After eight years with the Tennessee Titans, Derrick Henry said his goodbyes following the last game of the 2023 season. We now know where he will continue his career. Henry will be joining the Baltimore Ravens for the next two years. After falling off considerably last season, could we see Henry return to being a top-five RB in fantasy football this year?
What Is the Fantasy Impact of Derrick Henry Signing With the Baltimore Ravens?
Last season, Raheem Mostert and Latavius Murray were the only running backs in the NFL over 30 years old to even play meaningful snaps. Mostert was the only starter. Depending on what happens with Mostert, the only 30+ RB this year to start may be Henry.
In the 1990s and 2000s, we saw running backs remain effective into their early 30s. Over the past decade-plus, that hasn’t really been the case. Of course, Henry isn’t like most running backs. If anyone can do it at a high level, it’s him.
Derrick Henry’s time in Tennessee ends after eight years:
🏈Over 2,000 carries
🏈9,502 rushing yards
🏈90 rushing TDs
🏈Offensive Player of the Year (2020)
🏈4x Pro Bowler
🏈2x NFL rushing yards leader
🏈2x NFL rushing TDs leader
🏈Tied NFL record with 6 games of 200+ yards. https://t.co/L27KgiC4St— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 12, 2024
The Ravens’ signing of Henry harkens back to 2019. In 2018, a running back by the name of Mark Ingram was coming off four consecutive RB1 finishes. But in that season, his usage declined with the emergence of a young Alvin Kamara. He averaged 11.9 fantasy points per game, a 5.5 points per game drop from the previous year.
Looking to be in decline, the Saints parted ways with Ingram. At 30 years old, he latched on to the Ravens. All Ingram did was average 15.9 fantasy points per game, finishing inside the top 12 running backs.
Here we are again five years later. Henry had been a top-five running back every year from 2019-2022, averaging no fewer than 18.9 fantasy points per game. Then, in 2023, he appeared to fall off.
Last season, Henry averaged 14.5 points per game, a 4.4 points per game drop from the previous year. The Titans opted to move on, and at age 30, Henry latched on with the Ravens. Sound familiar?
There’s a justified stigma against old running backs. They are rarely productive. But there have also seldom been few RBs who make it to age 30 while remaining in the NFL. There’s a reason Henry is about to do it — he’s an outlier and one we should be willing to bank on.
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The Henry-Ingram parallels are real. For fantasy purposes, this looks like the same situation, except consider Henry a much better version of Ingram. Given Henry the same bump Ingram got when he joined the Ravens, we’re looking at around 18.5 fantasy points per game.
Whether that’s good enough for a top-five finish will depend on what the rest of the league’s top-backs do. Regardless, fantasy managers won’t be complaining.
The Ravens’ offense under Lamar Jackson has always been conducive to rushing production. The problem has been the Ravens’ backs always seem to get hurt.
Outside of a broken foot in 2021, Henry hasn’t missed a game due to injury since his rookie year. Yes, he’s now 30 years old, but he didn’t show any durability issues last season.
If Henry plays 17 games, it’s hard to imagine him not scoring at least 15 touchdowns. Gus Edwards scored 13 times last year, and he is not close to the talent Henry is. With the Ravens not wanting to subject Jackson to unnecessary hits, Henry is going to get multiple opportunities every time the Ravens get inside the 5-yard line.
The only criticism that should levied Henry’s way is the lack of receiving work. Jackson already doesn’t throw to running backs often. That means Henry will be entirely reliant on rushing and touchdowns. Fortunately, there should be plenty of those.
Is there a more dangerous backfield in the #NFL? 🤯#RavensFlock https://t.co/SMRGyyoH06 pic.twitter.com/c50de5B92a
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) March 12, 2024
There’s always a chance Henry can completely fall off a cliff. That’s a risk with any running back after age 27. After all, Henry’s yards per carry has decreased each of the past three seasons.
With that said, I attribute Henry’s decline in efficiency more to the Titans’ offense than Henry’s eroding abilities. 5.7% of Henry’s carries went for 15+ yards last season. That was the eighth-most in the league. I think he’s still got it.
So, will Henry end up as a top-five back? Probably not. But will he return to being an RB1 this season? My money would be on yes.
Keaton Mitchell Will Have To Wait His Turn
I really liked what Keaton Mitchell showed as a rookie last season. He only handled 47 carries, but 8.4 yards per attempt is nothing to scoff at
At 179 pounds, Mitchell is never going to be a feature back. He will always be part of a committee. But there’s a difference between being part of a two-man timeshare and being in a backfield with Derrick Henry.
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Mitchell is a talented player, but he will not have any fantasy value this season as long as Henry is healthy. Plus, Mitchell himself is coming off a torn ACL and is no guarantee to be ready for Week 1.
There may be a time down the road when Mitchell is a viable fantasy RB2. But barring something unforeseen, it’s not going to happen in 2024.
