It’s Week 16, and for fantasy football leagues, it means it’s playoff time. You either win or go home — it’s as simple as that.
There are always plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant wide receiver in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 16 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Adam Thielen | CAR (vs. ARI)
Jalen Coker (quad) returned to action last week, and that means we are splitting a slot role that was fringe-worthy in the first place in terms of my confidence. If Bryce Young is going to develop, I’d expect a very well-thought-out plan of attack down the stretch of this season, something like what we saw on his first 10 passes last week:
- Jalen Coker: Three targets (two catches for 19 yards)
- Chuba Hubbard: Three targets (three catches for 16 yards)
- Xavier Legette: Two targets (two catches for seven yards)
- Thielen: Two targets (one catch for five yards)
I’m not confident at all in the hierarchy of targets in Carolina to close this season, nor am I confident in Young paying off those targets with fantasy points. I’d hang onto Thielen with a plus schedule the rest of the way, but I’m doing so with very little in the way of expectations.
A.J. Brown | PHI (at WAS)
A first-quarter touchdown?
A touchdown dance with Jalen Hurts?
After a week full of speculation, A.J. Brown seemed pretty happy with the passing game that he criticized (8-110-1 against the Steelers). He was clearly the focal point of this game plan (six targets on Hurts’ first 10 throws); while some of that might be a squeaky-wheel situation, I don’t think it’s a bad idea to feature a borderline unguardable physical specimen.
When all was said and done, the Eagles were ultra-impressive in their 27-13 win over the Steelers, and I don’t think it’s a mistake that they took down one of the league’s best defenses by funneling 74.2% of their targets to their two top receivers.
Saquon Barkley was banged up during this game, and that certainly changed the composition of this offense to a degree, but I saw enough to consider both receivers in Philly as viable options with Brown (32% target share in the Week 11 meeting with the Commanders) returning to WR1 status.
Alec Pierce | IND (vs. TEN)
Alec Pierce (head) was an early exit last week after a tough fall and his iffy status is more than enough to justify looking elsewhere. He’s largely unproven as a target earner and is playing in an offense with the most sporadic QB in the league.
The ability to stretch the field is a real skill, and if we know anything about Richardson, it’s that he has the arm to hit the end zone from anywhere. However, Pierce should be ignored in all season-long formats — he’s exactly the reason God created DFS.
Amari Cooper | BUF (vs. NE)
When the season concludes, I’ll run through all of the numbers and highlight some of the most impressive, quirky, or underwhelming nuggets from the season. I suspect that Amari Cooper, with Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid both at less than full strength, earning exactly zero targets (15 routes) in a game in which the Bills scored 48 points will be on the list.
I can’t really explain it other than saying that the Lions made a point of taking him away and that Josh Allen is playing at such an elite level that he simply opted to take the path of least resistance (114 receiving yards for Ty Johnson being as good an example as that as you’ll find).
Cooper has yet to make anywhere near the impact I thought he would when this trade went down; at this point, I’m done assuming any sort of ramp-up during the regular season. He’s yet to reach a 54% snap share with the Bills, and given the number of ways this offense can beat you (not to mention what could be a very run-heavy script as massive favorites with newfound one-seed life), Cooper is a shaky bet at best.
I have both him and Coleman ranked as WR4s this week, preferring the late-season peak of Jalen McMillan over both of them.
Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET (at CHI)
Amon-Ra St. Brown is five catches away from joining Larry Fitzgerald as the only two players with multiple seasons of 100 catches and 10 touchdowns within their first four NFL seasons. Part of the fun last week was a 66-yard score on a 3rd-and-17 play where you’d assume that the defense’s sole focus is on not letting St. Brown beat them.
But alas, the same way Steph Curry gets off triples, St. Brown vacuums in highly efficient targets. He was the only Lion to reach 50 receiving yards in the first meeting with the Bears, and his usage only figures to increase with David Montgomery (63.6% of the carries in that game) done for the season.
Brandin Cooks | DAL (vs. TB)
Brandin Cooks’ playing time is inching up, but he’s simply going to run out of time. We saw signs of decline last season; even if you think there is gas left in the tank, this Cooper Rush-led offense doesn’t have much of a path to accessing that.
In his seven appearances this season, Cooks is averaging just 0.69 yards per route — he’s well off of fantasy radars in all formats at this point.
Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX (at LV)
Brian Thomas Jr.’s accolades are going to pile up as we come down the stretch, and they started last week as he set the franchise record for receiving yards by a rookie. He passed Justin Blackmon for that mark — the hope is that his career is what we thought Blackmon would do.
It’s not hard to put his name on the short list of the most promising rookie WRs in recent memory. He is one of three rookie receivers to have four 5-85-1 games in his first season, joining Ja’Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown, two WRs who will be first-round fantasy picks with ease next season.
As for the quarterback issues, they aren’t there. OK, they are, obviously, but not at the level you expect. Thomas’ expected PPR points over his past five games have been trending in the exact direction you’d want: 4.7, 11.9, 18.0, 20.6, and 26.1.
He has plenty of confidence, lacks competition, and is looking to make a statement as his first professional season comes to an end. Oh, and he gets the Raiders defense that is without Maxx Crosby and on a short week.
On the fast track.
There are plenty of receivers who I am downgrading significantly due to their quarterback situation — Thomas is not one of them.
Calvin Ridley | TEN (at IND)
In the limited sample with Mason Rudolph this season, Calvin Ridley has as many targets as any two of his teammates combined, but the volume has been empty on all levels.
Titans pass-catchers production with Rudolph, 2024:
- Calvin Ridley: 38 targets, 20 catches, 284 yards, zero TDs
- Chig Okonkwo: 22 targets, 15 catches, 142 yards, zero TDs
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: 16 targets, 11 catches, 108 yards, three TDs
- Josh Whyle: 14 catches, 12 targets, 121 yards, one TD
- Tyler Boyd: 12 targets, nine catches, 84 yards, zero TDs
The tight end split is interesting if you’re trying to get exposure to this game to be different in a DFS setting, but outside of that, you’re fading all parts of this passing game. The problem here is that the least targeted players are the most fantasy-efficient — in a low-volume offense, that’s not going to cut it.
There are three big-play receivers this week working with backup QBs, and I have them ranked back-to-back-to-back in the low 40s at the position (Jerry Jeuy and Xavier Worthy being the other two).
Cedric Tillman | CLE (at CIN)
The Browns are “hopeful” that Cedric Tillman can return from a concussion that has resulted in three missed games, but I can’t imagine a situation in which you’re rolling the dice on a player like this in an offense that went from recklessly aggressive to mind-numbingly conservative with their change under center.
Tillman racked up 81 yards in the first meeting with the vulnerable Bengals, and we know this secondary can be had. That’s not the point. The point is that I’m not risking three months of hard work to reach the playoffs on a receiver who might hopefully be healthy in the WR3 role for an offense on a dead team and an underwhelming QB.
Other than that, I don’t have anything wrong with Tillman in Week 16.
CeeDee Lamb | DAL (vs. TB)
CeeDee Lamb has six games with at least a dozen targets this season — he joins 2023 CeeDee Lamb as the only Cowboy ever to do that in a season. He set the franchise record with seven such games a year ago and could match it this weekend if they are playing behind for the bulk of this game as is expected.
