Will Fuller’s career has been one of much frustration for fantasy football managers. While the hope is that whatever has led to Fuller’s absence through “personal reasons” is resolved soon, it has dealt yet another blow to his fantasy outlook for 2021. Let’s take a look at what we can expect from Fuller this season from a fantasy perspective.
Will Fuller’s fantasy outlook for 2021
With uncertainty over when he will return to the team, Fuller’s fantasy outlook is hard to fully judge. However, we can look at his potential within this Miami offense when he’s on the field. The problem for Fuller is that he no longer has Deshaun Watson throwing him the ball.
Watson has been one of the best deep ball QB since he entered the league, and it was a perfect mesh with Fuller’s 14.4 aDOT (average depth of target). In 20 games without Watson, Fuller has averaged 6.0 targets, 3.1 receptions, 38.7 yards, and 0.10 touchdowns per game. Yet, with Watson, he’s recorded 6.5 targets, 4.5 receptions, 70.6 yards, and 0.67 touchdowns.
Fuller’s success will depend on Tua becoming more aggressive and willing to take shots down the field, something we did not see as often in 2020 (7.2 average throw depth – 42nd in NFL). Only 10% of Tua’s throws were beyond 20+ yards downfield (23rd), and on those throws, he had a 76.7 passer rating (25th).
We have already seen similar concerns regarding the aggressiveness of this offense in Week 1 against the Patriots. Tua was rarely asked to push the ball vertically. Of all the receivers on this roster, Fuller would be one of the most affected by the lack of aggressive intent.
Speed could change the offensive approach
However, in Fuller, the Dolphins have a receiver who has proven he can separate down the field. That is not something we have seen from the likes of DeVante Parker and Preston Williams in their careers. Waddle should be capable of the same elements as Fuller, but as a rookie, the Dolphins may not look to use him that way.
The concern for Fuller will be his target share. With Waddle, Parker, and RB Myles Gaskin seeing targets, the opportunities could be reduced. Fuller’s promising 2020 season came with a 20.1% target share. It is tough to see him getting that regularly in this offense. He may have to succeed with closer to 4-5 targets per game than the 6-7 he saw last year.
Should you move on from Fuller in your fantasy leagues?
The ugly side of Fuller’s fantasy outlook is the constant threat of missed time. The talent notwithstanding, Fuller has career finishes of WR65, WR61, W69, WR53, and WR32, despite averaging 13.0 points per game.
When on the field, Fuller could have WR2 upside in 2021, but he is more likely to finish as a WR3/4 in total points while frustrating you along the way.
Right now, the best approach is to exercise patience. Dropping Fuller now would likely bring back a player of lesser potential in return. Saying that, if you need the roster spot for Week 2 or 3, the uncertainty over his timetable could leave you with little choice.
In terms of a trade, the value will be meager in redraft formats. If you can afford to wait, a better time to do so would be when we hear Fuller is returning to the Dolphins. At that point, his potential when he gets onto the field could lead a desperate team to offer up a reliable contributor in return.