Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy has been on the hot seat for quite some time, but it’s been particularly toasty this season.
McCarthy is 49-34 in five seasons with the Cowboys. Dallas went 12-5 in McCarthy’s second, third, and fourth seasons but earned no more than one playoff win in those three appearances. This year, the team is 7-9 after failing to live up to preseason expectations.
Now, McCarthy’s contract is expiring. Let’s examine the pros and cons of McCarthy’s tenure and whether his deal will be renewed.
What Went Wrong for McCarthy?
Penalty Prone
It’s hard enough to get opposing offenses off the field in today’s game and even harder when you give away yardage. This season, only three teams have committed more penalties than the Cowboys.
If this was a one-year issue, it could be overlooked, but that’s not the case. Dallas was whistled for the eight fewest penalties per game in the three seasons prior to McCarthy’s arrival, but during his five seasons, they averaged a league-high 6.7 infractions per game.
Bending and Breaking
Twice during the McCarthy era, Dallas posted a bottom-10 Defense+ grade from our custom metric, and the inability to force teams to settle has been the culprit this season (27th in red zone defensive efficiency).
If you look over the past two seasons, the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens are both top-four red zone defenses and both rank among the top-four in win percentage. This league rewards offense in a major way, thus putting an extreme level of importance on a team’s ability to hold their opponent to field goal attempts, something that was a clear weakness during McCarthy’s final season at the helm in Dallas.
Results
This is a results-driven business, especially when playing for a marquee franchise. The Cowboys finished with a losing record just once in nine seasons prior to bringing in McCarthy (who had eight double-digit win seasons with the Packers), but they have had two such seasons in five years since making the move. The three 12-win seasons in the middle of those disappointing seasons are what this franchise expects, making the valleys more notable than the peaks.
What Went Right for McCarthy?
White Knuckle Wins
The NFL is a game of inches, and during the McCarthy era, the Cowboys were capable of playing those tight spots. Since 2020, Dallas ranks fifth in winning percentage in one-score games (record: 22-15). Those regular season numbers didn’t carry over to the postseason (0-2 in one-score games).
Still, it fueled their ability to qualify for three postseasons under McCarthy, and if you look at the teams that are in the market for a head coach, they are a few coin-flip wins away from being much more competitive.
Here are some examples of underachieving 2024 teams that could have had a very different story this season if they performed better in these one-score contests:
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 3-9
- Chicago Bears: 2-7
- New York Giants: 1-7
Money Time
With the margins so thin, winning the final 15 minutes can often shift the fortunes of a team in any given season. During McCarthy’s tenure in Dallas, the Cowboys have posted the third-best fourth-quarter point differential (+156).
The teams that end the game strong are often those who have great attention to detail and excel at adjusting as the game goes on. Those are traits any team would love to have and something that McCarthy’s teams have done consistently (the Packers also ranked eighth during his time in town).
Will McCarthy Be Back?
While Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has made some positive comments about McCarthy recently, it remains to be seen if he will be back next season.
It’s worth noting that McCarthy’s contract is expiring, so he won’t have to be fired — Dallas could simply choose not to renew his deal.
It’s possible that the Cowboys’ late-season success will allow McCarthy to keep his job, especially considering he’s won 36 games over the previous three seasons and superstars like Dak Prescott and Micah Parsons are advocating for him to stay.
Also, McCarthy is a Super Bowl-winning coach who has the 13th-most wins of any head coach in NFL history. While the playoff losses look bad, there’s a case to be made that McCarthy isn’t the main reason for the Cowboys’ woes.