If you need tangible proof of what this sort of volume looks like, here are the passing plays in succession detailing how Dallas found paydirt on a second-quarter drive last week:
- A 20-yard pass to Lamb
- A 28-yard pass to Lamb
- A 14-yard TD to Lamb (nice adjustment on an end-zone target)
Lamb has been a top-15 receiver in four straight games. While this offense isn’t exactly high-powered, Cooper Rush is doing enough to keep his WR1 in the fantasy WR1 conversation.
Christian Watson | GB (vs. NO)
Christian Watson has just a pair of top-30 finishes this season; while the matchup isn’t prohibitive, he’s pretty clearly not viewed as a consistent threat by this offense (nine catches over the past four weeks).
That said, if you’re grasping for straws and/or have a player ruled out late on Sunday and are making a Monday night dart throw your backup plan, Watson does have a 35+ yard catch in each of his past three games. My fear isn’t his ability to exploit this secondary as much as it is Green Bay’s need for such a role as a double-digit point favorite.
Cooper Kupp | LAR (at NYJ)
We see elite-receiver tandems on occasion, but they are rare. There are instances in which, for a period of time, both alpha receivers are functioning at the peak of their powers, and we get something truly special.
But more often than not, one sees their stock rise while the other fades, making it only a matter of time until the narrative flips and the incumbent becomes the second read, the undercard, and the player whose name carries more weight than their production.
- 2003 with Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce
- 2009 with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin
- 2017 with Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson
There is a changing of the guard that is uncomfortable for the nostalgic and difficult to pinpoint at the moment. It’s much easier to do what I am doing here and find endpoints with 8-21 years of hindsight in my pocket.
Are we there in Los Angeles? Is Cooper Kupp now Robin to Puka Nacua’s Batman?
I’m not far from going there. I’m not making sweeping claims as a reaction off of Kupp’s second catch-less effort of his career. But the recent advanced profile paints a convincing picture and certainly has me believing that these two are ranked in different stratospheres entering 2025.
Before I get into the long-term analysis (hey, I have to provide value to everyone, not just those fortunate enough to still be chasing a 2024 title, right?), here’s why you should still be starting the veteran receiver.
On the whole, without segmenting certain predictive areas, Kupp’s metrics are still on par with last season, if not ahead. His productivity relative to expectations falls within the 5% margin for error, just like it did in 2023, while his PPR points per target (1.75) are eerily similar (1.73).
Kupp’s overall yards per route are up 12.8%. Like the examples listed above, the veteran WR1 doesn’t fall off a cliff by traditional standards, he’s just not what he was, and that’s where the deeper dive can shed some predictive light as we begin to think about 2025 values.
- First six games: 32.4% on-field target share and a 29% red-zone target rate
- Last four games: 25.5% on-field target share and an 8.3% red-zone target rate
In the snapshot of 2024, that’s a disturbing trend that is unlikely to reverse course as Nacua’s stock takes off, but it’s not the most damning. Think about the best four WRs in the sport.
Pause.
Do it and jot it down.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Nacua, Nico Collins, Justin Jefferson, and Ja’Marr Chase populated the majority of your list, if not all of it. Those also happen to be the top four names on the receiver leaderboard this season when it comes to yards per route run when their quarterback is under pressure.
That tracks, right? When a signal-caller is feeling the heat, he’s going to seek a comfort target, and why would he not go where he is most comfortable?
Kupp’s yards per route when his QB is pressured by season:
- 2021: 2.58 yards
- 2022: 2.05
- 2023: 1.80 (Nacua: 1.64)
- 2024: 0.74 (Nacua: 3.04)
Oh boy. Kupp has been falling down my preliminary 2025 rankings for a month now, and I’m officially worried — for next season. There’s enough meat on the statistical bone to go back to him this week and for as long as your 2024 extends after last Thursday’s airball.
However, write it in the notes section of your phone now: Kupp isn’t likely to be the price of admission next season.
Darius Slayton | NYG (at ATL)
Darius Slayton had a moment earlier in the season with Malik Nabers sidelined. However, that was ages ago, and it’s simply neglect if you’ve yet to rid your roster of him at this point.
That’s not me saying that Slayton is a bad player or not capable of making splash plays. He’s just not at all in a spot to mean much in our game.
Slayton hasn’t cleared 10 expected points since the beginning of November and has managed just five receptions of his 15 targets over the past month. To make my lineup at this point in the season, I need to be able to talk myself into passable quality and quantity in the target department.
I can’t get there in either regard for Slayton in this excuse of an offense.
Darnell Mooney | ATL (vs. NYG)
How does it feel to be a Darnell Mooney manager? It’s the full range of emotions. He’s basically like one of those sappy RomComs — you know the ups and downs are going to be a part of a ride that ultimately ends where you expected.
- There are only three receivers with more games of 85 receiving yards and a TD catch than Mooney this season (Ja’Marr Chase, A.J. Brown, and CeeDee Lamb)
- There are only three viable fantasy receivers with more games turning over 20 routes into under 30 receiving yards than Mooney this season (Elijah Moore, Xavier Worthy, and Deebo Samuel Sr.)
Over his past nine games, Mooney is averaging 3.7 catches with a touchdown reception once every 4.5 contests. During his four seasons in Chicago, he was good for 3.6 grabs per game with a TD once every 4.9 games. RomCom Mooney is ending his season exactly like we thought — it’s been a weird ride, but here we are, in a spot where, like in the preseason, we aren’t excited about counting on him.
Davante Adams | NYJ (vs. LAR)
It only took all season, but we FINALLY got the vintage version of Davante Adams that we’ve been starved for. The instances over the past 10 years in which a player had 190 receiving yards and multiple receiving touchdowns in a single half:
- Davante Adams on Sunday vs. the Jaguars
- Ja’Marr Chase in Week 10 vs. the Ravens
- Tyreek Hill in 2020 vs. the Bucs
- Odell Beckham Jr. in 2016 vs. the Ravens
The Week 15 performance was about as perfect as it gets. He even got you a bonus point — he had a touchdown correctly overturned (down at the one-yard line) and followed it up with a score on the next play, getting you two receptions and a score for the price of one!
Adams has seen six end-zone targets over his past five games and has seen at least 11 balls thrown his way in five of six. If you’ve managed to get to this point with Adams on your roster, you’re in a good spot.
You also have support. I have Adams in a dynasty league that is in the semifinals — let’s see if we can piece together a late-season run for the ages!
Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF (at MIA)
Deebo Samuel Sr. has 10 career games with 20+ routes run and under seven PPR points; Four of those instances have come in the past month. How, in three months, have we gone from “versatile weapon with an increased role expectation as a result of injuries” (if I didn’t write that exact sentence in September, I had to have come close) to “diva that is struggling even when prioritized by the coaching staff”?
I wish I had that answer for you. Despite being featured last week (three targets and a rush attempt on Brock Purdy’s first nine snaps under center), Samuel left us out to dry. Again.
Father Time can be an unforgiving soul, but Samuel is 28 years old and showed signs in the middle of this season that he still had “it.” During a four-game run, he posted three stat lines that featured a 30+ yard catch and at least three rush attempts.
