It’s Week 18, and for fantasy football leagues that are still playing, it means you’re playing for the championship title. You either win, or you don’t — it’s as simple as that.
There are always plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant wide receiver in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 18 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Adam Thielen, WR | CAR (at ATL)
The Adam Thielen experience has been unique over the past two seasons, as it has featured two hot streaks (11 games) and below-average production otherwise (16 games):
- Hot streaks: 21.4 PPG, 25.5% over expectation
- Otherwise: 8.4 PPG, 9.9% below expectation
The Panthers are going to compete in this game and they might cover, but what motivation do they have to weigh down their veteran receiver with usage?
None.
That doesn’t mean they won’t, NFL teams baffle me with their decision-making weekly. However, it does mean we have to tread lightly, as Jalen Coker is a rookie who could use these reps a lot more.
This offense looked different back in Week 6, but Andy Dalton fed Diontae Johnson 27% of the targets, and he turned them into nearly 20 PPR points. That slot role is likely to hold value, and while I have Thielen as the favorite to earn most of that work, I’m not overly confident in the exact rate.
He currently sits as my WR29 this week and is a player I’d rather roll the dice on than a veteran like Calvin Ridley, who doesn’t have a rookie QB to work on developing.
A.J. Brown, WR | PHI (vs. NYG)
Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM
Brown is inactive for today's game as the Eagles are resting starters.
A.J. Brown has caught a touchdown pass in three straight games, and it’s become clear that this team is willing to take its chances with weighing their WR1 down with targets.
Wise move.
I like what that means for their potential to push for an NFC crown, but that means getting to the postseason in one piece. With Week 18 meaning nothing to their standing, I’d be shocked if we got much more than a cameo from Brown on Sunday.
If you’re hellbent on targeting the Giants’ defense, Jahan Dotson is the WR3 in this offense, and Kenneth Gainwell has shown savvy in the passing game. It’s very possible that an Eagle or two got you to this point in your playoff bracket, but I find it unlikely that any of them attached to the passing game make an impact this week.
Alec Pierce, WR | IND (vs. JAX)
Alec Pierce turned three targets into a cool 134 yards and a touchdown against the Jaguars back in Week 5, so that’s fun.
Projecting a stat line like that is irresponsible, but suggesting that Pierce could be a Flex option isn’t. Joe Flacco supported a 25% on-field target share for him last week (his second-highest mark of the season), and if you’re telling me that we get usage like that this week, I’ll be all the way in.
Jaguars vs. deep passes, 2024:
- 28th in TD%
- 30th in CMP%
- 31st in YPA
- 32nd in passer rating
Pierce has 10 games north of 80 air yards this season, and that’s reason enough to gamble on him in a spot like this if you’re an underdog. There’s an obvious risk that comes with Pierce, starting with him being their third-best target earner. But if you’re willing to take on a low floor, the upside case is appealing.
Amari Cooper, WR | BUF (at NE)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 5
Cooper is inactive for today's game.
Amari Cooper has played eight games this season with the Bills and six with the Browns — he’s run 89 more routes with Cleveland than Buffalo.
I have zero experience in NFL front offices, but given the low usage by a handful of Super Bowl contenders of the pass catchers they acquired around the trade deadline, I can’t help but think that we will be getting an unleashing of some sort during the playoffs.
But if Buffalo has slow-played things up to this point, why would they show any of their cards in a game that has no long-term meaning on anything?
Cooper’s 30-yard touchdown last week was a thing of beauty and has me more interested in his playoff fantasy stock than anything we see this week in what more than likely will be a brief outing.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | DET (vs. MIN)
It’s easy to forget that Amon-Ra St. Brown opened this season with consecutive scoreless efforts as it feels like he scores every week.
He has 12 in 14 games since that start to the season, and his route-running precision makes him a near-impossible guard in this creative system that positions him away from bulk defenders. Even with Jameson Williams emerging and Sam LaPorta getting his groove back, St. Brown is St. Brown-ing (36 targets over the past three weeks with a touchdown in all three contests).
The blitz-happy Vikings might actually project well for the role that St. Brown fills. We saw it in Week 7 (32% target share, 25.2 PPR points), and if Minnesota is going to throw exotic mixes at Jared Goff, he’s just more likely to hone in on his star receiver who always appears to be open.
The Packers had success through the air when they finally got aggressive against the Vikings last week, and Dan Campbell has this unit, this team, this city on full-go aggression mode 24/7.
St. Brown could be the top point scorer of the week and deserves to be one of the first players off of draft boards next season.
Brandin Cooks, WR | DAL (vs. WAS)
Brandin Cooks saw a season-high eight targets last week and that was enough to get him to 52 yards. Dallas is paying him a whole bunch of money to do very little, so if a little season-ending stat padding helps make their investment look better, I’m happy for them.
For our purposes, I’m not the least bit tempted to bite. Jalen Tolbert is getting what few high-value targets are generated by this offense, and I’m just not sure that Cooks is capable of producing at a viable level anymore.
The veteran wideout is under one yard per route run this season and doesn’t have a grab gaining more than 30 yards since Thanksgiving — of last season. If you want to bet on Cooper Rush (what a sentence), Tolbert or the tight ends is the way to do it.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR | JAX (at IND)
Since 2020, three times has a rookie receiver posted consecutive games with 85 receiving yards and a touchdown catch:
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (2021)
- Brian Thomas Jr. (Weeks 15-17)
- Brian Thomas Jr. (Weeks 4-5)
BTJ is the only receiver in NFL history with two such streaks as a rookie. If he can post a fourth straight game in Week 18, he’ll join Randy Moss (1998), St. Brown (2021), and Odell Beckham Jr. (2014) as the only players to accomplish that feat.
This kid is special, and we are seeing signs of it, even though it’s a mess of a season in Jacksonville. He burned these Colts for an 85-yard score in Week 5, and while Trevor Lawrence got him that pass, it’s not as if Lawrence was playing at a high level.
The only reservations you should have here should center around Mac Jones — that is plenty reasonable. I mean, the man is 2-of-21 on passes thrown over 20 yards downfield. I get it.
That said, the risk is worth it. Thomas is a rare talent, and the Colts’ run defense has actually been strong for the most part after an awful start to the season. I think we get 8-10 targets here, and that’s enough usage to justify the quality of throw concerns in Jacksonville.
Calvin Ridley, WR | TEN (vs. HOU)
Calvin Ridley has been a more stable option this season than I would have ever given him credit for entering the year (eight top-30 finishes), but the low-ceiling portion of things I got right.
Ridley has just one game with 95+ receiving yards, and his 53% catch rate highlights all of the issues we had entering this season. I’m not banking on much scoring equity, but he gave us 14.3 PPR points in the Week 12 meeting. That is roughly in line with what I believe you can expect on Sunday.
That was a Will Levis game, but the Levis/Mason Rudolph stat lines this season are essentially a recreation of the Spiderman meme.
- Levis: 63.7% completion rate, 6.7 yards per attempt, and 1.0 TD/INT
- Rudolph: 63.5% completion rate, 6.7 yards per attempt, and 1.0 TD/INT
I’d caution against using your valuable time to watch the Titans play football, but sliding Ridley in as a low-end WR2 is perfectly reasonable.
