Brian Daboll is 18-31-1 in three seasons with the New York Giants. A surprising first season led to a 9-7-1 record, playoff appearance, and Wild Card round win over the Vikings. He was also the 2022 AP NFL Coach of the Year.
However, this season, the Giants are 3-13, and his seat is certainly warm. Let’s examine the pros and cons of Daboll’s tenure and whether New York will make a coaching change.
What Went Wrong for Daboll?
Initial Game Planning
Generally speaking, the best teams in the NFL excel with the pre-game script and find success early on. This season, 10 of the top-11 teams in first-quarter point differential entered Week 18 are in the postseason or still alive in the playoff hunt.
During Daboll’s time with the Giants, New York was the worst team during the first 15 minutes, and it wasn’t close (outscored 254-100; no other team had a first-quarter point differential worse than -84 over that stretch). There are a lot of factors in play for a stat like that, but the head coach is ultimately responsible for his team’s readiness each week, and the Giants have posted a ‘D-’ grade in our Offense+ tracking system if you isolate only first quarters since the start of 2022.
Discipline and the Offensive Line
In this quarterback-driven league, step one is building an environment that gives the signal caller a chance, and that wasn’t the case with Daboll at the controls of this franchise. Over the past three seasons, no team has allowed pressure with more regularity than the G-men, which resulted in the second-highest sack rate.
Roster construction and scheming are two areas where Daboll was expected to help this organization emerge from a tough decade, but it simply didn’t happen.
Divisional Opponents
Almost everything changes year-over-year in the NFL. But every season, every team plays six divisional games (35.3% of their regular season). Success in these spots is non-negotiable for teams looking to get a postseason invite. Not only do these games help decide the divisional standings, but they also reflect the coaching matchups, as these teams are familiar with one another and require a level of attention to detail to succeed.
Since 2022, the Giants have ranked 30th in divisional win percentage (26.5%, 4-12-1). The strength of the NFC East is certainly a factor in that mark, but with three straight failures to cover the spread in such games, they’ve pretty clearly failed to live up to expectations in these important spots.
What Went Right for Daboll?
Possession Count
Daboll joined the Giants after four seasons as the offensive coordinator with the Buffalo Bills. His resume speaks for itself — only Kansas City scored on a higher percentage of its offensive drives than Buffalo from 2020-21.
While the talent level in New York City wasn’t nearly what it was in Upstate New York, Daboll, at the very least, was able to instill the value of taking care of the ball. During his time with the Giants, they ranked 13th in turnover differential and that was fueled by committing the seventh-fewest offensive turnovers.
He showed an ability to work with the hand he was dealt. Josh Allen was aggressive during Daboll’s time in Buffalo, and he had the talent to play like that. New York’s offense was bottom-five in average depth of throw during his three seasons in town, a design that gave this team a chance to succeed despite a talent deficiency.
Will Daboll Get Fired?
It was a magical first season in 2022 for Daboll and the Giants but absolutely nothing has gone right since.
Daboll, an offensive guy, failed to develop Daniel Jones or any other quarterback who has played for the Giants, didn’t properly use Saquon Barkley, and the offense has been among the worst in the league the last two seasons.
With a top-five pick, it may be time for a complete reset in East Rutherford. With that said, even if he is fired, Daboll likely wouldn’t be unemployed for long.