But now here we are. Second-guessing any consideration of Samuel if you somehow have survived two straight scoreless months and five straight sub-25 receiving-yard games. The theoretical upside remains there, but nothing that he (or this team) is telling us suggests that he’s ready to break out of this funk.
When taking a look under the statistical hood of a fantasy asset, I look for signs of hope and settle if no such data presents itself. Generally speaking, I go in looking for something to hang my hat on, especially with a player who has seen his production trend in one direction without an obvious reason why.
Is Samuel leaving air yards on the field? That is, are there high-upside targets in his profile that just aren’t currently giving us much in the way of production?
Nope.
With the air yards lagging, maybe there is PPR upside to chase? While the deep shots might be a thing of the past, this tough-to-tackle commodity still carries upside if he’s an oft-targeted player, even if the passes aren’t thrown very deep.
Surely this has to be the case with the array of injuries that this team has dealt with.
Nope.
Samuel was an elite threat to do damage in scoring situations last season. Maybe he’s still getting those dangerous touches and just running cold on converting them?
Nope.
Samuel did drop what could have been a touchdown last week, and if he cashes that slant route in, the story is likely completely different. I understand that. But he didn’t, and it’s not.
You can chase the 2023 version of Samuel all you like and maybe you catch lightning in a bottle. It could happen.
But everything is trending in the wrong direction, and with the Dolphins posting a top-10 defense in terms of red-zone efficiency and pass-touchdown percentage, not to mention a recent spike in pressure rate (Samuel’s on-field target share when Purdy is pressured is down from 17.8% last season to 12.9% this year), this matchup doesn’t profile as the get-right spot you’re searching for.
Demarcus Robinson | LAR (at NYJ)
We were monitoring a shoulder injury for Demarcus Robinson early last week (DNP on Monday and Tuesday), but he ultimately suited up against the 49ers and filled his traditional role (Week 15: 78.6% snap share, 2024: 81.6%).
Having Robinson at close to full strength is nice, but it doesn’t matter. The Rams have won three straight games, and during that run, the Puka Nacua/Cooper Kupp tandem has vacuumed in 59.5% of the team’s targets; a crazy rate when you consider that there is a Kupp zero-catch effort in that sample.
Robinson had moments as a reasonable WR handcuff of sorts this season. But with both stars ahead of him currently healthy, there’s no reason to hold. This is a receiver who has played for three franchises over the past four years and could well again be on the move this summer.
Barring a featured role, Robinson won’t be a top-50 receiver for me next season.
DeMario Douglas | NE (at BUF)
DeMario Douglas has reached 70 receiving yards just once this season, but there is some very low PPR Flex appeal here if you’re in a deeper format. The fact that he has caught 85.7% of his targets over the past three games is a step in the right direction, but more importantly, the Bills want him to produce.
OK, so that may be a bit strong, but Buffalo encourages opponents to take their medicine with the short passes (lowest opponent aDOT this season). The Patriots have been trailing for 61.3% of their offensive snaps this season (seventh highest rate), thus putting a player like Douglas in position to potentially see 6-8 targets.
It won’t be exciting, but a cheap way to double-digit PPR points is certainly within the reasonable range of outcomes.
DeVonta Smith | PHI (at WAS)
Good offenses produce; great ones adapt.
DeVonta Smith is coming off his best game of the season (11-109-1 against the Steelers), and while the production is nice, I find the consistent role change as interesting as anything,
- Week 9 vs. Jaguars: 16.0 aDOT
- Week 10 at Cowboys: 13.3 aDOT
- Week 11 vs. Commanders: 8.2 aDOT
- Week 14 vs. Panthers: 6.8 aDOT
- Week 15 vs. Steelers: 5.5 aDOT
Sometimes we see a player fill a very different role for a week here or a matchup there, but this certainly seems like a conscious decision made by this coaching staff. Smith wasn’t good the first time these teams met (30.9% production under expectation), but if you believe that this team is working to introduce this new route structure, there’s reason to be optimistic.
While Jayden Reed, Deebo Samuel Sr., and DK Metcalf are seeing production trending away from them, Smith’s trajectory is more promising; that is why I’d play him over all of those receivers.
DJ Moore | CHI (vs. DET)
The Bears have dialed back DJ Moore’s route depth, and while that puts a cap on his ceiling (held without a 20-yard catch in five of his past seven games), Caleb Williams has proven capable of getting him the ball efficiently.
- Week 11 vs. Packers: Seven targets and a 100% catch rate
- Week 12 vs. Vikings: Seven targets, TD, and a 100% catch rate
- Week 13 at Lions: 16 targets and a TD
- Week 14 at 49ers: Eight targets and a 75% catch rate
- Week 15 at Vikings: Eight targets and a 100% catch rate
In PPR formats, I think you can Flex Moore with a reasonable level of confidence. The Bears are struggling to run the ball and figure to be playing from behind this week, a game script that should put enough volume at the feet of their WR1.
Moore was able to post a 44.4% target share on Thanksgiving in this matchup, a rate that I think has almost no chance of repeating. Much of those numbers came late with the Lions in a shell, and Detroit nearly blew the game — getting their hands on Moore figures to be a priority for all 60 minutes on Sunday.
Moore’s elevated floor makes him my favorite Bear receiver, and my projected pass volume for this offense lands him in the same tier with a completely different receiver on the other sideline in Jameson Williams.
DK Metcalf | SEA (vs. MIN)
DK Metcalf was on the field for 92.9% of Seattle’s snaps on Sunday night but saw just 27 air yards worth of targets, the second-lowest mark of his career. He’s been able to earn looks while Jaxon Smith-Njigba breaks out (6.5 targets per game over his past six), and in the past, that would be enough.
But, I’m not sure if you’ve heard, we live in the present, not the past.
Over that six-game run, Metcalf has been targeted on just 12.5% of his red-zone routes. For some context, he’s never had a season check in under 32% in that metric — this is where, historically, he’s paid the fantasy bills.
Geno Smith (he and Jameis Winston are tied for the most end-zone interceptions thrown this season with four — Smith had three in his career before this year) isn’t quite struggling like Kirk Cousins right now. In a vacuum, I’d take Metcalf over Drake London, but both of those receivers currently have a floor that I would have labeled as illogical two short months ago.
Smith’s knee injury should also be considered in this matchup, in which he is going to be asked to shift quickly. I’m not saying you bench Metcalf for any receiver on your bench with a pulse, but I’d be considering all options — he’s outside of my top 20 at the position this week, ranking alongside other struggling players like Jaylen Waddle and Deebo Samuel.
Dontayvion Wicks | GB (vs. NO)
Dontayvion Wicks has youth and athleticism on his side, something that cracks most lineups, but it’s just kind of the expectation in Green Bay these days. Wicks hasn’t run 25 routes in a game since September, and with Jordan Love being more sporadic than we anticipated, counting on him to support a receiver in this role is more optimistic than I’m willing to be.
Heck, I’m having trust issues with every player on Green Bay’s roster not named Josh Jacobs.
Wicks can be added for next week should a Packers receiver go down on Monday night, but outside of that, there’s no need to take on this risk.