CeeDee Lamb, WR | DAL (vs. WAS)
The Cowboys announced before Week 17 kicked off that the additional exams they performed on CeeDee Lamb’s ailing shoulder revealed enough damage for them to end his season two weeks early. We’ve known for a while that the alpha receiver was working through various injuries, and with the team officially out of the hunt, this decision seemed more inevitable than anything.
Among qualified receivers through 16 weeks, Lamb ranked third in expected PPR points per game this season while assuming the fifth-highest on-field target share.
We’ve seen many pass games be grounded of late and Lamb is no exception, as his aDOT has declined in three straight seasons (10.9 – 10.5 – 10.1 – 8.3). That, however, didn’t stop Lamb from posting his fourth 1,100-yard season. He doesn’t turn 26 until April, yet he already sits No. 2 on the Cowboys’ all-time list in 1,100-yard seasons (Michael Irvin: 6).
When it comes to 2025, I’m not hesitating to rank him among the best in the game and a first-round selection. The average depth of target stuff is interesting and would be more concerning if we weren’t dealing with an elite talent. I don’t think Dak Prescott is Joe Burrow, but we’ve seen Ja’Marr Chase’s usage follow a similar trajectory in the three healthy seasons from his franchise QB (12.6 in 2021, 9.1 in 2023, and 8.9 this season). I see no reason to think things will be different in the case of Dallas’ WR1.
It’s early, but I have six receivers labeled as Tier 1 redraft options for 2025, and Lamb is on that list (others: Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nico Collins, Puka Nacua, and Justin Jefferson).
Chris Olave, WR | NO (at TB)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 5
Olave is inactive for today's game.
The Saints toyed with the idea of bringing Chris Olave (concussion) back last week after the star receiver got in full practice sessions on both Wednesday and Thursday, but they ultimately elected to keep him inactive.
The Saints have no motivation to put him in a position to make a significant impact on Week 18 matchups, and while he is certainly talented enough to do so, betting on it happening is dangerous in anything. If he were playing, the only spot would have been a contrarian DFS build.
Christian Watson, WR | GB (vs. CHI)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 5
Watson is active for today's game.
Christian Watson lit up the Bears for 150 yards in Week 11, but doing so on four targets isn’t exactly the most sustainable performance.
The burner is battling a knee injury that he suffered in Week 16, which forced him to miss all of Week 17 (practices included). A compromised version of Watson is something I have no desire to bet my season on, but I will note that his target earning was trending in the right direction before getting hurt (13 targets on 43 routes in Weeks 14-15).
If you want to roll the dice on Watson in a postseason pool, you have a green light for me at cost. However, I’m not sure he plays this week, and even if he does, I’d be actively searching for options on my wire instead (Jalen Tolbert and Parker Washington are options in most spots).
Cooper Kupp, WR | LAR (vs. SEA)
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Kupp is inactive for today's game.
I’m not willing to say that Cooper Kupp and Father Time are in a battle, but these past three weeks have certainly poured gasoline on that topic.
- 67 routes
- 53 yards
- Nine targets
- Four catches
- Zero touchdowns
That’s brutal. His aDOT over that stretch (9.0) isn’t much different than his season rate (8.1), so that leads me to believe that there might be a health issue at play. Either that, random variance, or the most pronounced age cliff in recent memory.
I’ll sort out which of those buckets gets the most blame over the offseason. It will definitely be a situation to monitor moving forward.
Courtland Sutton, WR | DEN (vs. KC)
After reaching 70 yards receiving in six straight games, Courtland Sutton hasn’t cleared 55 in three straight, but he’s bailed you out with a score in two of those games.
That sort of decline should have your attention for the postseason, but I’m not close to sweating it this weekend. Despite the limited returns recently, Sutton has remained heavily involved (115+ air yards in four of his past five games) and didn’t struggle to generate looks in Week 9 against a full version of this Chiefs defense (32.1% target share, 70 yards, and a touchdown).
I currently have him sitting just outside of my WR1 tier this week, and that could easily change (three top-six finishes this season) as we gather more information about what Chiefs are/aren’t going to take the field.
Darius Slayton, WR | NYG (at PHI)
Darius Slayton rode the Drew Lock express last week (32-yard touchdown), but even with the Giants getting, by our measuring, the single-best QB game they’ve had in five seasons, Slayton was unable to catch more than two balls for the sixth straight game.
I don’t think Lock is Jameis Winston 2.0, and even if he is, I’m not sure that Slayton is capable of earning targets at the rate needed to make me comfortable.
Darnell Mooney, WR | ATL (vs. CAR)
Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM
Mooney is inactive for today's game
Darnell Mooney has cleared 70 air yards in both of Michael Penix Jr.’s starts but with very different outcomes, production lines that weren’t skewed due to a touchdown.
Week 16: 74 air yards, 9.8 expected points, and 13.2 points
Week 17: 78 air yards, 8.0 expected points, and 5.7 points
I think that is what we are going to see as this offense adjusts to Penix (this week and potentially in the postseason should they qualify). The do-or-die nature of this game is nice, but my lack of clarity as to how much work I can reasonably pencil in for Mooney has him outside of my top 35 receivers this week.
Last week, Drake London saw 13 targets while Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, and Darnell Mooney split 15 evenly. Atlanta’s WR2 was running hot coming into the Week 6 meeting with the Panthers and managed only three catches and a 17.2% target share.
There’s just as much risk as reward in this Week 18 profile, and that has me searching in other places to fill my Flex spot.
Davante Adams, WR | NYJ (vs. MIA)
The only players with more targets than Davante Adams (102) since he debuted for the Jets are Ja’Marr Chase (119) and Malik Nabers (110). That run includes an 11-target performance against these Dolphins in Week 14 (nine catches for 109 yards and a score), and the volume looks as sustainable as it was when this tandem was winning games in a different shade of green.
Adams saw a 2.1-yard average depth of target in last week’s lopsided loss in Buffalo. We could see a similar usage pattern this week with the Dolphins (like the Bills) being a defense that prioritizes taking away the big play. That might limit the raw upside for Adams, but I’m not worried about it. He’s averaging a career-high 5.6 yards per catch after the reception this season.
We could spend time arguing if Adams should be ranked as WR8 or WR18 (my WR14), but I’d be playing him in any spot where I have him.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR | KC (at DEN)
The Chiefs have yet to really extend DeAndre Hopkins (he’s topped out at a 63.1% snap share and has been held under 50% in three straight), and I don’t see that changing with nothing of substance on the line.
That’s a lie. Hopkins pockets a $500,000 bonus with a touchdown, so maybe they work to get him there, but that’s an awfully thin line to walk, especially since Mahomes isn’t going to be playing.
We have only gotten some clarity on Kansas City’s plans for playing time ahead of time — that has me fading all of their players under the assumption of rational coaching principle.
That’s a dangerous principle to follow with regularity, but I break it out in Week 18 because of the increased guesswork we are forced to do.
Deebo Samuel Sr., WR | SF (at ARI)
Week 18 Status: OUT
Last week was Samuel’s second (healthy) half this season without a single target. While he scored on his only “target” of the game, that was nothing more than a run play that happened to feature a forward lateral.
He has multiple rush attempts in four straight games, and even if he were playing, that wouldn’t have been enough to keep him ranked as a fantasy starter this week.
Samuel saw 16 targets in the two weeks before last week’s struggles, but that came on the heels of earning just 12 looks over a three-game stretch. I was hopeful that he’d establish some level of consistent role in this passing attack with Brandon Aiyuk out, but that’s been more Jauan Jennings than anything.
