It’s Week 17, and for fantasy football leagues, it means you’re playing for the championship title, or if you’re in leagues that go to Week 18, you’re fighting for a chance to play in the championship game. You either win or go home — it’s as simple as that.
There are always plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant wide receiver in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 16 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Adam Thielen | CAR (at TB)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, December 29
Thielen is active for today's game.
Adam Thielen has caught 5+ passes in all four games this month and has scored in three of his past six, but he has just two games this season with 60+ receiving yards. The rate numbers look good across the board, and this matchup is inviting. However, can you really trust a Bryce Young weapon with your championship on the line?
Thielen posted an 8-99-1 line in the Week 13 meeting and none of it was fluky. Young was looking his way and hit him on a 25-yard pass to send the game into overtime. The game itself was encouraging, and it tracks with season-long trends. The Bucs allow the second-most yards per slot pass attempt in the league this season.
The downside of this offense as a whole stops me from elevating Thielen into my top 30 at the position, but he’s safely tucked inside the top 40 and can be flexed with more confidence in leagues that weigh receptions/yards heavier than touchdowns.
A.J. Brown | PHI (vs. DAL)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, December 29
Brown is active for today's game
“If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right.”
Jerry Seinfeld, one of the great philosophers of our time, uttered that line to George Costanza years ago. I can’t help but think it applies here. The Eagles’ instinct last season was to come out of the gates firing. Establish themselves as a powerhouse and heavily feature A.J. Brown in their attempt to overwhelm you with production.
It worked until it didn’t.
If the opposite then has to be right (assuming that the Eagles are George Costanza, the Everyman who has a hard time getting out of his own way), how does ending the season like that sound?
Weeks 3-7, 2023:
- 29.9% on-field target share
- Four end zone targets
- 25.8 PPR PPG
Weeks 15-16, 2024:
- 34.7% on-field target share
- Four end zone targets
- 24.4 PPR PPG
Included in both of those sample sizes is a game with at least 13 targets and a touchdown against the Commanders. The stars align further for the week following this data set, as Brown faced a defense that allowed over 7.5 yards per pass and a touchdown on 5% of all throws and gets the pleasure of another such spot this weekend.
In said spot last season, Brown casually dropped 33 PPR points and carried your squad. That was a Week 8 game — the stakes are higher now, with Philadelphia a win away from locking up the NFC East. I’m that much more confident in Philly’s go-to option.
Of course, the math will be reworked should Jalen Hurts sit out, but there won’t be an actionable change for season-long managers, just less bravado from your humble narrator.
Alec Pierce | IND (at NYG)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, December 29
Pierce is active for today's game
A Week 15 concussion left Pierce in protocol for too long to make Week 16 a possibility. You read the plus matchup metrics in the Anthony Richardson profile, and while that could result in him pulling “a Pierce,” fantasy managers are best to look elsewhere in their title games.
“Pulling a Pierce” (slang): The act of catching no more than three passes but totaling at least 125 yards and a touchdown in the process.
Used in a sentence: Twice in the first month of this season did Alec Pierce ‘pull a Pierce,’ giving him as many such performances in 28 days as all other players have since the start of the 2020 season.
Amari Cooper | BUF (vs. NYJ)
Note to future self: proceed with caution when a very good team makes a trade deadline acquisition.
The Diontae Johnson situation in Baltimore has been an unmitigated disaster. While DeAndre Hopkins going to Kansas City has helped more than Mike Williams in Pittsburgh, I overestimated the impact they’d have across the board.
I think the process of the analysis (and the acquisitions, for that matter) was sound. These players either fit a need or a style of play and have proven capable of producing at this level. But I got over my skis — I apologize.
The cover boy for this is Amari Cooper, a receiver who was theoretically brought in to take this Bills offense to the next level. This is an answer for them moving on from Stefon Diggs this offseason. While it’s true that this offense has looked as good as any since the deal, it has just about as much to do with me as it does Cooper.
Not much.
A wrist injury resulted in some missed time, but in his seven games with the team, he’s reached 8.5 expected PPR points just once. I’d blame it on a learning curve if I could, but the Bills simply aren’t interested in him being featured. His 55.2% snap share on Sunday was his highest since joining the franchise.
Even when he is on the field, his impact is minimal. We all remember the viral clip of Keon Coleman telling him where to run his route while on the line of scrimmage, which resulted in a score in his debut. That was a fun clip, but it’s now a sad reminder of the last time Cooper saw a look in the end zone.
This offense has elevated without his help (one game with 70 air yards), and as they look to round into postseason form, why would we expect that to change in a significant way this week?
It’s possible that Buffalo (and all of these teams with talented receivers doing very little) will unleash a Cooper package in January and make a run through the conference. I’m not ruling it out, as everything I said in a positive light post-trade remains true. That could be huge for a #BillsMafia fan base that is starving for a winner, but in the scope of winning 2024 fantasy titles, I’d be surprised if Cooper was a factor at all.
Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET (at SF)
Wait, you’re telling me that Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 75% of his targets and found the end zone last week? That never happens …
Games with at least a 75% catch rate and a TD reception, 2024:
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 10
- Mark Andrews: 7
- Ja’Marr Chase and George Kittle: 6
No player has married scoring equity with efficiency quite like St. Brown this season. When you zoom out, it’s even more impressive. Do you want the full list of instances since 2000 in which a player had more than 10 games like this through 16 weeks in a season?
- Randy Moss, 2007
That’s it, and that’s all. St. Brown’s name deserves to be thrown into the 1.01 discussion. He’s the first Lion to have multiple 100-1,000-10 seasons on his résumé, and I’m confident that he will add a third such year in 2025.
Brandin Cooks | DAL (at PHI)
Brandin Cooks’ playing time is inching up, but he’s simply going to run out of time. We saw signs of decline last season; even if you think there is gas left in the tank, this Cooper Rush-led offense doesn’t have much of a path to accessing that.
In his eight appearances this season, Cooks is averaging just 0.80 yards per route. He’s well off of fantasy radars in all formats at this point and might have a hard time finding a suitor when he becomes an unrestricted free agent after this season wraps.
Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX (vs. TEN)
Brian Thomas Jr. is one of three receivers since 2000 to post 1,000 yards and nine touchdown catches through 16 weeks of his rookie season — and they all came from LSU (Odell Beckham Jr. in 2014 and Ja’Marr Chase in 2021).
Whose career trajectory will BTJ’s follow?
I’m a hopeless optimist, so I want to lean toward Chase. We can have that talk after this season ends. When it comes to Week 17, I’m beyond nervous. Mac Jones hadn’t completed a pass over 20 air yards this season prior to last week (62-yard TD to Thomas), and now he faces the fifth-best YPA defense on deep passes. Thomas has been elite, I get it. Heck, I’ll give you the numbers:
WRs in the 24 PPR PPG Club since Week 13:
- Ja’Marr Chase: 26.6 PPG
- Davante Adams: 26.5 PPG
- Justin Jefferson: 26.5 PPG
- Thomas: 24.0 PPG
But this could be a down spot where volume is an issue, and I’m nowhere near comfortable in assuming that the quality of targets in Jacksonville can offset a lack of quantity. I still have BTJ ranked as a starter, but he’s outside of my top 20 at the position for the first time in a while, and I won’t have any DFS exposure.
Calvin Ridley | TEN (at JAX)
Calvin Ridley is the third Titans receiver over the past 20 years to have seven receptions and three touchdowns, gaining 30+ yards in a single season. The others? A.J. Brown (2019-20) and DeAndre Hopkins (2023).
That’s pretty good, and his 37.5% target share in the first edition of this matchup with his former employer is a nice feather to have. Of course, the fact that he had more catches in that game (seven) than Tennessee had points (six) is the elephant in the room fantasy managers are forced to deal with.
I’m more in than out on Ridley this week, with the thought being that any quarterback who has managed to hang around the NFL for six seasons should be able to have his moments against a defense that not only ranks bottom-five in deep pass touchdown rate and yards per pass on those deep throws but also is the worst unit in the league when it comes to slowing receivers after the catch is made.
What the future holds for the Titans at the QB position remains to be seen, but if Ridley is under contract for the next three seasons, they will likely want to keep him happy heading into the offseason. He was able to salvage a three-catch game last week; if he continues to serve as a field stretcher, this is about as good as the spot gets.
Cedric Tillman | CLE (vs. MIA)
Updated at 2:35 PM ET on Sunday, December 29
Tillman is inactive for today's game.
The Browns are “hopeful” that Cedric Tillman can return from a concussion that has resulted in four missed games, but I can’t imagine a situation in which you’re rolling the dice on a player like this in an offense that went from recklessly aggressive to mind-numbingly conservative with their change under center.
The Tillman-coaster was a fun ride for three weeks (32 targets and three touchdowns), but his skill set, when fully healthy, aligns perfectly with Jameis Winston, not Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
Could a 24-year-old with high-end athletic traits develop into something? Of course. Can he do it with Cleveland seemingly committed to Deshaun Watson? I’m not so sure – I don’t think he’ll be on my list of favorite late-round flyers for 2025.
CeeDee Lamb | DAL (at PHI)
Updated at 4:20 PM ET on Thursday, December 26
Lamb has officially been ruled out for the remainder of the NFL season due to a shoulder injury.
“My shoulder is outta whack, I’m not gonna even lie to you. … It’s not fun, but I love this game that much.”
I don’t know how to spin that forward. Should we take the low-hanging fruit and drop him down the ranks, or should we go the contrarian route, using this mindset as the type of grind that we want in our starters?
The Cowboys took the decision making out of our hands on Thursday by ruling out their star receiver not only for Week 17, but for Week 18 as well. Lamb is a special talent that you should consider in the first round of your 2025 drafts, but he can safely be released in redraft formats now.
