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    Will the Buccaneers Fire Todd Bowles? Examining Whether Tampa Bay Will Make a Coaching Change

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    Is Todd Bowles on the hot seat in Tampa Bay? Would Bucs GM Jason Licht move on from Bowles to promote OC Liam Coen to head coach?

    The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 9-7 and will capture the NFC South title for a fourth straight year with a win over the New Orleans Saints on Sunday.

    However, Bowles is now 26-24 in three seasons as Bucs head coach, and his defense has struggled mightily this season. The team’s success in 2024 has largely been due to Bucs OC Liam Coen’s terrific offense. As a result, Coen is receiving plenty of head-coaching buzz.

    Would general manager Jason Licht let go of Bowles to promote Coen to head coach?

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    What Went Wrong for Bowles?

    Lack of Takeaways

    Bowles’ defenses are typically known for creating a lot of takeaways, but that hasn’t been the case this season.

    The Bucs have just 18 takeaways entering Week 18. Unless they get two takeaways against the Saints, this will set a new low for a Bowles-led Bucs defense (as head coach or defensive coordinator), as the previous low under Bowles was 20.

    The Bucs have only seven interceptions this season, which would be a new franchise low. The previous franchise low was nine (set in 1976, 1993, 1994, and 2018).

    Late Season Inconsistencies

    The Buccaneers lost to the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys in Week 16, a game that could have made Week 18 meaningless. They allowed 7.9 yards per attempt to a compromised passing game and couldn’t get out of their own way (six penalties, 100% conversion rate allowed in the red zone).

    If the Bucs lose in Week 18 to the depleted New Orleans Saints (who will be missing Derek Carr, Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara, Rashid Shaheed, Taysom Hill, Kendre Miller, and others), that will be a disaster that causes Bowles’ seat to get very hot.

    What Went Right for Bowles?

    The Passing Game

    The Baker Mayfield revival is credited in part to Bowles and it has fueled this team’s ranking seventh in pass EPA during his three seasons.

    Bowles was a safety as a player, and his NFL resume is on the defensive side of the ball, but his offenses have shown consistency and trust — marks of a team that can exceed expectations in today’s NFL. However, Coen likely deserves the bulk of the credit for the offense’s excellent play.

    Clutch Time

    Tied to the success of his passing games has been a rock-solid showing in the final 15 minutes of games. During his three seasons in Tampa Bay, Bowles’ Bucs ranked second in fourth-quarter point differential.

    We saw this team score on three possessions against the Carolina Panthers (Week 13) to help them save a must-have game in a contest in which they had nothing going prior.

    Strong Culture

    Bowles’ players love him and the Bucs have created a really strong, team-first culture.

    Every offseason, players want to stay in Tampa Bay and even sometimes take less money to do so, which is a testament to what Bowles and Licht have built.

    Will Bowles Get Fired?

    If the Buccaneers win the NFC South once again, Bowles’ job is likely safe. It helps that he was the defensive coordinator for Tampa Bay from 2019-2021, including the 2020 Super Bowl championship season. But if the Bucs lose to the Saints, a change could be coming.

    Coen has done an incredible job with the Bucs’ offense, and one has to wonder if Licht would do whatever is necessary to keep the 39-year-old offensive mastermind in Tampa Bay, even if that means firing Bowles. Under Coen, Tampa Bay’s offense has thrived:

    • Third Down Conversion Rate: T-1st (Chiefs)
    • Passing Touchdowns Per Game: T-2nd (Lions and Ravens)
    • Passing Yards Per Game: 3rd
    • Rushing Yards Per Attempt: 3rd
    • Rushing Yards Per Game: 4th
    • Red Zone Efficiency: T-4th (Bengals)
    • Points Per Drive: 4th
    • Points Per Game: 4th

    When Coen took over the job, the Bucs had the worst rushing attack in the NFL, and he stressed that fixing this unit was his top priority. Coen has done just that, turning this into a top-five rushing attack. Drafting Bucky Irving certainly helped, but Coen deserves credit for his creativity and unpredictable play-calling. He sometimes plays multiple backs at the same time and uses fake handoffs and misdirections to keep the defense guessing.

    The passing attack has been incredible as well, and Baker Mayfield has already recorded career-highs in passing yards (4,279), passing touchdowns (39), completion percentage (71.7%), rushing touchdowns (three), and rushing yards (310).

    Even when key pieces like Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Tristan Wirfs, Luke Goedeke, Jalen McMillan, Rachaad White, and Cade Otton got hurt, the offense hasn’t missed a beat.

    It’s only a matter of time until Coen becomes a head coach in the NFL; it remains to be seen if it will be in Tampa Bay or somewhere else. If Licht opts to stick with Bowles, the Bucs will have to find their fourth OC in four seasons.

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