At this point, Samuel’s name carries more value than his on-field production. We’ll see if he is able to rebound next season.
Demarcus Robinson, WR | LAR (vs. SEA)
Over the past four weeks, Demarcus Robinson has run 89 routes and has not caught a single one of his five targets.
There is a time and a place for tertiary receivers in an offense with a pocket-locked quarterback. But like any good card player, you have to know when to fold’em — and that time was a month ago.
I’m usually late to the party on third options and early to cut bait. Does that burn me sometimes? Of course, but I’m happy to not swing at a bunch of randomness as opposed to banking on it sustaining.
Part of having success in fantasy sports is knowing yourself as a manager, which is the process that works for me. If you prefer to churn and burn roster spots, then a player like Robinson was likely on your roster at some point, but you need to be comfortable with aggressively cutting ties to avoid burning a roster spot.
DeMario Douglas, WR | NE (vs. BUF)
DeMario Douglas made the type of play last week that you love to see for so many reasons. Drake Maye identified the defense as being offsides, quick-snapped, and took full advantage of a free play in launching a pass down the middle of the field.
Douglas adjusted mid-flight, clearly expecting the ball after also seeing the defense jump, and made a diving 36-yard touchdown catch. The play, the read, and the connection.
Chef’s kiss.
Only time will tell if Douglas establishes himself as Khalil Shakir to Maye’s Josh Allen, but single moments like that are certainly encouraging. That said, that reception accounted for 78.3% of Douglas’ receiving yards for the day, continuing a trend that has seen him held under 65 receiving yards for 10 straight games. We are talking about a slot receiver with just one top-25 finish this season.
Douglas is a long way away from being a lineup lock, but I think he’s an interesting PPR add in the later rounds next season as a bet on the trajectory of this offense. He’s a WR4 for me this week and not one that I’m seeking to play just yet.
DeVonta Smith, WR | PHI (vs. NYG)
Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM
Smith is inactive for today's game as the Eagles are resting starters.
DeVonta Smith was shaken up early last week but finished with easily his best game of the season (6-120-2) in a shellacking of the Cowboys.
With nothing to gain from this week, I think you’re probably wise to avoid all pieces in Philadelphia outside of maybe Saquon Barkley if you want to play up the historic angle.
Smith’s role has been nearly identical for this team ever since A.J. Brown entered the mix (5-6 catches and 12-13 yards per catch per game), and I see no reason not to expect more of the same during the postseason and into 2025.
I don’t think he has a chance to be Tee Higgins (that is, a WR2 who has extended stretches where he is more productive than the WR1), but suitable year-end numbers appear to be a given at this point as long as you’re willing to deal with some variance on a weekly basis.
DJ Moore, WR | CHI (at GB)
DJ Moore is one of five players with at least seven targets in each of his past seven games played and the list is quite impressive:
- Malik Nabers: 14 Straight
- Ja’Marr Chase: 9
- Davante Adams: 8
- Puka Nacua: 8
- Moore: 7
That’s pretty impressive and if the Bears are treating the season finale as a way to further see where Caleb Williams is comfortable throwing the ball, I think it stands to reason to believe that Moore extends this streak.
When Chicago hosted Green Bay in Week 11, he caught seven passes for 62 yards, a line that has a chance to be replicated this week as the road team tries to play spoiler.
Moore is a PPR Flex for me this week, and if you gave me the opportunity to bet over/under his 2024 totals for 2025, I’d be tempted to take the overs across the board.
DK Metcalf, WR | SEA (at LAR)
DK Metcalf hasn’t had a catch gaining more than 30 yards since Week 7 and hasn’t had a 100-yard game since September. The Jaxon Smith-Njigba breakout has really cut the legs out from underneath the upside of him, and I’m not sure we’ll see that recovery this week in a meaningless game.
As of this writing, I have no reason to think that Metcalf sits out this game and that means ranking him alongside another proven receiver on a downswing due to a younger star taking over in Cooper Kupp.
Both are ranked as fine Flex plays for me this week, but neither appears worthy of the “co-WR1” label that we were assigning them as recently as a month ago.
Dontayvion Wicks, WR | GB (vs. CHI)
Dontayvion Wicks has played over 77% of Green Bay’s snaps in three of his past five games and has been trusted with six red-zone touches over that stretch.
Packers WRs usage, Week 17:
- Romeo Doubs: 84.2% snaps, 11 targets, and 18.5 expected PPR points
- Dontayvion Wicks: 77.2% snaps, five targets, and 8.3 expected PPR points
- Jayden Reed: 70.2% snaps, four targets, and 6.5 expected PPR points
- Bo Melton: 22.8% snaps, four targets, and 6.9 expected PPR points
The trends are moving in the right direction, but we’ve seen this story with Packers’ pass catchers before, and that is why I am hesitant to buy in. He was shut out in Chicago back in Week 11 (one target), a game in which Jordan Love threw just 17 passes.
I fear that we could be looking at another low-volume spot if Green Bay controls this game, landing Wicks outside of my Flex comfort zone. If you’re forced into a streaming spot, I prefer Jalen Tolbert to Wicks and Wicks to Parker Washington to give you an idea of the tier in which we are talking.
Drake London, WR | ATL (vs. CAR)
Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM
London is active for today's game
Drake London’s ascent to fantasy stardom may have just needed Michael Penix Jr. to take over. We’ve seen him post bigger stat lines than last week (don’t get me wrong, I’m not complaining about 7-106-0), but the fully featured role that the Falcons have placed upon him and that the rookie is continuing to execute is what has me excited both for this weekend and moving forward.
Last week, he had two more catches than any two of his teammates had targets. That doesn’t happen by accident and Penix’s willingness to look his way on a variety of routes has me downright giddy.
- Week 16: 6.5 aDOT
- Week 17: 13.7 aDOT
London has a 33.9% on-field target share across Penix’s two starts and posted a 34.5% target share when first meeting with the Panthers in Week 6. I’d be more surprised if you told me this week that London finished outside of the top 20 receivers than inside the top five at the position.
Garrett Wilson, WR | NYJ (vs. MIA)
Garrett Wilson has 10 top-30 performances this season and the floor has been great. For the most part. He has as many finishes outside the top 50 as he does inside the top five (three apiece), introducing a level of variance that is just enough to cast some doubt.
We obviously have no way of knowing what this team plans to do with Aaron Rodgers in this spot, but I’m operating as if he will play the majority of it barring a one-sided score. He was able to get Wilson 10 targets (seven catches for 114 yards) when these two teams played in Week 14 and while production like that is tough to pencil in, this is a very concentrated offense that projects to be playing from behind.
I’d rather play George Pickens, Jameson Williams, or even the upward-trending Jalen McMillan in gotta-have-it spots, but that doesn’t prevent Wilson from earning a top-25 grade and thus a starting nod in the vast majority of situations.
Hollywood Brown, WR | KC (at DEN)
Everything about Hollywood Brown’s usage since debuting for the team has been great and if there was a word bigger than great, I’d use it here.
Two games: 34 routes and 15 targets
If that is the sort of usage we are going to get during the playoffs, Brown could prove to be a league winner for those in playoff pools. I’m a little skeptical that we see elite usage sustained over the next month (Xavier Worthy’s role is on the rise and “Playoff Kelce” is likely to be unleashed at some point), but I’d still take a shot on him in a league like that.
