All of this bodes well for Jackson in 2023.
Should Fantasy Managers Target Lamar Jackson in 2023 Fantasy Drafts?
Ever since his 2019 breakout, Jackson had been viewed among the elite fantasy quarterbacks. He was right up there with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. After his disappointing 2021 campaign was mired by injury, fantasy managers gave Jackson a pass. His 2022 ADP remained relatively the same.
After a second disappointing campaign mired by injury, Jackson is no longer viewed as equal to Mahomes, Allen, and Jalen Hurts. He’s still being drafted as the QB4, but he goes at least a full round after the average of the big three.
Jackson’s ceiling hasn’t changed. And it’s not like his floor is incredibly low. At worst, you’re getting 20+ ppg. I believe fantasy managers are afraid he will get hurt. As per the excellent research done by Dr. Edwin Porras, there is no evidence that mobile quarterbacks get injured at a higher rate than pocket passers.
Jackson suffered a sprained ankle in 2021 and a sprained PCL in 2022. Those are random occurrences, and we have zero evidence of any increased risk. Prior to 2021, Jackson hadn’t missed a game due to injury in his career.
With the predictability of the quarterback position increasing and the prevalence of top-12 QBs coming from those drafted in the top 12, spending higher draft capital on a quarterback is more viable than ever.
With that said, the opportunity cost associated with spending a late-second or third-round pick on a signal-caller remains high. Those are still very valuable picks to take running backs and wide receivers.
Instead of taking one of the big three quarterbacks, wait a round or two, and consider Jackson. He has proven overall QB1 upside with a mid-QB1 floor. Don’t be jaded by Jackson burning fantasy managers the past two seasons. We have every reason to feel confident in a rebound year for one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in NFL history.