Drake London | ATL (vs. NYG)
Drake London hauled in a 30-yard touchdown on Monday night, the longest pass (23 air yards) resulting in a score during his young career. It was a good thing he got on the board early — after another Kirk Cousins interception, the Falcons committed essentially to the football equivalent of the four-corners offense: 37 rush attempts against 17 passes.
Atlanta was able to get away with the game plan because of an inferior opponent, and while I don’t think that’s a sticky offensive game plan in 2024, it could last another week with the Falcons opening as a 10-point favorite against the Giants.
I expect this offensive structure to tank the value of Darnell Mooney more than London, but there’s no overlooking the risk that is present given Cousins’ struggles. London is currently a low-end WR2 for me this week, checking ahead of Brian Thomas Jr. — yes, I’m drawing the line at Mac Jones when it comes to QBs I trust more than Cousins right now.
Elijah Moore | CLE (at CIN)
DFS play of the week?
It’s possible. Elijah Moore is pretty clearly the underneath option in this Cleveland offense, and that role has spiked in value over the last two weeks.
First of all, the matchup. Cincinnati’s defense isn’t good nor are they even really trending in a great direction, but they are at least forcing the opposition to check down. Twice in the past three weeks, the Bengals have seen their opponent’s average depth of throw check in under 5.5 yards (through 12 weeks, they had an opponent aDOT under 6.4 yards just once).
The change under center also puts food on Moore’s plate. The food might not be fully cooked, but at least it’s there, and that gives him a chance to eat. Since the beginning of last season, the Browns have had three different quarterbacks appear in at least 10 games:
- Deshaun Watson: 81.4 passer rating, 3.1% TD rate, and 8.2 aDOT
- Jameis Winston: 80.6 passer rating, 4.4% TD rate, and 8.9 aDOT
- Thompson-Robinson: 42.6 passer rating, 0.7% TD rate, and 6.0 aDOT
Moore has been close to invisible in three of his past four games, and that could well be the case again this week, but I bumped him inside of my top 50 at the position (and on my DFS WR punt radar) on Tuesday when the quarterback change became official.
Garrett Wilson | NYJ (vs. LAR)
With Davante Adams breaking out last week, Garrett Wilson posted his first game this season with single-digit expected PPR points (9.7). Even if you think that all is right in New York, that Aaron Rodgers has found himself, and that the vintage connection with Adams is sticky for the short term, you’re still playing Wilson as a fine WR2.
In Adams’ last strong Packer season, Robert Tonyan caught 11 touchdown passes, and I’ve long said “What is Garrett Wilson but a rich man’s Robert Tonyan?”
It’s getting overlooked because of the historic second half from Adams, but Week 15 started with all three of Rodgers’ first-drive passes going in the direction of Wilson (41 yards, TD).
The Rams are a bottom-10 defense when it comes to defending the deep ball in yards per attempt, yards per completion, interception rate, and touchdown percentage — Wilson is in a position to make a single target or two count in a significant way if you’re fearing his overall volume.
I’m not sold on the Jets being a juggernaut, but I’m not benching either of their top receivers.
Jakobi Meyers | LV (vs. JAX)
You know we are deep into the NFL season when we are heartbroken when news breaks that Aidan O’Connell is inactive.
But, I mean, how bad could it really be?
As it turns out, worse than we could have imagined. Jakobi Meyers ended up with a fine stat line for boxscore watchers (10.9 PPR points), but this offense didn’t target a receiver in the first half.
You read that right. It doesn’t show a Meyers target or a receiver catch — no player designated as a “WR” on this roster was even looked at for the first 30 minutes.
There are a few of these situations where a bad offense is in a good spot (NYG at ATL, CLE at CIN, etc), and I’m generally betting against bad offenses with my season on the line. Maybe it’s fair, maybe it’s not, but in the middle of the season, I’m more likely to roll the dice on a profile like this than in December with my fate on the line.
Jalen Coker | CAR (vs. ARI)
Jalen Coker returned from a quad injury last week and took a pass 83 yards to the house to celebrate, fueling his second top-20 performance of his rookie season.
That play, naturally, was as much the result of mass confusion in Dallas’ secondary as anything, so I’d caution against reading too much into anything. It was Coker and Adam Thielen in two-receiver sets with Xavier Legette getting banged up, and that puts two similar skill sets in position to cannibalize one another.
With Bryce Young offering spotty QB play, I’d prefer to have the slot role locked up if I were going to venture into the Panthers’ waters. Both Coker and Thielen have shown the ability to win at that spot on the field, but last week, it was the veteran occupying that spot (71.4% of snaps) over the rookie (46.5%).
I remain interested in this team — I’ll save my exposure for next season.
Jalen McMillan | TB (at DAL)
I don’t want to say that the current Bucs are functioning at Week 1-2 Saints or peak Jameis Winston Cleveland levels, but we aren’t far, and Tampa Bay’s two primary receivers are dominating.
Since Mike Evans’ return from the hamstring injury, 63 receivers have seen at least 15 targets. Here are the leaders in PPR production over expectation over that stretch:
- Terry McLaurin: +73.7%
- Jalen McMillan: +60.5%
- Jerry Jeudy: +50.8%
- Mike Evans: +50.5%
I’m not comfortable in labeling the rookie as a must-start with your season on the line, but this is awfully good form and an awfully good matchup (Dallas has the worst red-zone defense in the NFL).
McMillan’s aDOT is down 26.2% over the past three weeks from his rate prior, and I think that actually adds to his appeal at this point — the deep role is Evans’, and that’s not going to change.
I’ve got Tampa Bay’s WR2 ranked as a low-end WR3 in this spot, putting McMillan on the Flex radar in deeper formats.
Jalen Tolbert | DAL (vs. TB)
Jalen Tolbert got on the board last week in Carolina, and that means you saw him while watching “NFL RedZone.” If you saw that one play, that means that you saw about as much of Tolbert as anyone watching a traditional feed.
For the first time this season, Tolbert was not on the field for the majority of Dallas’ offensive snaps and, for the sixth straight game, he failed to reach nine expected PPR points. I made the case to chase the WR2 for the Cowboys earlier this season as I was comfortable in counting out Brandin Cooks and wanted exposure to a Dak Prescott offense.
Cooper Rush isn’t Dak Prescott.
Dallas has been putting up some points in plus matchups of late, but the Bucs are allowing just 15 points per game during their four-game win streak; that level of production puts any secondary piece next to CeeDee Lamb in a near-impossible spot.
Ja’Marr Chase | CIN (vs. CLE)
Ja’Marr Chase is chasing the receiving triple crown and, with three weeks remaining, already has an elite stat line under his belt (102-1,413-15).
The only interesting note I can provide here that you’re not already aware of is this simple fact: the last time Chase was held out of the end zone was against the Raiders in a double-digit win — he went for a casual 11-264-3 stat line the next week.
I’m just sharing facts.
It’s also fun to note that the Browns have the highest opponent average depth of throw this season, half a yard ahead of the field. If there was ever a tandem to challenge them downfield …
Jameson Williams | DET (at CHI)
Jameson Williams was able to score in the shootout against the Bills last week, but three catches for 37 yards isn’t exactly encouraging. The recent involvement spike (20% on-field target share or better in five straight games before last week) was why we were Flexing Williams last week; while he ultimately got there, his 8.5% rate felt more like the rookie version of him than the flourishing option we had become accustomed to.
