Will Fuller Free Agency: What kind of contract will Texans WR receive?

The most critical issue for the Houston Texans to resolve this NFL offseason is repairing their relationship with star quarterback Deshaun Watson, who is understandably upset with the franchise’s direction. However, the team, which has been hemorrhaging talent in recent seasons, might lose another valuable player. Will Fuller’s contract is up this offseason, and Houston needs to decide whether they want to re-sign him or let him test free agency.

Fuller’s statistics are impressive despite a lack of playing time

During his five years with the Texans, Fuller has produced solid statistics. 2020 was the best season of his career, totaling 879 yards and 8 touchdowns, both career-high totals. While those are excellent numbers for a backup wide receiver, they don’t seem to warrant the amount of attention that Will Fuller is earning this free agency period. However, many factors have limited his statistical production.

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Injuries and off-field issues have sidelined Fuller for numerous games during his time in Houston. He has also been forced into a backup role for most of his career. He sat behind DeAndre Hopkins for four years, and last season he competed with the often-underrated Brandin Cooks. Thanks to the combination of these factors, Fuller’s statistics don’t necessarily reflect his level of play. Therefore, we’ll need another statistic to measure his performance accurately.

The advanced metrics grade the Texans wide receiver highly

For players like Fuller, whose statistics have been hampered by factors outside of their control, the Offensive Value Metric (OVM) is a perfect tool. The OVM is a grading system created by the (Bx) Movement to measure players based solely on factors they had direct control over. It gives us a more nuanced view of their play.

The OVM has graded Fuller quite highly during his time in Houston. The chart below shows his grades from each season of his career.

Notably, in all five of his seasons, Fuller was the Texans’ highest-graded wide receiver. He was already the most influential player on the team at his position immediately upon entering the NFL. From there, he improved significantly as time went on. While his first two seasons were fairly average, his grade increased by almost 10 points in 2018. He has been contributing at a high level ever since.

Taking a closer look at Fuller’s advanced statistics from last season

When looking at his statistics, it is easy to see why Fuller earned a high OVM grade in 2020. He averaged an impressive 5.9 yards after the catch, 0.9 yards higher than expected. More importantly, his separation numbers were excellent.

He averaged a mediocre 3.0 yards of separation when thrown to, but he was only given 5.1 yards of cushion, tied for the sixth-lowest among all qualifying wide receivers. Put in simpler terms, Fuller created a solid amount of separation despite defenders giving him very little space when the ball was snapped.

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Put those factors together, and you have a player who can get himself open and create yards with the ball in his hands. That is a recipe for a great wide receiver.

Examining Will Fuller’s weekly grades from 2020

The chart below shows how Fuller’s OVM grades changed from week to week last season. The black dots represent his weekly grades. Meanwhile, the yellow line represents the regular season average OVM grade for qualifying wide receivers.

As you can see, most of Fuller’s grades were above the league average, often by a significant margin. There was a brief stretch around midseason during which he earned below-average grades, but only one of those was notably subpar. Overall, he consistently contributed throughout the season, although his suspension means his sample size is smaller than most other high-profile wide receivers.

Will Fuller’s injury history and recent suspension give the Texans good reason to consider not re-signing him

The traditional statistics and the advanced metrics agree that Fuller is an excellent receiver. However, there is one significant problem — he can’t seem to stay on the field. Fuller suffered an injury that caused him to miss playing time in every season of his career except for this most recent one. Unfortunately, a six-game suspension for violating the NFL’s PED policy meant that he was still unavailable for a large portion of the season.

Fuller is undoubtedly talented. But, to paraphrase a sentiment expressed by many NFL coaches and players: “the best ability is availability.” In other words, it doesn’t matter how good you are if you aren’t ready to go on game day. Will Fuller’s problems in this area will likely play a major role in what Houston decides to do with him during free agency.

Giving Will Fuller a new contract is risky, but it might be necessary

The Texans have a difficult choice to make this offseason. Based purely on talent, Fuller is one of the best wide receivers on the market. However, Will Fuller’s inconsistent availability means that any contract you give him will likely end up paying for less than a full season of play.

That said, they might not actually have a choice in the matter. Star quarterback Deshaun Watson has said that he would like to keep Fuller in Houston. If giving Fuller a new contract would help repair the Texans’ relationship with their disgruntled quarterback, they should do so despite the risks.

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On the other hand, if Watson’s situation is hopeless, then letting Fuller go makes more sense. Giving a large contract to a player who isn’t always available might not be the right move for a team in rebuilding mode. It might be more sensible to let him go and focus on the many other problems currently plaguing the franchise.

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