Jalen Tolbert and KaVontae Turpin are the receivers set to benefit the most from this status, but neither is a safe play. If you’re swimming upstream as an underdog, I’d swing big on Turpin, but you have to do so with the understanding that the floor is a goose egg.
Christian Watson | GB (at MIN)
Updated at 2:55 PM ET on Sunday, December 29
Watson is inactive for today's game.
Christian Watson is always one play away from an injury (yeah, yeah, yeahchnically everyone is, but you understand what I’m getting at), and he’s again banged up with a vague lower-body injury.
The man runs 11 routes, finally sees a target on the 12th, and then leaves injured. The Packers’ offense takes on a different look when Watson is right, and that is something they are going to need if they want to make a playoff run. I’d be surprised if he plays a full complement of snaps this weekend, and even if he does, the Vikings own the third-highest deep ball interception rate and excel at taking away those long shots.
Jayden Reed is the only receiver I have interest in this week for the Packers, though the ancillary pieces can have some upside should Watson sit.
Chris Olave | NO (vs. LV)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, December 29
Olave is inactive for today's game.
Olave is nearing two straight months missed with a concussion, and while it is nice to see him nearing full health, betting on him seeing a full complement of snaps, if active, in this low-octane offense is a long shot.
Add in the fact that the quality of targets is far from a given, and you’re realistically looking at 2025 as the next time you can play this WR1.
This was a lost season for Olave, but don’t lose track of him at a top-heavy position this summer — he still has the tools to be a difference-maker in the first handful of rounds.
Darius Slayton | NYG (vs. IND)
Darius Slayton’s role behind Malik Nabers was always going to be thin, and the mess at the quarterback position removed all hope. In order for a player like Slayton to thrive, there would have to be hope for a singular play – good luck with that.
The Giants are a bottom-five offense when it comes to stretching the field in completion percentage, yards per completion, and touchdown rate. That’s not ideal, and with the second-best defense in terms of interception rate on those passes, there’s no reason to think that Slayton sees a single target with significant potential attached to it.
Darnell Mooney | ATL (at WAS)
In Michael Penix Jr.’s debut, Darnell Mooney’s rates were awfully close to the numbers he has put up this season as a whole. His target share was up a tick, and his depth of target was down a little, but there is nothing that has me adjusting his ranking as a low-end WR3.
The Commanders are the second most vulnerable defense in terms of deep touchdown rate, so there’s a thread to pull if you really need to roll the dice. That said, we are talking about a player with three sub-30-yard games over his past five who hasn’t scored since Week 9.
I’d rather not play him if I have upside elsewhere. Josh Downs (at NYG) has a more stable skill set in a similarly plus matchup, while Adam Thielen (at TB) continues to get chances to produce usable weeks — I’d play both of them over Mooney in Week 17.
Davante Adams | NYJ (at BUF)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, December 29
Adams is active for today's game.
Davante Adams has four straight games with 65+ receiving yards and a touchdown catch — only three receivers have had a longer such streak at age 30 or older (Terrell Owens, Cris Carter, and Muhsin Muhammad).
First of all, drink up if you bet against a Muhsin Muhammad mention in the year 2024. It took a while, but we got there. More importantly, let’s put some respect on this profile. The counting numbers look great over that run, and the closer you look, the better they get.
He has six end zone targets across those four contests and has been targeted on 41.7% of his red-zone routes, a rate that is unheard of for a player at this stage in his career. The Bills are a lot of things, but an elite red-zone unit isn’t one of them (18th), and that gives Adams enough scoring equity to be started across the board, even if you think this is a lopsided affair.
In Week 6, Aaron Rodgers funneled half of his targets to his two top receivers, and both were top-five producers at the position for the week (Allen Lazard and Garrett Wilson both cleared 100 yards and scored). I’m not forecasting production at quite that level, but both of his top threats should see plenty of looks in a favorable game script, and that’s more than enough for me.
Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF (vs. DET)
Deebo Samuel Sr. has produced 15% below PPR expectations this season, the lowest rate of his otherwise very efficient career. His points per target (1.57) also sits at a career low and his expected points per game are down 6.4% from a season ago.
There are no two ways about it — 2024 has been a tough season for anyone who drafted Samuel. That said, if you’ve patchworked things together up to this point, we are finally getting the usage that we thought we’d get from the jump.
Week 16’s loss in Miami was his first game with 5+ targets and 5+ rush attempts since Week 1, and it might just stick given the injuries on the offensive side of the ball for San Francisco. He’s run the ball 12 times over his past three games, up from one attempt (for minus one yard) in his previous three games.
Better late than never, but never late is better.
Samuel turns 29 in less than a month and has more wear and tear at this age than more traditional receivers. I’m Flexing him this week, but his 2025 value is a giant question mark given his trajectory, not to mention the status of Brandon Aiyuk.