For Week 18, I wouldn’t be surprised if Brown lasted longer than the primary regulars on this offense in an effort to get him into game shape, but you’re asking a lot from him if you plan on rolling him out there.
You could have talked me into Flexing Brown if we were going to get three or four quarters from Patrick Mahomes, but with that not being the case, I’m looking elsewhere for my Flex spot.
Jakobi Meyers, WR | LV (vs. LAC)
Jakobi Meyers is a good example of how valuable raw volume can be (eight top-30 finishes) if you trust the player. He’s proven to be an above-average player throughout his career, and that’s often enough if assigned this sort of alpha role.
I’m largely on board with a player like this, but against an elite defense with motivation, it isn’t really the spot for me. The Chargers have given up their fair share of big receiver games, and we may see that weakness exposed during the postseason, but I don’t expect it to be on Sunday.
The pass catchers who have given Los Angeles problems have been the big/physical types that want to high-point targets and/or box you out.
- Mike Evans (Week 15): 36.9 PPR points (17.8 expected)
- Tee Higgins (Week 11): 29.8 PPR points (22.1 expected)
- Ja’Marr Chase (Week 11): 26.5 PPR points (26.1 expected)
- Calvin Ridley (Week 10): 25.4 PPR points (14.9 expected)
Meyers really isn’t that type of player, and with Las Vegas projected for just 18 points this week, I’m looking for other options to fill out my Week 18 lineup.
Jalen Coker, WR | CAR (at ATL)
Jalen Coker has seen the slot role that he was occupying at points in the middle of the season decline with Adam Thielen healthy and playing well, something that has proven fatal to any projectable fantasy upside.
The rookie managed to earn just two targets on 31 routes last week in Tampa Bay, and I fear that this week could look similar. Through seven weeks, Coker’s aDOT was 10.4 yards, but it has sat at 13.1 yards since. That 26% rise may not seem like much, but in an offense that struggles with consistency down the field, it matters.
Coker is part of an interesting young core of pass catchers that I’m assigning more upside in 2025 than most, but that doesn’t mean getting ahead of things and investing this week.
Jalen McMillan, WR | TB (vs. NO)
I never want to be the one to heap expectations on a rookie, but I’m going to heap expectations onto a rookie.
Do I believe that Jalen McMillan is the next Amon-Ra St. Brown? To be honest, no, but I didn’t believe Amon-Ra St. Brown would be Amon-Ra St. Brown, so I like following interesting statistical threads like this.
No matter what you think the future holds for J-Mac, there’s no denying that he is uncovering at a high rate right now. The rookie has caught a touchdown pass in four straight games (the longest streak by a rookie since Lee Evans in 2004), all of which have yielded top-20 production at the position.
We will sort out the target hierarchy of this offense next season when at full strength, but in terms of projecting Week 18, McMillan is seeing enough usage to feel comfortable in starting as the Bucs profile as one of the better offensive bets this week.
Jalen Tolbert, WR | DAL (vs. WAS)
Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM
Tolbert is active for today's game
Talk about a day late and a dollar short. I like Jalen Tolbert coming into the season as Dallas’ WR2, operating under the thought that Brandin Cooks’ best days were behind him and that the attention paid to CeeDee Lamb would open things up for a secondary option.
None of that has really played out, but Tolbert has now scored in three straight games and found the painted area when these teams played in Week 12. Tolbert posted a 19% on-field target share last week, a rate that I think is about what we can expect in this Lamb-less offense.
Cooper Rush hasn’t been a world-beater by any means, but we did see him produce efficient numbers in two plus-matchups before last week (68.8% complete with four touchdowns and no interceptions against the Panthers and Buccaneers).
I’m not going out of my way to get Tolbert exposure this week, but if you think Dallas is going to be playing from behind, there’s a thread to pull, even if his value hinges more on touchdowns than I am comfortable.
Jameson Williams, WR | DET (vs. MIN)
It was a bumpy ride with inconsistencies and suspensions, but we seem to have arrived at a spot where Jameson Williams is deserving of lineup lock status, a label I expect him to very much carry over into 2025.
It’s amazing to look at Williams and Xavier Worthy side by side. Both are blessed with elite speed, but both have landed in creative offenses that are equally trying to get a feel for how to best use them. Much like Worthy, Williams has been getting his number called in exotic ways – he was on the scoring end of a hook-and-ladder on Monday night in a game that also saw him cash in a speed running play inside the 5-yard line.
Detroit knows what they have in Amon-Ra St. Brown and are now excelling at playing off of him. Williams has seen at least seven targets in five of his past six games, so even if the deep targets worry you, the sheer number of chances to connect is comforting.
This matchup suppresses some of my excitement, as the Vikes are a top-five defense against deep passes in terms of yards per completion and interception rate, but that’s not enough to knock him out of WR2 status.
Jauan Jennings, WR | SF (at ARI)
With Purdy not playing this week, I’ll be looking to bench Jauan Jennings. Josh Dobbs (5.8 yards per attempt with 15 touchdowns and 13 interceptions across 22 career appearances) is the next man up, and with Jennings on a very friendly deal for one more season, why put him in harm’s way?
If Purdy were suiting up, Jennings would have slid in as a viable Flex option in PPR leagues, thanks to him averaging 8.4 targets per game since the beginning of November. If we are operating under the assumption that Brandon Aiyuk has played his final game with this organization, Jennings is going to be a hot commodity next draft season – this offense is still a talented one when near full strength.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR | SEA (a,t LAR)
Last week was a struggle for many in fantasy championships and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (along with Terry McLaurin, James Conner, and others) was certainly a part of that.
After posting three straight top-20 finishes, JSN caught just three of six targets in Chicago for 32 yards. That game had plenty of weather concerns and was ugly for all 60 minutes, so I’m more than happy to write it off.
The Seahawks have nothing to play for, and while the Rams have some seed mobility, I don’t expect to place a ton of value on this contest either. Throwaway games like this are difficult to handicap, but Smith-Njigba looks like the top target earner in Seattle for years to come, and that is how I expect this offense to function on Sunday—he’s my WR16 this week, a ranking that will be lower than my 2025 season grade for him.
Jayden Reed, WR | GB (vs. CHI)
Jayden Reed hasn’t run 25 routes in a game since Week 9 and has only three end-zone targets on his 2024 ledger. And yet, I can’t quit him.
I know I’ve said it a few times, but why can’t be a souped-up version of Zay Flowers? Marry the Ravens’ WR1 ability to earn targets with his catch rate and YAC ability on his way to being a top-20 option.
Easy game, right?
In theory, I think so, and that is why I might buy back next season. For Week 18, I have him and Romeo Doubs ranked awfully close. Reed checks the matchup box (71.9% of his time is spent in the slot, and the Bears rank 22nd in yards per slot pass against this season), while Doubs’ form is certainly more encouraging.
This spread is trending toward double-digits — and that tracks. The Packers are trying to avoid the Eagles in the first round of the playoffs, and the Bears – well, their season has been done for a while now.
I’m expecting Green Bay to control this game from start to finish, but that could mean more Josh Jacobs than it does putting the game in Jordan Love’s hands. I feel good about no Packer in this passing game, but you could justify playing four pieces. You’re taking on some risk with Reed, but at least it’s a good spot for a team that will be functioning as normal.