Don’t sweat it.
In this space last week, I highlighted Buffalo’s perimeter defense as one that could give Williams issues. I don’t say that to pseudo-victory lap, I say it to provide context for the underwhelming Week 15 profile, even if the fantasy point total was just fine.
No such worries present themselves in the Windy City this week against a Bears defense that allows the fifth-most yards per pass thrown outside of the numbers (BUF: fourth fewest). I found it interesting that Detroit used Williams in a unique way, by his standards, during the first meeting with Chicago (6.6 aDOT), something that showcases their confidence in his versatility.
This burner has been in the WR25-35 range in three of his past four games, and that is exactly where I have him ranked this weekend, understanding that we have to assume some risk with this offense taking its talents outdoors.
Jauan Jennings, WR| SF (at MIA)
I preached patience and process with Isaac Guerendo earlier and I’m going to go ahead and double down with his teammate in Jauan Jennings.
The two-catch, 31-yard performance was nightmare fuel for Jennings’ managers who had gotten 17.4 PPR points per game for the month prior, but these things happen from time to time. He saw nine targets in a plus-matchup as the featured member of a traditionally efficient offense – you take that profile to the bank most weeks.
Just because the dots didn’t connect on Thursday night doesn’t mean much to me given that the role proved stable. Of course, it means plenty if it knocked you out of your league’ playoffs, but you’re reading this piece because you still have something left to play for. In those spots, I don’t have any reservations about going back to Jennings.
Since Week 6, San Francisco’s WR1 is averaging one target every 3.5 routes run, a number that far exceeds what Brandon Aiyuk posted during his breakout 2023 season (4.2). The valuable looks are being earned at a strong level as well (16.1% of Jennings’ targets have come in the red zone and 10.3% in the end zone), giving me confidence that last week was a blip and not the start of a stock crash at the worst possible time.
You wouldn’t (I hope) refuse to show up for your wedding because your spouse left the toilet seat up or refused to take out the garbage the night before your big day, would you? That’s where I am with Jennings – I can overlook the transgression that was Week 15 in the hopes of a beautiful relationship moving forward.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA (vs. MIN)
It’s official. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has arrived.
You might assume that it is because he is WR4 on a per-game basis since Week 9 (21.4 PPG, ranking ahead of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Puka Nacua over that stretch). You might assume that it is because he has a touchdown or 10 catches in four of his past five games.
I’m not saying those reasons are wrong, they just aren’t right.
As you might assume, we watch a lot of sports in the Soppe household. To call my wife a passive observer would very much be underselling the word “passive,” but whatever, she’s there for a lot of it.
She can now properly pronounce Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
That’s a surefire sign of stardom. This happened years ago with Giannis Antetokounmpo and she’s gotten there with Shohei Ohtani. And now, Smith-Njigba.
During that Week 9-15 window mentioned above, JSN has an on-field target share that is 5.7 percentage points greater than that of DK Metcalf and a red-zone target rate that is nearly triple of Seattle’s former WR1.
Yea, I did it. I went there. This is the Smith-Njigba show, and I don’t see that changing against a defense that is going to force Geno Smith to make decisions in a hurry.
Jayden Reed | GB (vs. NO)
I can’t decide what I think of Jayden Reed, and I think it’s because the Packers can’t decide what they think of him.
He thrived in his first two games with Jordan Love this season and then teased us with a WR17 finish in Week 9 after a lull in usage. The man has just one top-30 finish since. It’s been a bumpy ride to say the least, but was last week the start of something?
Reed had three rush attempts in the one-sided win over the Seahawks (one more than he had in his previous five games combined) and caught 83.3% of his targets in that game (two games prior: 42.9%). After toying around with some exotic looks, Green Bay seems to be leaning into Reed as a gadget, get-in-space type. While I think he has the potential to be more than that, seeing them commit to something (anything!) would be glorious for his fantasy value.
Against Seattle, his six targets totalled two air yards. That may be a little extreme, but we saw him post-air-yard totals north of 75 yards earlier this year, making the conservative approach from Sunday night noteworthy.
Such a role, most assume, comes with a narrowing of outcomes — the targets are more efficient but, in large, less explosive situations. In most scenarios, I think that’s right, but against the third-worst defense in terms of YAC per reception allowed, I’d argue that supplementing a traditional running game with shuttle targets like this might actually be Reed’s cleanest path to a ceiling performance.
I rank for mean outcomes, so I’m not overweighting that upside case, but I do think there’s a logical argument for him to come through in a surprisingly big way. Reed, for me, is essentially Jaylen Waddle, but with a running game that subtracts from his target upside more than an alpha WR. Both Reed and Waddle are floating around WR30 in my current Week 16 rankings.
Jaylen Waddle | MIA (vs. SF)
Following a Week 15 loss in which Jaylen Waddle (knee) missed the second half, Mike McDaniel said his WR2 avoided disaster and is to be considered day-to-day.
That’s the good news, but Waddle always seems to be one misstep from his afternoon ending early. That has to be considered by fantasy managers. For the season, his target rate (both overall and inside of the red zone) are pacing for a career low. That puts a lot of pressure on the few opportunities he does get, and that’s a problem against the defense that allows the fourth-fewest yards per completion.
I find it unlikely that you advanced this far in your fantasy league by counting on Waddle in a significant way, but if that’s the case, this is a home game and that, traditionally, means you at least have a path to getting a positive return on your investment. Since the start of last season, Waddle has cleared 13 PPR points in a game nine times and eight of them have come in front of the Dolphins’ faithful fans.
He’s not a top-30 play for me and ranks alongside Marvin Harrison Jr. when it comes to talented receivers that I’m more comfortable benching than starting in my fantasy playoffs.
Jerry Jeudy | CLE (at CIN)
Jerry Jeudy has cleared 1,000 yards for the first time in his career, riding the Jameis Winston momentum to seven straight games with either 70 yards or a touchdown.
I like how that sounds and the fruit that it has given us recently, but reporting out of Cleveland has Dorian Thompson-Robinson taking over this offense. That introduces similar weekly risk without the benefit of the high-end ceiling.
DTR only has 146 NFL passes on his résumé, but a 6.0 career aDOT is downright problematic for a player like Jeudy that can win down the field. This change under center shook up my expectations for this passing game. I had Jeudy as the clear-cut top option with David Njoku (if active) a clear No. 2 and Elijah Moore a distant third.
Now, Njoku is a unique case because of the position he plays, and while I still prefer Jeudy to Moore, he’s no longer to be looked at as a lineup lock.
If you’re starting any Brown this week, it’s a play against the fourth-worst points-per-drive defense more than anything, and that’s a reasonable angle to take.
Jordan Addison | MIN (at SEA)
Jordan Addison is going to be the poster child for players like Rome Odunze and Xavier Worthy this offseason — rookie receivers who put good film out there before coming into their own during Year 2.
