Kevin Stefanski is 40-42 in five seasons with the Cleveland Browns, including two postseason appearances. Stefanski was named the AP NFL Coach of the Year following the 2020 and 2023 seasons. However, the Browns are 3-13 this season.
With Stefanski on the hot seat, let’s examine whether Cleveland will make a coaching change or give him more time to right the ship.
What Went Wrong for Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland?
Right Side of Variance
The record from 2020 looks great. After a 2019 season in which the Browns won just six games under Freddie Kitchens, Stefanski guided this team to 11 wins, a run that included multiple four-game win streaks.
But the lows were low.
They had a pair of no-shows in the division, something that most playoff teams don’t have, and that resulted in the second-worst point differential all-time for an 11-win team in NFL history (-11; only the 2012 Indianapolis Colts had a lower mark). Losses to the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers aren’t bad results, but a 76-13 score when playing those teams on the road is emblematic of a tough-to-gauge team more than a true contender.
Game Deciding Spots
Well-coached teams typically find a way to move the chains on offense and hold teams out of the end zone on defense — two major flaws during the Stefanski era.
Third Down Conversion Rates
2020: 44.9%
2021: 39.2%
2022: 38.1%
2023: 31.6%
2024: 29.3%
That’s difficult to overlook, especially from a coach whose resume suggests that he is an offensive mind. Those last two seasons in Cleveland were two of the seven worst showings league-wide over his span as a head coach. Their offense has been unable to stay on the field, and their defense has been unable to make a stand when needed most.
Since 2020, the Browns rank 29th in red zone defense, allowing a touchdown on 62.2% of opponent drives that breach their 20-yard line (NFL average: 57.7%).
The strong defensive scoring metrics are nice, but for a team to take that next step and have postseason success, the need to force field goal attempts when pressed has proven critical (the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, and Minnesota Vikings have all overachieved this year based on preseason expectations and they all rank in the 80th percentile in red zone defense).
What Went Right for Stefanski?
Resume
There is no denying that, when you take a step back, Stefanski’s resume with Cleveland has had some very high points. He took the franchise to the postseason twice, which is even more impressive when you consider he was hired to solve a 17-year drought. That success earned him a pair of Coach of the Year honors (2020 and 2023, one of 12 coaches in the history of the sport with multiple COY trophies on their mantle).
The 2020 team won a road playoff game before falling in Arrowhead, a game in which they had the ball in a five-point game with five minutes to go, while the 2023 team was one-and-done in the postseason without their starting QB.
Heck, even in a lost 2024 season where the QB play and attention to detail on the defensive end were inconsistent, his Browns had home wins over the Ravens and Steelers while battling with the Cincinnati Bengals twice and losing in Philadelphia by just four points in a game that was tight from start to finish.
Defense
Even in a down 2024, his team fought on the defensive end (10th in points per drive). Over his tenure as a whole, the Browns have ranked 12th in that metric.
The consistency on the defensive end is impressive from a former quarterback who, prior to joining Cleveland, was involved exclusively on the offensive end during 14 seasons on Minnesota’s staff.
Whether Stefanski is a savvy defensive mind or excels at insulating himself with talented people he trusts, his run in Cleveland has been impressive on that side of the ball. This can be appealing for a team with a high pick that anticipates bringing in a franchise-level quarterback this offseason.
Will Stefanski Be Fired?
It’s unclear how much blame Stefanski deserves for the Browns’ horrendous 2024 season. He did take a franchise that was dead and out and got them to two postseason appearances and prior to 2024, his worst record was 7-10.
Having your franchise QB, who the organization planned everything around, play 19 games over three seasons has not helped. Also, when Deshaun Watson has played, he’s been pretty dreadful.
It’s possible Stefanski will keep his job and get at least one more season to turn things around.