Jaylen Waddle, WR | MIA (at NYJ)
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Waddle is active for today's game.
Jaylen Waddle missed last week’s win over the Browns with a knee injury, and his status is currently cloudy, although Mike McDaniel did sound optimistic when addressing the media on Monday.
His health, of course, is only one piece of the puzzle. Tua Tagovailoa is dealing with a hip injury, and Tyler Huntley is getting the early reps in practice this week. The Dolphins are still mathematically alive, and that has me leaning in the direction of Tagovailoa, but we have nothing definitive at this point in time, and it makes a HUGE difference:
- With Tagovailoa: 23.4% production over expectation, 1.9 yards/route, and 10.6 aDOT
- With Huntley: 30.4% production below expectation, 1.4 yards/route, and 8.1 aDOT
Waddle turned 12 targets into nine grabs and 99 yards in Week 14 against these Jets, a stat line that is encouraging if Tagovailoa is under center. The part that worries me about Huntley is that the production change is a result of a significantly different role.
Waddle is a talented player, and the dip in aDOT makes a viable performance possible but not projectable, and that would have him falling from a starter in most formats with Tagovailoa to a ‘pivot-if-possible’ option if not.
John Metchie III, WR | HOU (at TEN)
ADD.
John Metchie III was the player who saw his stock rise the most in the first game following Tank Dell’s injury – he matched a season-high snap share (72.2%) and earned a 25.8% target share in the loss to the Ravens.
Texans WRs production, Week 17:
- John Metchie III: 72.2% snaps and 9.8 points (14.9 expected)
- Xavier Hutchinson: 72.2% snaps and 4.1 points (6.3 expected)
- Nico Collins: 70.4% snaps and 8.9 points (9.5 expected)
- Robert Woods: 35.2% snaps and 4.1 points (3.2 expected)
I’m in no hurry to roll out Texans this week, as they profile as a vulnerable division champion and need to be at full strength to have a host at winning multiple games this postseason, but if I had to dig deep, Houston’s third-year receiver has my interest as a contrarian play.
Jordan Addison, WR | MIN (at DET)
Jordan Addison ranks sixth among receivers with at least 75 targets this season in production over expectation (+28.9%, just ahead of Ladd McConkey and Ja’Marr Chase). He looks like the real deal after a rookie year that I was willing to write off as Christian Watson-y because of the unsustainably high scoring rate.
In Week 7’s matchup with Detroit, Addison only caught three passes (66 yards), but Josh Nailor added 76 yards, and I think it’s safe to say that Addison is a good bet to absorb some of that usage.
The Lions are a top-10 deep ball defense in terms of both completion percentage and touchdown rate, making this a bit of a boom/bust matchup. We’ve seen what the valleys look like from Addison (six games under 45 receiving yards), and that drags him down to an average WR2 ranking for me this week, but the upside that comes with 12 red-zone touches over his past six games is tough to sit on in a week like this.
Addison can become the fourth player since 1985 to open his career with a pair of double-digit TD reception seasons (Odell Beckham Jr., Rob Gronkowski, and Randy Moss).
Josh Downs, WR | IND (vs. JAX)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 5
Downs is active for today's game.
Everything Josh Downs had put on film with Joe Flacco before last week was borderline special. He was vacuuming in targets at a high rate and looking like a receiver to watch for years to come.
And then, in a game that turned into a shootout, he operates as the third option behind Alec Pierce (94.5% snap share) and Michael Pittman Jr. (93.2%). I didn’t have that on my bingo card, and it resulted in just 22 yards on his 26 routes run against the Giants.
I’m not dismissing all of the good that Downs had done with Flacco before last week, but I’m certainly not sticking out my chest on him as a top-20 play like I was. Flacco funneled 12 targets in his direction (nine catches for 69 yards) in a Week 5 meeting with the Jags, and that has me thinking that a Flex rebound is certainly possible.
I have Downs ranked as a middling WR3 this week, profiling more of a floor than a ceiling PPR play.
Joshua Palmer, WR | LAC (at LV)
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Palmer is inactive for today's game.
Joshua Palmer has been more involved of late (12 targets on 47 routes over the past two weeks), but we really haven’t seen him impact winning in a major way for the Chargers.
He’s posted a negative EPA per target rate in three straight games, and the usage is simply too spotty to bank on. I’d love to say that a 6’1” athlete carries reliable upside, and his 15.1 aDOT gives him a path to success, though the projectable nature of his profile is limited due to inconsistent usage in the red zone.
Palmer was in a walking boot following Week 17’s blowout win, introducing yet another factor into things. Ladd McConkey is the only member of this passing game you can trust, and with Quentin Johnston soaking up plenty of perimeter usage, you’re overthinking things by going in this direction.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR | KC (at DEN)
If you told me some things didn’t happen, I’d believe you. These things happened so long ago that my memory faded, and I could easily be convinced it was a dream. Dinosaurs, the newspaper, the Miami Dolphins last playoff victory, things like that.
I think we’ve hit the point where JuJu Smith-Schuster’s breakout game for the Chiefs is now one of those things. Back in Week 5, he caught seven balls on 29 routes for 130 yards, and we all wondered if he could be the knockoff version of Rashee Rice for this offense.
Not even close.
He’s turned 149 routes into eight catches and 80 yards since then. Given the version of Smith-Schuster that we see these days, you could easily sell me on that nice day in early October when he carved up the Saints as a self-created image that never actually occurred.
Justin Jefferson, WR | MIN (at DET)
The best receiver in the game in the biggest game of the week – do I really need to sell you here?
Justin Jefferson earned a 30.8% target share when these teams first met (Week 7), and with injuries ravaging this Detroit defense, I’m not sure they have the manpower to defend Minnesota’s alpha WR.
Last week, the Packers did everything in their power to take away Jefferson – he earned 11 targets anyway and nearly decided the game with one of the better catches in the middle of the field that you’ll see, a highlight that was called back by penalty.
In football, as we know it today, I’m not sure you can guard greatness in the receiver position. The development of Jordan Addison adds just another wrinkle to this offense that Detroit might have problems with – this is going to be such a fun game, and you are lucky to have the fate of your matchup in the hands of a Jefferson hammer.
Kayshon Boutte, WR | NE (vs. BUF)
Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM
Boutte is active for today's game
Kayshon Boutte burned the Bills for 95 yards and a score two weeks – it’s easy to fall into the recency bias bucket and project the second-year receiver for a strong Week 18 stat line, understanding that he was able to produce against Buffalo’s starters and will likely be facing a lesser version of their secondary for the majority of Sunday.
I’d be careful. Before that explosion, he didn’t have a 60-yard game on his résumé. He’s been able to make some chunk plays this season, and that’s good to see when it comes to looking long-term, but the structure of Buffalo’s defense (no matter who is on the field) is to prevent those outcomes.
Boutte has a limited target ceiling, but at the very least, we have a handful of targets in four straight games to hang our hat on. I think this New England offense is an interesting one to roll out there in a DFS setting, as they are motivated to experiment with Drake Maye, but for season long, I’d rather take a safer role with a higher production floor.
Keenan Allen, WR | CHI (at GB)
Keenan Allen’s usage has been all over the place this season, but with 34 targets in his past three games, the opportunity count is at least in our favor. I suspect that the Bears, like the Patriots, will use this week as a high-pressure practice session, willing to take some risks in a game setting to develop their franchise quarterback.