DeVonta Smith | PHI (vs. DAL)
DeVonta Smith went from GOAT to goat in a hurry last week after he dropped a pass that would have likely kept the Eagles in a great spot to compete for the NFC’s one seed and eventually resulted in a soul-crushing loss to the Commanders.
That series of events hurt Philadelphia fans in a significant way, but the game as a whole was fine for forward-thinking fantasy managers. Smith has cleared a dozen expected PPR points in three straight games (he didn’t have one such performance in his previous six) and has 6+ catches or a touchdown in five of his past seven.
The interesting part of Smith’s profile is that what we perceived as his greatest skill has been removed from his role. Over his past four games, his aDOT sits at just 6.7 yards, essentially half of where it was in the previous three games (13.3).
With time, that’s resulted in an increase in efficiency (85% catch rate over the past two weeks, and that includes the bad drop last week that he catches at least 95% of the time) and could well be the norm for the remainder of the regular season as the Eagles try to figure out how to best maximize their weapons.
Smith was held to just two catches in the Week 10 meeting with the Cowboys, but I’m comfortable projecting him to double or triple that output given his new target diet. This season, the Cowboys are the worst team in the league in terms of completion percentage and yards per attempt on those short passes. Philadelphia fans aren’t usually ones to forgive and forget, but I think Smith can work his way back into the good graces with a big Week 17.
Dontayvion Wicks | GB (at MIN)
Dontayvion Wicks scored on Green Bay’s opening drive in their dominant win over New Orleans, his first trip to the end zone since Week 7. The snapping of the scoring drought was good to see, but it was his only action of the game, and he’s pretty clearly an afterthought in an offense with no shortage of options.
Wicks was a popular sleeper this preseason as a way to get cheap exposure to a strong offense — as it turns out, not all offenses, even the strong ones, consistently support multiple pass catchers.
Drake London | ATL (at WAS)
Week 17 Status: PLAYING
Michael Penix Jr. fed his top target with five of his first 10 targets (three completions for 34 yards), making last week a win for those with Drake London on their roster from a process standpoint.
Would I have preferred a better final line than 5-59-0 against the overmatched Giants? Of course, but the idea that this team drew up London targets and that Penix executed was encouraging.
He had a two-yard score in his hands, and if he comes down with that pass, your impression of Week 16’s stat line changes in a significant way. I’m more optimistic this week in London than last week, and while most of that has to do with what Penix put on film in his first career game, it didn’t hurt to see A.J. Brown produce in a matchup across from Marshon Lattimore.
There’s risk in starting London, and that’s why he’s ranked as a mid-to-low WR2 for me this week, but I’m penciling in enough volume to make him playable in all formats.
Elijah Moore | CLE (vs. MIA)
I was more in on Elijah Moore last week than most, and I can assure you that I will not make that mistake in consecutive games. My thought process was that the short-yardage target in a low-octane offense could see enough high-percentage targets to return reasonable PPR value.
As it turns out, this offense has no “high-percentage targets” with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center. Moore has turned 11 targets into just 20 yards over the past two weeks and has found the end zone just twice in his past 24 games. There are many more paths to failure than success, and that’s not a math equation I’m comfortable backing.
Garrett Wilson | NYJ (at BUF)
Garrett Wilson is a tough read these days. In Week 15, he was used as a field stretcher (16.5 aDOT) next to a productive Davante Adams, but last weekend, also alongside a strong Adams game, his average depth of target was a mere 6.9 yards.
I’m choosing to read that in multiple ways. Most importantly, it confirms the hierarchy of this receiver room—New York wants to get Adams going and will give Wilson the remaining routes, putting him in a less advantageous spot.
That’s the bad. The good is that they are confident that he can fill a variety of roles and that Aaron Rodgers has thrown the ball his way 33 times so far in December. It was a different offense back in Week 6, but Wilson was responsible for 34.8% of New York’s receptions, and that’s not a bad thing, even if Adams wasn’t on the roster.
I’ve got Wilson sitting just outside of my top 20 at the position, ranking in the Brian Thomas Jr. and DeVonta Smith tier.
Jakobi Meyers | LV (at NO)
There is next to no room for error for Jakobi Meyers. Early in the season, I was fine with betting on that profile because his aDOT was low enough to ensure some level of efficiency, even with below-average quarterback play, but that hasn’t been the case lately.
- Weeks 1-12: 8.9 aDOT
- Weeks 13-16: 13.2 aDOT
We know that the quality of the target is always going to be low, so I’m not interested in introducing the variance that comes with extending routes in the Vegas passing game.
Meyers is a good player but not good enough for me to trust him with the fate of my team, even in a plus matchup.
Jalen Coker | CAR (at TB)
Since returning to action, Jalen Coker has played over 83% of the snaps in both of his games, and his counting numbers look fine in those games. However, don’t forget about the 83-yard touchdown against Dallas in Week 15.
Without that outlier play, one that you can’t count on in any offense, let alone this version of the Panthers, Coker has turned 10 targets into 35 yards. There might be a world in which he becomes Carolina’s slot receiver of the future and Bryce Young’s star ascends.