Here is the entire list of receivers with more than 40 targets since Week 11:
- Puka Nacua: 52 targets (130 routes)
- Jakobi Meyers: 51 (218)
- Ja’Marr Chase: 51 (180)
- Jerry Jeudy: 50 (213)
- CeeDee Lamb: 50 (174)
- Keenan Allen: 49 (201)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 49 (203)
- DJ Moore: 46 (207)
- Malik Nabers: 46 (168)
- Tyreek Hill: 44 (194)
- Jordan Addison: 44 (169)
- Brian Thomas Jr.: 43 (150)
- Davante Adams: 42 (150)
- Justin Jefferson: 42 (187)
I’m not suggesting that we have a WR committee in Minnesota or anything like that, but the ability to earn targets at effectively a St. Brown rate over an extended period of time while Jefferson is healthy is downright impressive.
It should be noted that Addison’s aDOT over that stretch trails only Jeudy of the names on that list. On the whole, I’d read that as a positive, as the ability to earn targets with that level of consistency downfield is even more difficult to do. However, the Seahawks focus on taking away those shot plays.
Through 15 weeks, Seattle owns the second-lowest opponent aDOT, which is why I have a little hesitation about locking in Addison ahead of a Ladd McConkey type with a safer floor.
The second-year star still ranks as a top-25 receiver for me and can be started in most spots. I just wanted to provide a little bit of context, as it is very possible that you have Addison rostered alongside a trio of stars.
Josh Downs | IND (vs. TEN)
Josh Downs used the Week 14 bye to heal up his shoulder (DNP in Week 13) and walked right into his standard role by playing 76.4% of Indianapolis’ offensive snaps with a 72.7% slot rate.
Downs can be as healthy as he wants to be, and for my money, he’s the best receiver in this offense. But it doesn’t matter if the quarterback can’t throw a stone into the ocean.
Let’s play a game. There are eight receivers this season with at least 50 targets who were drafted inside of the top 75 at the position this summer and have spent over 60% of their time in the slot. Below are their catch rates:
- Player A: 80.7%
- Player B: 80.6%
- Player C: 75.4%
- Player D: 75.3%
- Player E: 74.6%
- Player F: 71.6%
- Player G: 67%
- Player H: 65.1%
Have your guesses?
I’ll buy you a little scroll time. These slot targets are supposed to be the easy-button options, the layup targets, the ones the defense is more willing to give up than the deep ball over the top.
Downs was able to parlay this role into a 7-66-1 stat line on a 25% target share in the first meeting with the Titans, numbers that came from Joe Flacco.
That’s not the world we are currently living in.
How many did you get right?
- Player A: Khalil Shakir
- Player B: Chris Godwin
- Player C: Jayden Reed
- Player D: DeMario Douglas
- Player E: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Player F: Ladd McConkey
- Player G: Cooper Kupp
- Player H: Josh Downs
The point is that you can be as big a Downs fan as you want to be and still not feel great about Flexing him this week with your season on the line. I have him ranked in the same tier as the struggling Deebo Samuel Sr. and Tank Dell.
Justin Jefferson | MIN (at SEA)
For the second time this season, Justin Jefferson has caught at least seven passes in three straight games. We’d also be looking at consecutive multi-TD games if he didn’t put a 30-yard touchdown on the ground last week.
There’s a lot of talk these days as to who the best receiver is in the NFL. Jefferson seemed to have that title coming into the year, but the narrative has shifted, with some favoring Ja’Marr Chase.
I don’t have a strong take in either direction, but I will say that you need to dig deeper than raw box-score numbers. Comparing Chase’s fourth season with a QB with whom he shared a college locker room with to Jefferson’s first in an offense led by a quarterback that the NFL was close to giving up on just isn’t an apples-to-apples situation.
Keenan Allen | CHI (vs. DET)
Without four scores in four games, Keenan Allen is reminding us to not only bet on rookie development with time, but the pieces they touch. Caleb Williams obviously hasn’t had a banner year, but there are some signs weekly that he has potential, and recently, it’s benefited Allen.
Of course, that coin has two sides. Allen posted a season-high 155 air yards on Monday, his sixth triple-digit air-yard performance this season. He also has four sub-50 air-yard showings. The 22.2% target share that he earned in the Week 13 loss to the Lions wasn’t overwhelming, but the 5-73-2 stat line certainly was useful.
Much of that production came with Chicago in panic/chase mode, and we should see plenty of that again on Sunday.
If we’re being honest, I don’t have a ton of confidence in any Bears receiver. However, I would consider all of them if I had them on a semifinal team in a similar vein as the Colts’ receivers who also lack consistent play under center.
Kendrick Bourne | NE (at BUF)
Kendrick Bourne has caught every pass thrown his way in three of his past four games. The small sample size of his 2024 season with Drake Maye is encouraging, but it’s not nearly enough to put him on fantasy radars.
I’m not betting on the Patriots’ offense if I can avoid it, but if I am going that avenue, it’s going to be in the middle of the field where the Bills funnel opposing pass games. Maybe Bourne will play a part in Maye’s long-term development, but we don’t need to worry about that right now.
Keon Coleman | BUF (vs. NE)
After four straight DNPs due to a wrist injury, Keon Coleman returned to action on Sunday and assumed a reasonable role (63.2% snap share, down a touch from his 69.3% pre-injury). He only earned two targets on those 20 routes, but in an offense like Buffalo’s, quality of looks can help offset a lack of quantity.
- 51 air yards
- 64 yards gained
One catch, and he finishes the week with more points than Josh Downs, Tank Dell, Rome Odunze, and DK Metcalf. That, of course, is not always going to be the case, but the quality of QB makes a huge difference this time of year as I piece together my Flex rankings.
Would I rather play Coleman with Josh Allen in a desperate situation or hope that we land on a seemingly random Nick Westbrook-Ikhine week in Tennessee or Alec Pierce in a similar role with the Colts?
I’m not looking to play Coleman until next season, but you could do worse if the QB injuries have forced you into uncomfortable spots (starting Coleman over Xavier Worthy is on the table should Patrick Mahomes be officially ruled out). The matchup isn’t prohibitive as the Patriots own the seventh-highest opponent aDOT this season.
Khalil Shakir | BUF (vs. NE)
I’ve now written this article for 34 consecutive regular-season weeks here at PFN, and I imagine that I’ve used an assortment of like five clichés to refer to Khalil Shakir’s fantasy outlook in each one of those pieces.
“Slot machine”
“Easy button”
“Layup targets”
You get the idea. Clichés can be corny, but that doesn’t mean they are inaccurate. I stand by all of it and will likely recycle those terms next week, during the playoffs, and in Week 6 of next season.
With four top-25 finishes over his past five games, Shakir is as solid as it gets. We saw the long touchdown in Week 14 (51 yards), and he followed it up with a six-catch game where not a single one of his receptions gained more than 10 yards. In theory, that sounds like a weakness, but when a game like that pops up, he catches north of 80% of his targets and still carries scoring equity because this Buffalo offense lives near the goal line.
I truly think that a fantasy team with three Shakir types (Ladd McConkey, Zay Flowers, Jayden Reed, etc.) would win at a very high rate if surrounded with even ordinary talent.
Put a pin in that idea for now, I’ll prove it this offseason.
Malik Nabers | NYG (at ATL)
Science has their nature/nurture debates. We, as fantasy managers who deal with similarly important arguments, have fought with the talent/situation thing for years now. I don’t think we have any more clarity today than we did at the beginning of the season.