How much of that experimenting will be geared toward Allen is my concern.
Allen is an unrestricted free agent this summer and the elder statesman in this receiver room. DJ Moore and Rome Odunze are likely to be the pieces Caleb Williams is dealing with for the foreseeable future, so why wouldn’t Chicago opt to feature them in a massive way to try to get a snapshot as to what the 2025 season could look like?
Allen saw a 4.3-yard aDOT last week, his second-lowest of the season. If his usage is removed, Moore is the more likely of the two remaining receivers to absorb it. As involved as he has been of late, I’m passing on Allen in Week 18 and have him ranked third of this trio.
Keon Coleman, WR | BUF (at NE)
Watch the Keon Coleman touchdown from last week and tell me this doesn’t look like a future playmaker in this league:
Keon Coleman put DJ Reed into a blender on this play #BillsMafia | #GoBills
pic.twitter.com/lcfNL4pT6I— Peter DiBiasi (@DibiasiPeter) December 30, 2024
It was a reckless Josh Allen play, but there’s a reason he has the confidence to throw a pass like that to a rookie. There was a foreshadowing of a play like this coming, as Coleman had a chunk play come off the board on Buffalo’s first drive due to offensive holding. A fade was also drawn up for him on the Bills’ first goal-to-go snap of Week 17, further proof that he is ascending up their priority list when it comes to opportunity count.
Coleman has cleared 65 air yards in three straight games (and in five of his past six), filling a pretty clear role in this offense. I think it’s likely that, in terms of playing time, Buffalo treats this like a preseason game, and that leads me to doubt that we get enough usage to roll the dice on Coleman.
I want exposure to him long-term, and that long-term might well start in the first game this postseason, but not this week.
Khalil Shakir, WR | BUF (at NE)
If the Bills are going to focus on one thing this week, I’d think they prioritize getting Khalil Shakir’s efficiency back on track:
- Week 1-9: 93.3% catch rate
- Week 10-17: 61.8% catch rate
Their slot machine is going to be critical if Buffalo is going to make noise this postseason, making it very possible that Shakir will see a few looks early with the first unit.
That said, the featured role that makes him so valuable to the Bills is enough to make me think that his reps are managed in a significant way this weekend, and that has me looking elsewhere (I’d rather take a slot receiver like Adam Thielen this week that is playing in an offense trying to develop their QB as opposed to managing their top option for the playoffs).
Ladd McConkey, WR | LAC (at LV)
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
McConkey is active for today's game.
Ladd McConkey started his NFL career with a 5-39-1 game against these Raiders, and he figures to be a strong fantasy asset again as he closes an impressive rookie campaign so long as the Chargers value their seed (their win against the Patriots on Saturday assured them of a playoff berth).
If you’re willing to give McConkey a seven-week adjustment period, his pace since Week 8 is noteworthy:
- 100 catches
- 1,491 yards
- Nine touchdowns
The only second-year receivers to hit all of those thresholds in NFL history are Justin Jefferson (2021) and Isaac Bruce (1995).
We could be looking at a special receiver who is going to be afforded the ability to grow alongside a franchise quarterback – this is how difference-making fantasy WRs are created. He’s the franchise’s leader in receptions by a rookie, and I’d wager that more history awaits this versatile steal of a draft pick.
You’re playing McConkey this week, understanding that you need to at least monitor reporting out of Los Angeles when it comes to their level of motivation.
Malik Nabers, WR | NYG (at PHI)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 5
Nabers is active for today's game.
The Giants have nothing to play for and would actually be wise to tank, but if last week was any indication, “tank” is not a word in the vocabulary of Mr. Drew Lock.
Malik Nabers is two catches from the rookie record and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. He is four receptions away from breaking Steve Smith’s franchise record (107 in 2009), and with 135 receiving yards, he can join Odell Beckham Jr., Victor Cruz, Homer Jones, and Del Shofner as the only Giants to average 85 receiving yards per game for a season.
And what better way to wrap up a tough season than to put up some decent numbers against a divisional rival (even if it’s largely against backups with Philadelphia being locked into the NFC’s two-seed)?
Plenty of stars will be limited this weekend, but I’m not sure we’ll see that in New York.
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR | ARI (vs. SF)
To call this season a disappointment numerically for Marvin Harrison Jr. would be an understatement, to say the least. It would be fun to see him finish with exactly seven catches and a score this week to equal the output of his dad in those categories during his rookie season in 1996 with the Colts, but that’s not exactly what we had in mind.
Mirroring his father long-term would be great, but based on where the expectations were entering this season, matching single-year marks from 28 years ago isn’t exactly ideal.
The Cardinals have lost five of six games, and Harrison hasn’t reached expectations based on his target diet in a single one of them. The 49ers held him to 36 yards on a 23.3% target share in Week 5, and that doesn’t exactly fuel optimism for me entering this game.
On the bright side, Arizona is motivated to send the rookie into the offseason on a positive note. He’s seen at least eight targets in four of his past five, and the three Lions who saw at least that many looks against San Francisco on Monday night all scored.
Harrison slips just inside my top 30 this week, ahead of the more veteran receivers like Calvin Ridley, Adam Thielen, and Keenan Allen, who are also playing in games that mean nothing for their team.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR | IND (vs. JAX)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 5
Pittman is active for today's game.
A rising Flacco lifts all boats; that’s what I always say.
Michael Pittman Jr. was the target of Joe Flacco’s first pass last week and ended up posting his first 100-yard game since September. Hell, it was just his second effort with 65+ receiving yards over that stretch in what has largely been a lost season for a player who was selected in the first round of most drafts this past summer.
The Colts have been eliminated, but with Anthony Richardson banged up, this projects to be the Flacco show again, and I’m basically treating him like Jameis Winston these days in that I ramp up the expectancy of all receivers in a major way when he is under center.
Pittman is far from a safe play (he’s owed $18,000,000 next season, so I wouldn’t blame Indianapolis for wanting to get out of 2024 without an injury), but he has posted over 11 expected PPR points in five of his last six and the usage was encouraging last week.
I’m prioritizing risky receivers on motivated teams over him (Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed, for example), but when it comes to experienced receivers on finished teams, give me Pittman over DK Metcalf (at LAR) or Adam Thielen (at ATL).
Michael Wilson, WR | ARI (vs. SF)
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Wilson is inactive for today's game.
Michael Wilson led the Cardinals in receiving in the Week 5 game in San Francisco, racking up 78 yards on a 20% target share. If there is one member of this Arizona passing game who could use a confidence boost entering 2025, it’s Wilson.
Trey McBride has had a phenomenal season, and Marvin Harrison Jr. isn’t going to struggle to believe in himself anytime soon. Wilson’s counting numbers weren’t there on his six targets, but with 11.6 expected PPR points, we aren’t far off of him being at least worthy of Flex consideration
This is the sort of profile I don’t mind betting on again at a discount next season, but not in Week 18, given that he has reached fantasy expectations just once twice in his past eight games, both of which came against the same opponent (Seattle) – the good news there is that as long as he is a Cardinal, the Seahawks will be on the schedule twice a season!
Mike Evans, WR | TB (vs. NO)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 5
Evans is active for today's game.
I don’t value the “Player A is close to a financial bonus” narrative, especially since the Buccaneers are more concerned with a playoff berth than anything. That said, when those incentives align with the team’s best interest, I think there’s a good chance to make everyone happy on Sunday.