Might be.
You don’t have to bet on that to end this season. It won’t cost you much to speculate on him this summer, and there will be roster builds where I go in that direction, but that’s a strategic thing that we can dive further into once this season is in the books.
Jalen McMillan | TB (vs. CAR)
This is a safe space, right?
Is Jalen McMillan poised to be what we wanted Tank Dell to be?
That is, an explosive player that shows signs of promise as a rookie and parlays it into a weekly starter role in fantasy circles during Year 2?
McMillan has three straight games with at least four catches and a touchdown reception — over the past 20 years, only three rookies have topped that streak (Odell Beckham Jr., Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Tank Dell). There was an 11.6-point swing that took place late in the game last week where a potential 46-yard TD was wrestled away from him, but the 5-57-1 stat line was still plenty productive, and it’s clear that he has Baker Mayfield’s trust.
The Bucs are in need of a big performance, and if the shallow Panthers elect to blanket Mike Evans, a career day from McMillan is certainly within the range of outcomes.
Jalen Tolbert | DAL (at PHI)
Despite limited usage, Tolbert scored in consecutive weeks and has six on the season. His nose for the end zone might be a trait we circle back to in August, but in a Cooper Rush offense that involves a banged-up CeeDee Lamb, I have no interest in betting on this passing game in any capacity.
Dallas has been putting up some points in plus matchups lately, but this Eagles defense certainly isn’t one that I’m targeting, even after a disappointing Week 16 performance.
There are two Cowboys worth your while, but Tolbert isn’t one of them.
Jameson Williams | DET (at SF)
Jameson Williams is coming off his third top-10 finish of the season (Weeks 1, 11, and 16) and, more importantly, his sixth straight game with 10+ expected PPR points. That second number is the one that has my interest as we know that Williams is plenty capable of making the chunk plays and exceeding expectations, but the built-in value of his recent targets helps elevate his floor to a place where I’m comfortably Flexing him weekly.
Williams would have been an auto-fade for me earlier in the season in this spot. The 49ers are the second-best yards per deep pass attempt defense in the league, and I would have never thought of playing him in a spot like that. But now? Now I think there’s enough versatility in his profile to land him as a top-35 WR.
Jared Goff is as efficient as anyone in the league, and with designs a part of the plan for Williams, I’ll take my chances. The big-play potential is still very much there (just ask Chicago’s secondary), but with a single-digit aDOT in three of his past five, I think there’s more well-roundedness than this burner gets credit for.
Jauan Jennings| SF (vs. DET)
The 49ers made Week 16 the George Kittle and Deebo Samuel Sr. show, which I think has a decent chance to sustain this week. Thus, Jennings’ stock is at serious risk.
Last weekend in Miami, he earned just 16.2% of the targets, and with a low per-target upside role, that sort of decline in usage is a red flag. The fact that a slow day at the office came in a game where the 49ers were playing from behind also worries me, as that is expected to be the case with the Lions coming to town.
I think you can get away with playing Jennings this week, understanding that Samuel is going to be moved all over the place and that Brock Purdy is likely to throw another 35-40 passes, but I’d caution against thinking that there is much in the way of upside in this profile.
Jayden Reed | GB (at MIN)
Jayden Reed is my pick and has been among the top talent in Green Bay’s receiver room.
Jayden Reed isn’t a full-time player.
Sadly, both of those things are true. He’s reached a 61% snap share just once in his past six games, and that helps explain why he’s reached double digits in the expected PPR points column just twice since the middle of October.
Reed did pick apart Minnesota back in Week 4 to the tune of seven catches for 139 yards and a touchdown on eight looks, something that I’m comfortable reading into. The Vikings could adjust, but their league-leading blitz rate does leave them susceptible to well-executed quick-timing routes, something that Reed has proven plenty capable of (8.1 aDOT, 38.1 air yards per game).
I was hopeful he’d be a blind start at this point, but he’s not. He’s Adam Thielen but with better quarterback play and more target competition. I have both of those receivers ranked in the mid-30s as playable pieces but far from lineup locks.
Jaylen Waddle | MIA (at CLE)
Updated at 2:35 PM ET on Sunday, December 29
Waddle is inactive for today's game.
Jaylen Waddle seems to get dinged up consistently, and an ailing knee held him out of Week 16’s win. Malik Washington stepped into his role and gave Miami all of 28 yards, so I don’t think you’re at any risk of losing looks should he return to action.
This is a read-and-react situation for me. There’s a decent chance the Dolphins will be eliminated from playoff contention by kickoff, and that would obviously impact Waddle’s appeal should he get in some work in practice this week.
That said, IF he clears all medical hurdles and IF Miami remains alive in the playoff rate, I’ll be labeling Waddle as a top-35 receiver. He’s had plenty of bumps in his road this season, but in a matchup against a defense that allows the fourth-most YAC to the position and ranks dead last in both yards per attempt and per completion to the slot this season, there’s a path to viable PPR production.