I was firmly in the “I’ll be a year late on Malik Nabers instead of investing at the peak levels of excitement” camp. Have I been right? Wrong? Neither?
Despite being targeted 10+ times in six of his past seven games, Malik Nabers doesn’t have a 100-yard game since September. Over that stretch, on a per-game basis, he ranks no worse than seventh in routes, targets, and catches. Yet, he has only a single weekly finish better than WR24 during that run.
All of that work and Devaughn Vele has more finishes inside the top 24 producers at the position. All due respect to the Vele family, but come on.
Nabers’ production with Daniel Jones, 2024:
- 1.5 fantasy points per target
- 2.2 yards per route
- 10.5 aDOT
- 33% on-field target share
Nabers’ production without Daniel Jones in Week 15:
- 1.3 fantasy points per target
- 1.8 yards per route
- 8.8 aDOT
- 29.1% on-field target share
As a collective, the Giants are averaging 5.7 yards per pass this season. That puts them on track to post the fourth-worst rate over the past decade. I see no reason to think it improves in a meaningful way over the final few weeks.
In the rare instances that New York threatens, Nabers gets the dangerous looks. He checks literally every box you could ask and it really hasn’t mattered. I could tell you that the Falcons are a bottom-two defense in sack rate, pass touchdown percentage, and completion rate, but why would I trust this Giants offense to pay off this good spot?
You’re going to start him and bet on his talent, something I understand. I have Nabers ranked as a low-end WR2, understanding that he isn’t the only strong receiver with QB issues (Jerry Jeudy and Brian Thomas feel a similar pain).
But I ask you — was my preseason take on Nabers right?
Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI (at CAR)
Marvin Harrison Jr. has 28 catches for 349 yards and three touchdowns in quarters 2-4 this season. If you extend those 42 quarters for a full season — 46 catches for 565 yards and five touchdowns. That’s essentially the stat line Chris Godwin posted in seven games before his season ended (50-576-5).
How crazy is that?
This summer, we assumed that this would be a marriage between quantity of targets, quality of opportunity, and elite pedigree. Heck, through September we believed that to be the case, but it hasn’t come close to panning out.
Harrison has one game this season with more than five receptions and is not one of the 186 players (entering Week 16) with a catch gaining more than 25 yards since Week 3.
- Josh Whyle
- Simi Fehoko
- Miles Sanders
Those are just some of the names on that list. Obviously, nothing about this matchup should scare you (CAR: highest TD pass rate allowed), but everything about how Arizona is using its supposed generational talent should.
I have Harrison sitting as nothing more than an ordinary WR3, preferring Jakobi Meyers (vs. JAX) to him.
Michael Pittman Jr. | IND (vs. TEN)
Michael Pittman Jr.’s fantasy profile has changed this season in a major way. He has sacrificed target share (on-field rate is down from 27.5% last season to 22.8% this year) for an increase in depth (8.1 up to 11.1). It hasn’t worked — he’s turned 27 deep targets into just 28.3 PPR points.
In theory, any Anthony Richardson-led offense comes with a wide range of outcomes. Some are positive, but without a single top-15 performance this season, is the risk worth it?
I approach any Richardson game with the hope for a high possession count, understanding that there will be wasted drives, and it’s hard to feel good about that count this week against the second-slowest-moving offense in the NFL.
Pittman was a lock starter for most when we opened the season, but now, he’s not even a top-40 guy.
Michael Wilson | ARI (at CAR)
I hate to admit it because I still think there is a fantasy asset in this profile, but based on usage, there’s no real reason to go to Michael Wilson this week, even if you like seeing the “at CAR” label in your Flex spot.
We don’t have concrete proof that Wilson is a target elevator, which mean he needs volume – and that’s not happening.
Wilson has cleared 6.5 expected PPR points in just one of his past six games, a low bar to struggle to reach. There is spike-play upside in his skill set, but Arizona’s offense as a whole has struggled to give us consistent production, and it’s buried their young receiver.
Since Week 3, the Cardinals are 3-0 against the AFC East (29.7 points per game) and 3-6 against the rest of the NFL (17.3). That’s not a predictive stat by any means, but it’s one that helps me communicate my lack of trust in this offensive environment as a whole, so I’m dropping it here.
And to answer your next question — yes, I’ll probably talk myself back into Wilson this summer.
Mike Evans | TB (at DAL)
Mike Evans absorbed 42.3% of the targets last week and now needs 83.7 receiving yards per game to close the season to again get to 1,000. The narrative of him chasing that number is fun to track, but that’s secondary right now with the Bucs unbeaten since their Week 11 bye.
Evans has cleared a 28% on-field target share in four of his past five games, a level of involvement that ranks among the very best in the sport. With Baker Mayfield playing as well as he ever has, you should be loving the ability to walk into your Week 16 matchup with Evans facing a defense that allows a touchdown on 26.7% of drives (fourth-highest).
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | TEN (at IND)
Don’t you love it when regression works the way it’s supposed to?
No? Just me?
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine was scoring once every 4.8 targets for over two months, and I don’t think I ranked him as a top-40 option once.
No…I know I didn’t. And I was wrong plenty. I went the other way in just about every question that came in on Twitter, and I’m sure I cost some people some matchups.
But water has finally begun to find its level.
There have been a few misses, I’ll give you that. Westbrook-Ikhine’s role near the goal line is certainly noteworthy, but nothing in this profile outside of a crazy scoring spurt requires our attention — and that includes the offensive environment as a whole.
Westbrook-Ikhine has not been a top-60 receiver in consecutive games and safely, again, ranks well outside of my Flex tier this week. He earned just two targets in the first meeting with the Colts (Week 6), one of which, of course, was a score. If you want to chase that, go ahead. It’s not for me and never will be.
Noah Brown | WAS (vs. PHI)
We knew that there was a rib injury to track with Noah Brown, but news emerged late last week that this situation turned into a lacerated kidney, a development that landed him on injured reserve.
Our search for a WR2 next to Terry McLaurin forges on – Brown is done for the regular season and that means he can safely be dropped in all redraft formats for any warm body.
Parker Washington | JAX (at LV)
Parker Washington lit up the Texans in Week 13 to the tune of 103 yards and a score on 12 targets, but he’s been an afterthought since. Despite playing plenty (77 routes), he’s hauled in just five passes for 69 yards over the past two weeks.
I’m not comfortable in assuming quality from this Jaguars passing game, and while Washington has shown capable of making plays on occasion, a 12.9% career on-field target share isn’t nearly enough to overcome Mac Jones’ struggles.
It’s Brian Thomas Jr. and (if you’re desperate) Brenton Strange in Jacksonville. That’s it, even in this advantageous matchup against a Raiders team that played on Monday night.
Puka Nacua | LAR (at NYJ)
Nacua Matata, it means no worries. Puka Nacua entered this season with high expectations after a historic rookie season, and I’ll admit it, I was one of the skeptics. Not that he wasn’t talented, but that he’d have trouble establishing himself as an elite asset alongside of a healthy Cooper Kupp, something that wasn’t the case when he debuted a season ago.
Wrong, wrong, wrong.