Evans is five catches and 85 yards away from a $3 million bonus, an 11th straight 1,000-yard season, and likely a divisional title. We are talking about a player who has four multi-end-zone target games this season, bringing his total to 10 over his past 28 contests.
Few players have been able to marry scoring consistency with target volume for a decade-plus the way Evans has and there is absolutely no reason to run from him this weekend in a matchup that no longer features Marshon Lattimore.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR | TEN (vs. HOU)
The Nick Westbrook-Ikhine profile was always a thin one. The touchdowns were great, but they were essentially his only targets, and we are talking about the 30th-ranked scoring offense in the league.
He has just 82 yards to show for his 140 routes over his past four games and can be firmly left out of your Flex consideration this week. Calvin Ridley remains the top option in this passing game, and Mason Rudolph has taken a liking to Chig Okonkwo when it comes to target volume, leaving NWI without a path to much of anything in terms of projectable opportunity.
Nico Collins, WR | HOU (at TEN)
Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM
Collins is active
If there is going to be a single receiver to create chaos in the AFC playoffs, Nico Collins would be my pick. It’s likely going to be a difficult road and require plenty of help, but what if things break just right?
What if the Steelers win the AFC North and the Texans get an, at times, iffy Ravens secondary in Round 1? What if they get the Bills in Round 2 and get caught up in a shootout? What if the Chargers shock the Chiefs, and their struggles with athletic receivers are all that separates the Texans with a date from the run-and-gun Lions in New Orleans?
Yes, I think Collins is worth what will be a depressed price in postseason drafts if Pittsburgh wins the North, and those pieces have a chance at falling into place. No, I don’t think we get enough run from him this weekend to play him with the utmost confidence.
Why would Houston play with fire? They’ve already lost two playmaking receivers, and this isn’t exactly a team that has multiple ways to succeed. They rely as heavily on a single RB and a single WR as anyone in the league – I’m projecting nothing more than a casual appearance from the starters in this game.
Collins has cleared 110 air yards in three of his past five games, a role that, if you couldn’t tell, I’m happy to roll the dice on during the postseason.
Parker Washington, WR | JAX (at IND)
There is one player in the NFL who has seen a minimum of three targets over each of the past two weeks and has posted a 100% catch rate with 10+ PPR points in both contests – that would be the pride of Penn State Parker Washington.
No, that’s not the least bit predictive, but it’s nice bar trivia. This Mac Jones-led offense is far from functional, and with one game of a 20% on-field target hare, Washington isn’t the type of profile that screams breakout.
The recent efficiency is good to see, though, and with a snap share north of 74% in five straight games, you could take a DFS flier on a crazier option. I don’t have him ranked as anything more than a Flex option, but the team is clearly interested in what he has to offer as they are using him downfield and in the slot.
He’s been viable in this Christian Kirk/Evan Engram flex sort of role – with both under contract for 2025, this Washington spark is more likely than not to burn out by the time you next draft.
Puka Nacua, WR | LAR (vs. SEA)
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Williams is inactive for today's game.
Puka Nacua has established himself as one of the best players in the game, and there is no debate about it. He was ejected early in the first meeting with the Seahawks – all he has done since is post a 142.4 catch pace.
We’ve seen the Rams ramp up their desire to get him the ball. Be it a recent surge in rushing attempts or an aDOT that is down 14.9% from his historic rookie season, it’s clear that Los Angeles is well aware that they have something special.
You’re starting him every week of every season for the foreseeable future – Nacua is going to cost you a first-round pick this summer, and the odds are good that he’ll be worth every penny.
Quentin Johnston, WR | LAC (at LV)
I’ve never been so conflicted with a player as I have been with Quentin Johnston. It’s not a secret – I’m very much a numbers guy over an eye test/feel guy. Part of that comes from my math background and part from being 140 pounds soaking wet – I’m built like a researcher more than a receiver, a man of data lines more than a lineman.
Quentin Johnston’s profile looks strong across the board. He’s posted an on-field target share north of 22% in three of his past four games and has five end-zone looks over his past five. He’s operating opposite of Ladd McConkey and that puts him in favorable alignments as defenses can’t send much in the way of resources.
It all sounds so good. Add in the fact that Joshua Palmer is working through a heel injury, and it should be wheels up, right?
And then you flip on a Charger game and see a few drops. You see a few of the lazy routes. It challenges all of the data, and it makes sense why the star hasn’t shined the way he had hoped.
I find myself often relying on matchups with Johnston more than anything, and shockingly enough, this isn’t as good a spot as you want to think. Up to this point, 95.8% of his fantasy points this season have come when lined up out wide, a spot on the field where the Raiders have proven reasonably stingy (top 12 in both yards per attempt, completion percentage, and touchdown rate on perimeter targets).
Johnston is sitting outside of my top 30 at the position, a damning ranking given that his team is motivated to play all out this week.
Robert Woods, WR | HOU (at TEN)
I shared some hope last week that Robert Woods would work himself into a regular role with Tank Dell out, but that went to John Metchie III instead, thus rendering Woods useless at this point.
He’d be a tough sell in a meaningless game anyway, as playing a veteran receiver in a spot like this feels like more risk than reward for a team that is thin at the position as it is. Woods was on the field for just 35.2% of Houston’s snaps a week ago, and at this point in his career, 13 routes aren’t even remotely close to getting my attention.
This passing game is Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz or bust for me moving forward, and I’m not sure either of them will be extended in an impactful way on Sunday.
Rome Odunze, WR | CHI (at GB)
Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM
Odunze is active for today's game
I don’t think “post-hype sleeper” will be an appropriate title for Rome Odunze in 2025, but my evaluation of him hasn’t changed a bit from the preseason. If his ADP falls just because he hasn’t had a Ladd McConkey-type rookie season or isn’t peaking late like Xavier Worthy, I’m going to be overweight on him in redraft situations.
But for Week 18, against a Packers team that is playing for seeding, I don’t think you can play Odunze with much confidence. Yes, he led the Bears in receiving when these teams first squared off (Week 11: 6-65-0 on a 32.3% target share), but when stepping back a touch, this profile isn’t one that I’m betting on in a fantasy championship setting.
The rookie has a 38.9% catch rate over his past three games and has found the end zone in just one of 13 contests. There have been sparks of optimism, and I think he will take on a greater role in 2025 for an offense that I expect to develop, but that’s going to take an offseason worth of work, not a single week.
If you roll out Odunze this week, you’re losing the battle, but I think you’re winning the war by being higher than your competition on him.
Romeo Doubs, WR | GB (vs. CHI)
Romeo Doubs was Jordan Love’s top read on Sunday (37.9% target share). While I’m not confident that will stick, I am confident that the Packers will be playing to avoid the No. 7 seed this postseason, which should at least have Doubs on your radar.
The hard part about this profile is knowing what to believe. Projecting Green Bay’s target shares week over week is a spin of the roulette wheel, and while I’m encouraged by what we saw last week in Minnesota, my eyebrow is raised that we see a flipped profile like that again.
- Week 17: 8.3 aDOT
- Weeks 12-16: 14.3 aDOT
On one hand, I’m encouraged by Green Bay’s willingness to regress his aDOT and give him a more efficient role. Not only did it pay off in Week 17, but it tells me that the team is confident in Doubs’ ability to win on multiple levels.