Jerry Jeudy | CLE (vs. MIA)
Updated at 2:35 PM ET on Sunday, December 29
Jeudy is active for today's game.
Situations like this allow you to learn plenty about yourself as a fantasy manager.
Just how much risk are you willing to take on with all of the chips in the middle of the table?
My answer: not much. Jerry Jeudy had a nice run with Jameis Winston under center, but that’s kind of like saying that my exercise plan went great in the summer when it was nice out — it doesn’t matter right now.
This Dorian Thompson-Robinson-led offense doesn’t come preloaded with anything close to the upside of the Winston-led version but it carries all of the same downside. Jeudy managed just 20 yards last weekend in Cincinnati against one of the most forgiving secondaries in the league. Why would we expect him to flip the script now?
The Dolphins can be had down the field, though that doesn’t project to be a major issue against this now ultra-conservative offense. What Miami can do is get off the field on third downs (third-best in the league this season), and with Cleveland going 3-of-12 in those spots last week, forgive me if I think that the road team has every chance to control this game.
The Browns are going to struggle against anyone, and if their offense can’t stay on the field, I’m told that’s bad for business.
Jeudy resides in the Marvin Harrison Jr./Aam Thielen tier this week of WR1s for his NFL team that I’d rather not roll with for my fantasy team if possible.
Jordan Addison | MIN (vs. GB)
Over the past two weeks, none of Jordan Addison’s 12 catches have gained 20 yards (previously, in his career, one of every 4.2 receptions picked up 20 yards).
Sheesh, Kyle, talk about nitpicking.
It should be viewed as a badge of honor when I do something like that; it means that a player has produced at such a level that they deserve that sort of attention. Over his past six games, Addison has averaged 2.4 yards per route and produced 33.2% over fantasy expectations. He’s been phenomenal, which means he can be flexed with confidence this week.
In the Week 4 meeting with the Packers, he scored twice: once on a 29-yard pass in the first quarter and the other on a nice second-quarter run design. That was back in September, and the Vikings were scheming ways to get him involved. Given the recent run, they are only more motivated to feature him, and with the Packers traveling on a short week, I think you can feel just fine in riding this heater for another week.
Josh Downs | IND (at NYG)
There is nothing “safe” that comes with investing in the Colts’ passing game, but Josh Downs has looked the part of their WR1, and I’m operating under that assumption this week in ranking him as a top-30 option at the position.
He’s passed Michael Pittman Jr. as the slot receiver in this offense, a spot on the field where the Giants are vulnerable:
- 28th in completion percentage
- 31st in interception rate
- 31st in passer rating
The slot role doesn’t always come with per-target upside, and that’s even more true when the QB leading the offense is more throwing a bounce pass than a standard one, but Downs has been able to make the most of a difficult situation with a 20+ yard grab in four of his past five games (he had two of 27+ yards last week against the Titans).
I like Downs’ YAC skills, and his lack of size pigeonholes him into a reasonably safe role. Well, as safe a role as this offense has to offer. I’m likely to have Downs ranked higher than consensus next season – is he that much different moving forward than Jayden Reed or Zay Flowers?
Quarterback play is obviously the distinguishing characteristic in that comparison, but I’m not burying Richardson long-term just yet.
Justin Jefferson | MIN (vs. GB)
Jefferson is as good as it gets, and taking time out from a busy football weekend to watch this man work is something I’d recommend to any football fan. We saw him put together a 6-85-1 stat line (29.6% target share) in the Week 4 meeting with these Packers when they were at the peak of their powers in terms of opportunistic playmaking.
This unit is still solid, but Jefferson is as matchup-proof as anybody in the business, and I expect to get more evidence of that this weekend.
Jordan Addison is ascending quickly, and guess what? It doesn’t matter. In December, Jefferson produced 45.5% more points than expected on his targets. Is it possible that the small target volume of Addison’s breakout takes off Jefferson’s plate and is more than replaced by increased efficiency?
That’s a scary thought. There’s never a reason to be concerned about Jefferson — watch him play this week and start putting together what you think the first round of 2025 drafts is going to look like. Spoiler alert: There won’t be many names called before JJetta.
Keon Coleman | BUF (vs. NYJ)
Keon Coleman has been on the field for over 60% of Buffalo’s snaps in both of his games back from the wrist injury, and I’d never count out a player with a role like that in a Josh Allen-led offense. That said, there’s a wide gap between “counting a player out” and “actively making excuses to start.”
The Jets own the third-best per-play defense in the NFL this season and are the best unit when it comes to preventing deep touchdown passes (1% of such attempts; league average: 6.7%).
Keep reading, and you’ll understand further why I think this is more of a Khalil Shakir week for the Bills than anything, but that’s certainly part of it. Coleman is a talented kid with a bright future, I just don’t think the future is now for a team with Super Bowl aspirations. The rookie has caught just two passes on four targets (43 routes) since returning, production rates that aren’t worthy of Flex consideration in even deeper formats this week.