Even if you don’t think the shortened route tree sticks, a matchup with a bottom-10 defense against deep passes in terms of passer rating, completion percentage, yards per attempt, yards per completion, and interception rate is inviting.
I’ve finally moved Doubs ahead of Jayden Reed this week, but I’ve been burned too many times by the Packers’ passing game to tell you that I entered Week 18 with much confidence in handing out target projections. In terms of raw fantasy points, I have Doubs checking in just ahead of Reed and both of them ahead of Tucker Kraft, though few outcomes would surprise me this week and during the postseason.
For playoff-centric leagues, I like the idea of getting the cheapest of those three and taking your chances on swinging variance in your favor during a surprise Packer run to New Orleans.
Terry McLaurin, WR | WAS (at DAL)
Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM
McLaurin is active for today's game
So what?
Terry McLaurin was locked down last week (one catch on 41 routes). That stinks if it sunk you during your fantasy playoffs and/or set you back during a two-week matchup.
I’m sure he feels terrible. But in no way should that impact your confidence in Washington’s WR1 this week, during the playoffs, or moving into next season.
In fact, I’d be more likely to argue that last week was a good thing. We’ve seen this in Minnesota, where defenses are daring anybody not named Justin Jefferson to beat them, and they have 14 wins in part because Jordan Addison is making them pay for that game plan.
There isn’t an Addison on this roster, but the Commanders won a game last week in which Olamide Zaccheaus and Zach Ertz were heavily featured and productive (58.3% of the catches and 69.2% of the receiving yards), which could impact how this team is defensed moving forward.
McLaurin cleared 100 yards and scored in Week 12 against Dallas, and with his team playing for seeding, I expect him to be a full-go on Sunday. He’s having a career year (12 touchdown catches are as many as his previous top two seasons combined), and you should be privileged to be able to start him in Week 18.
Tim Patrick, WR | DET (vs. MIN)
The idea of Tim Patrick made sense early in December when he saw 7+ targets in consecutive games for maybe the NFL’s best offense, but those days are pretty clearly behind us.
With Jameson Williams functioning as a full-time threat, Sam LaPorta rediscovering his form, and Jahmyr Gibbs’ usage ramping up after David Montgomery’s injury, there just isn’t any meat left on the bone for Patrick.
Like, literally, no meat. Patrick has been held without a catch on 45 routes over the past two weeks and can safely be overlooked in all spots, even in the more impactful Week 18 game that most are looking for ways to get exposure to.
Tyler Lockett, WR | SEA (at LAR)
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Lockett is active for today's game.
Tyler Lockett saw four targets last week in Chicago, and the sheer fact that is notable should tell you all you need to know.
Those four looks were his most in a game since mid-October, and in a plus-matchup, Lockett paid them off with 20 yards. There’s no reason to look this way in any capacity with the Seahawks playing for nothing and Lockett’s statistical profile in clear decline.
The veteran WR is owed $10 million next season, though Seattle has a potential out this summer. If this is Lockett’s last game as a Seahawk, maybe they funnel him a few looks for a touchdown, but that’s about as flimsy of a case as you could possibly make.
Lockett hasn’t averaged over a yard per route since Week 9 and hasn’t cleared 10 expected PPR points since Week 6.
Tyreek Hill, WR | MIA (at NYJ)
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Hill is active for today's game.
Tyreek Hill did it. He was able to produce with Tyler Huntley under center last week, catching all nine of his targets against the Browns for 125 yards.
I loved what I saw from Hill compared to previous Huntley starts. His 9.6-yard aDOT allowed him to be efficient and function in a similar role compared to when Tua Tagovailoa is under center, and that’s exactly what we need.
How much of that was matchup-based (Browns rank 28th in yards per pass attempt allowed this season while the Jets rank 13th)? How much of that was due to Jaylen Waddle sitting out with a knee injury?
We’ll get those answers this weekend as Miami fights to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, though I still have concerns when you take a step back and look at the numbers with/without Huntley:
- With Tagovailoa: 4.1% production over expectation and 11.5 aDOT
- With Huntley: 12.7% production below expectation and 14.3 aDOT
They got better last week, but they still aren’t good. That said, we aren’t sure who is calling the shots for Miami this week. I do anticipate a hefty target share either way (10-115-1 on a 31.1% share in this matchup four weeks ago), and that’s enough to start Hill. Still, you need to be aware that his range of outcomes is very wide should Huntley get the nod again.
Hill’s range of outcomes is pretty wide with Tagovailoa as well, but I’m more willing to pencil him in for top-10 upside this weekend if that’s the case than if Huntley is calling the shots, especially if Waddle were to return.
Wan’Dale Robinson, WR | NYG (at PHI)
Wan’Dale Robinson scored for the first time in nearly two months, but that’s to be expected when Drew Lock looks like a Hall of Famer for 60 minutes.
Consider me just a little skeptical about that sustaining.
That said, even if the quality of the pass falls off a cliff this weekend, last week’s volume was good to see. Robinson and Malik Nabers combined for a 63.6% target share against the Colts, both hauling in a single pass that gained more yards than any of their teammates had received for the entire game.
Robinson is what he is — a PPR scam that should find some room to operate against an Eagles defense that will feature reserves with them locked into the NFC’s No. 2 seed. I’d caution against penciling in much in the way of upside, but 9-12 PPR points is a plenty reasonable assumption, and in the right matchup, that holds value.
Xavier Legette, WR | CAR (at ATL)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 5
Legette is active for today's game.
Xavier Legette is the YOLO option on a team that is routinely falling behind and, thus, pressed into an aggressive game script. The rookie ran just 25 routes last weekend in Tampa Bay, and yet, he finished the game with 142 air yards, a crazy rate for a player who is not typically featured.
In theory, those two sentences should have me recommending Legette this week, especially against a motivated opponent and on a fast track. Carolina should be playing catch-up for the majority of this game, and with a young nucleus of players, should be looking to throw anything and everything against the wall to see what sticks.
Fantasy matchups, however, are not won on theory alone. We just saw A.J. Terrell give Terry McLaurin fits, and I worry Legette could fall victim to a similar fate. Even if he were to get loose on a deep route or two, are we confident that Carolina’s offense pays it off?
The Panthers rank bottom 10 when throwing long passes this season in passer rating, yards per completion, and interception rate. This role that Legette holds may be one we target in the future, but for right now, it offers more risk than reward.
Xavier Worthy, WR | KC (at DEN)
Stop me if you’ve heard this before — I like where things are headed for the Chiefs as we conclude the regular season and get ready for the playoffs.
Last week, Xavier Worthy joined Saquon Barkley as the only rookie in NFL history with nine targets and multiple rush attempts in three straight games. Not bad company and a clear sign that Andy Reid is getting a handle on the chess pieces at his disposal.
This makes me all sorts of bullish on Worthy’s stock in postseason formats and for 2025. His role will take some adjusting when Rashee Rice returns to action, but not for this week. Reid has spent all season slow playing Worthy’s usage; why would he put the rookie in harm’s way for a meaningless game?
The kicker is that even if Reid were to put Worthy on the field, are we sold he produces? This offense will look different with nothing on the line, and Worthy was held to just a single catch on 37 routes when these two teams met in Week 10.
The Broncos are playing for everything, while the Chiefs are more interested to see how the seeding around them shakes out. Sell any short-term Worthy shares, but buy moving forward past Week 18 in whatever capacity you can.