Khalil Shakir | BUF (vs. NYJ)
The vibes aren’t high for Khalil Shakir’s managers, but I’d encourage you to hang in there. Buffalo as a whole was out of sorts last week against the Patriots (Shakir: two catches for 22 yards), but the volume was better than you’d expect from a 22-yard outing (six targets), and we have plenty of proof that this is an efficient tandem you can feel fine about betting on.
Is it weird that I was somewhat encouraged by the usage last week? Obviously, the production wasn’t there, but it’s clear that he is the receiver Josh Allen trusts the most, and that trust extends downfield (season-high 106 air yards).
I don’t think Shakir is going to assume a vertical role in this offense consistently, but it’s good to see that he has a path to earning a few of those targets.
We had to survive a Shakir dud back in Week 6 when these two teams first met (two catches for 19 yards on an 8.7% target share), and that was without Amari Cooper on the roster. With Allen playing 4D chess these days, it’s always possible that we get a repeat performance where he spreads the love (six Bills had more PPR points through the air than Shakir in that first contest), but I’m not too worried about it.
Those deep targets are nice, but Shakir is always going to make his money in the short to intermediate passing game, and I think the Bills have a good chance to win there with regularity this week. The Jets are the only team in the NFL yet to intercept a pass that didn’t travel 15+ yards in the air, and the 2024 version of Allen is responsible with the football.
I know last week was tough to watch and that we’ve had two of those games in December—fear not. I like our chances of returning to that 12-15 PPR point range with the upside for more should Buffalo’s offense rediscover its form from Weeks 13-14.
Malik Nabers | NYG (vs. IND)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, December 29
Nabers is active for today's game.
There is no secret here — Malik Nabers will get weighed down with low-value targets, and you will throw (hopefully soft) objects around your living room as you pray for enough of them to connect and get you your 15+ PPR points.
It’s not a fun way to spend a Sunday, but you know the deal at this point. Nabers set the Giants’ record last week for rookie receptions in a season, and he’s checked every box you could ask for from a young player in terms of his individual profile, but this is a team game with more than a few moving pieces.
By a thread, Nabers is hanging on to top-20 status in my Week 17 rankings. The Colts aren’t a stout defense, but they are better than average in terms of opponent completion percentage on deep passes and intercept those attempts at the second-highest rate.
Michael Pittman Jr. | IND (at NYG)
Week 17 Status: PLAYING
This season has been a disaster for Michael Pittman Jr.’s managers; there are just no two ways about it. This summer, only 34 players, forget receivers, came off draft boards before him on average, something that is hard to fathom now that he hasn’t scored since mid-October and has failed to clear 50 yards in 10 of 14 games.
I’m not starting Pittman this week, and there’s realistically nothing he can do that would make me go this direction in Week 18 if your league extends that far. That said, if you’re reading this, you’re likely in a spot where you don’t have much of a choice, and I’m nothing if not a man of the people.
Pittman’s aDOT has been more than halved when comparing his past three games to his previous six, and that is the leg you have to stand on. Now, it’s possible he runs 20 crisp, short routes in this game, and Anthony Richardson misses him by 2-3 business days with the pass, but those layup targets are how he gets to 12-15 PPR points and becomes worthy of your trust.
Through 16 weeks, the G-men rank 26th in opponent completion percentage on those short throws (75.7%), giving Pittman managers a glimmer of hope that we can see something like the 6-58-0 line that he gave us two weeks ago in Denver of the 6-96-0 production last month against the Lions.
Mike Evans | TB (vs. CAR)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, December 29
Evans is active for today's game.
Evans has cleared 135 air yards in three of his past four games, and while the Jalen McMillan breakout seems to be here, it hasn’t done much to slow Tampa Bay’s WR1.
Evans has seen 14 end zone targets this season, the ninth time he’s hit that mark; he needs 182 yards over the next two weeks to lock in his 11th straight 1,000-yard campaign.
There are no concerns for this week as the Panthers allow deep touchdown passes at the fifth-highest rate and couldn’t slow Evans in the Week 13 meeting (8-118-1). In that contest, Baker Mayfield completed five of his eight deep passes, and with Evans being the favorite to be on the other end of those bombs, there’s a non-zero chance he gets to that 1,000-yard plateau by the end of the week.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | TEN (at JAX)
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine had the scoring run earlier in the season, and that was fun while it lasted.
Wait, no it wasn’t. Very few benefited from that binge run; if you’re a mathematically inclined person who writes about this stuff, you were forced to eat your words on a weekly basis.
Not fun. But the past three weeks have been more like it. Yeah, he scored last week, but with just 45 yards on 104 routes over that stretch, I feel vindicated when it comes to the process-based fading of NWI.
Westbrook-Ikhine has a career target rate of 13.7%, a number that is well below my threshold for getting any part of my interest.
Parker Washington | JAX (vs. TEN)
Parker Washington had a 100% catch rate last week, and that allowed him to eke his way into Flex viability in PPR formats, but how comfortable are you in betting on a perfect day at the office in a Mac Jones-led offense?
Washington’s target rate over the past three weeks sits at 12%, a number that isn’t even remotely close to being roster-worthy. If you’re betting on Jacksonville, you’re doing it in chasing Brian Thomas Jr.’s high ceiling. You’re not trying to grind your way to another 11.4 PPR points that come with a disastrous floor.
Romeo Doubs | GB (at MIN)
Romeo Doubs has a pair of two-touchdown games this season; if you’re comfortable in your ability to project those, come work for us!
I’m smart enough to know what I don’t know, and this is one of those things. Believe me, I’ve tried. The matchups in which he thrived were different and his role entering those big spots was different. Both big games came against the NFC West in lopsided Packer wins; if you believe in those trends, fine, but neither is in play this week.
I’ve had trust issues with every Packer pass catcher all season long, and Doubs (sub-20 % target rate for his career) has yet to prove himself as anything more than a dart throw.
A blind dart throw.
No thanks.
Terry McLaurin | WAS (vs. ATL)
What a difference a QB makes. Terry McLaurin’s on-field target share this season (20.7%) is essentially identical to last season (20.6%), but his production relative to the expectation of those looks has spiked from -4% to +44.3%).
With the Commanders rediscovering their potent form from earlier this season, you’re blessed with the opportunity to click McLaurin into your lineup. I think his lasting impact from this season will have nothing to do with him — it’ll be in fantasy managers attempting to unearth the next uber-talent who is a QB away from elite status.
Malik Nabers is going to be the layup answer, and that doesn’t make it wrong. That said, it doesn’t have to be a player with a rookie QB. Rome Odunze could check this box. Could Jerry Jeudy make a jump like this? Maybe Josh Downs?
Tim Patrick | DET (at SF)
The idea of Tim Patrick made some sense seven days ago, but now that we have a picture of what this offense will look like sans David Montgomery, there’s no reason to dig this deep.
Patrick scored three times in two games but was targeted just one time on his 21 routes against the Bears last week; Jared Goff instead loaded up his stars with looks (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Sam LaPorta accounted for 84.4% of Detroit’s targets last week).
Every week you should be speculating on players like Patrick — players with a role that has a path to expansion. If it doesn’t happen, you chalk it up and move on.
Tyreek Hill | MIA (at CLE)
Updated at 2:35 PM ET on Sunday, December 29
Hill is active for today's game.
Tyreek Hill hasn’t had a catch gaining more than 30 yards since Week 1 and has caught just five of 14 targets over the past two weeks after pulling in 10 of his 14 looks against the Jets in Week 14. We spent a first-round pick on him this summer, hoping for groundbreaking games — we aren’t even getting flashes of it these days.
The short touchdown last week was nice, a little sprint out that seems close to uncoverable if the defense isn’t 100% willing to sell out, and gives him five in his past seven games, but that’s allowing him to stay afloat for fantasy managers instead of dominate.
I doubt you have three receivers I’d rather play, but I suppose it’s not impossible. In theory, this is as good a spot as any to break out – the Browns have intercepted deep passes at the second-lowest rate this season, so why not try?
You’re playing Hill, even if it’s not as comfortable as we had hoped. There aren’t expected to be any weather issues, so I’ll refrain from spamming you with “Tua in the cold” numbers. I’ve already bet this game to go over the total; if I cash that ticket, I feel good about the position of all fantasy teams with Hill exposure.
Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG (vs. IND)
Wan’Dale Robinson was targeted with seven of Drew Lock’s first 16 targets and he finished with a season-high 12 looks against a questionable Falcons defense.
Gold! PPR managers who stuck their necks out for Robinson or DFS players who went this direction with their punt must have been thrilled. Right?
Wrong.
It took him 12 targets to get to 13.2 fantasy points, and without any real reason to think that this offense will turn around (this week or for the remainder of the decade at this rate), why invest? The Colts have their fair share of issues, but they are the sixth best at taking away YAC yards to opposing receivers (4.0 per catch); that is all I need to cross Robinson off of all my fantasy boards for Week 17.
Xavier Legette | CAR (at TB)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, December 29
Legette is active for today's game
Xavier Legette is going to be more than a fun accent and interesting eating habits, but not yet.
Throughout his last seven games played with fellow rook Jalen Coker active, he’s turned 156 routes into just 148 receiving yards. There were some interesting scoring metrics on him earlier this season, but those have evaporated lately. Over his last five games, he’s been targeted on just 10.3% of his red-zone routes.
Citing “Carolina red-zone trips” is an issue unto itself given the small nature of it, and if Legette’s share is underwhelming, there’s no real reason to hold onto him, even if his status were to swing in a positive direction (groin), something that Dave Canales seemed awfully non-committal on at Monday’s practice.
You can move on in redraft spots, but I’d keep his name in the back of your mind for 2025.