As an encore to his massive rookie season, Nacua is averaging 6.1% more PPR points per target this season and has thrown his name in the ring for 1.01 consideration this summer.
Sheesh!
Try this on for size. Over his last five games, Nacua has earned 52 targets on 130 routes. In 2023, he ran 571 routes – if you transposed his recent target per route number over that full season total, we’d be looking at 228.4 targets; if you assign his career catch rate to that figure, a record-breaking 156 receptions.
That’s just a creative way to get to the point you’re already well aware of – this dude is a difference-maker of the highest order. The dead Jets gave up over 20 PPR points to both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle the last time they faced a reliable pocket passer.
To say they don’t have an answer for Nacua would be an understatement. Look for your WR1 to clear 95 receiving yards or score for a seventh straight game and give you every chance imaginable to advance in your playoff bracket.
Rome Odunze | CHI (vs. DET)
Much like fellow rookie Xavier Worthy, it’s easy to like the direction the stock of Rome Odunze is heading. The target and expected point numbers are trending up, putting him in position to be a big hit next season.
Could that “big hit” happen this week? I’m not betting on it, but I’m not ruling it out. Odunze was able to uncover in the end zone last week, and if Caleb Williams doesn’t air mail the 12-yard pass, maybe there’s more momentum behind the rookie for this week.
It should be noted that Odunze was shut down in the Thanksgiving game against Detroit. He caught just two passes and averaged a mere 0.75 PPR points per target while Chicago’s two receivers next to him combined to score 2.0 PPR points per look that week.
But if we are evaluating boom/bust options, why not? Detroit has the second-highest opponent aDOT this season, in large part to game scripts, something that I expect to be at play in this spot as the Lions look to rebound from the Week 15 loss to the Bills.
When looking at the Bears’ receiver trio, here’s the breakdown in terms of target and air-yard share:
- Rome Odunze: 29.6% of targets, 40.5% of air yards
- Keenan Allen: 32.7% of targets, 32.2% of air yards
- DJ Moore: 37.7% of targets, 27.3% of air yards
Odunze is sitting around WR40 for me this week, ranking ahead of the hot Keenan Allen and ahead of other deep options like Quentin Johnston and Christian Watson.
Romeo Doubs | GB (vs. NO)
Romeo Doubs missed a pair of games while in concussion protocol, but cleared all needed hurdles ahead of last week and showed out once he was let back on the field.
The Packers showed no hesitation in rolling him out there as usual (Week 15: 75.4% snap share, 2024: 77.2%) and were rewarded in a big way. Doubs earned five targets on his 25 routes, producing 19 PPR fantasy points and a game-sealing score in the process.
We now have a sample size north of 800 routes from Doubs, and he’s sitting at a production rate of +7.7%. I’m not suggesting that he’s a bonafide star, but it’s clear that Doubs has Jordan Love’s trust in scoring situations. Given the strong expectations for the Packers on Monday night, he’s a fine Flex option for managers in search of upside.
Things are pretty cut and dry these days in Green Bay’s passing game. That, of course, doesn’t mean the production is easy to forecast, but we at least know who is responsible for what.
Packers’ Week 15 participation rates, 2024:
- Tucker Kraft: 88.5% snaps, two targets, 25 air yards
- Christian Watson: 77% snaps, six targets, 95 air yards
- Romeo Doubs: 75.4% snaps, five targets, 88 air yards
- Jayden Reed: 60.7% snaps, six targets, two air yards
- Dontayvion Wicks: 45.9% snaps, two targets, three air yards
I don’t love this matchup for the deep threats (New Orleans ranks top five against long passes in passer rating, completion percentage, and yards per attempt), but this offense as a whole carries scoring equity this week.
That makes a player like Doubs at least worth considering for your lineup and, at the very least, worthy of rostering so that your opponent doesn’t get cheap access to an offense that could put 30 points on the board again.
Tee Higgins | CIN (vs. CLE)
Tee Higgins has nine touchdown catches in his past 12 regular-season games (6+ in four of his five NFL seasons). My guess is that may come as a bit of a surprise because it’s been a bumpy ride with a no-show in Week 14 on prime time, five DNPs this season, and Ja’Marr Chase’s excellence.
For the most part, when Higgins has been on the field for his career, he’s been excellent. I don’t expect that to change this weekend against a Cleveland team that he earned one-third of the targets against (4-82-1 stat line) back in Week 7.
I have Higgins as a lineup lock without any thought, given how well Burrow is playing. He stands to move inside of my top 15 should the Browns name Jameis Winston as their starter this week.
Yep, the rare “WR whose fantasy stock is impacted by the opposing QB” situation based on projected game environment.
Terry McLaurin | WAS (vs. PHI)
Last week, Terry McLaurin became the first Washington receiver with a double-digit touchdown season since Gary Clark (1991), and he added a second score for good measure. That gives McLaurin three multi-score efforts this season — the first three such games by a Commanders receiver this millennium.
McLaurin has been even better than you want to give him credit for. I understand if looking at his career stats send regression chills down your spine, but I’d encourage you to fight that reflex. Sure, he has two more touchdown catches this season on 92 targets than he had on 252 over the two seasons prior, but all the math changed with a new coaching staff and rookie QB.
When the facts change, we change. That should be a life lesson, but, at the very least, something that you follow for fantasy.
Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams, Mike Evans, and Stefon Diggs. Those were the only players to join McLaurin on the list of players with 1,000 receiving yards in every season from 2020-23. Without any context, that’s an impressive list, but when you consider Washington’s team passing ranks over that stretch, McLaurin’s production feels like a minor miracle.
- 26th in touchdown rate
- 28th in yards per attempt
- 28th in passer rating
- 29th in yards per completion
You’re playing McLaurin this week. He’s earned the “matchup proof” tag at this point (miss me with the “he only earned two targets on 29 routes in the first meeting” narrative). Enjoy the ride now — McLaurin will be considerably more expensive this August than last.
Tim Patrick | DET (at CHI)
We got the early season J.K. Dobbins run, and this Tim Patrick string of production might well be the receiver equivalent when it comes to an injury-prone player finally shining.
How can you not root for Patrick?
He’s been a top-40 fantasy option in three of his past four games. While that may seem like a low bar to clear, this is the time of year where you’re willing to take some creative chances.
His superman dive into the end zone after uncovering during a Jared Goff scramble last week was impressive. Not that I’m banking on broken plays to be all that common in this timing-based offense, but the non-verbal communication was good to see, especially when you factor in the potential impact of the David Montgomery injury.
Through 15 weeks, the Lions rank ninth in rush rate over expectation, a rate that might be even higher if not for a few very lopsided games where it was borderline impossible to rush at a level over expectation. The Bears have their issues, but they are the third-best red-zone defense in the NFL. If Detroit can’t pound the ball with success when they inevitably get inside the 20, could Patrick punch in a score for a third straight week?
I wouldn’t get over your skis here, but he’s at least worth rostering at this point while you wait for final injury reports. I like this spot for him more than a low-upside receiver like Wan’Dale Robinson or highly variant options like Xavier Worthy or Nick Westbrook-Ikhine.
Tyler Lockett | SEA (vs. MIN)
The Seahawks often play in the late window, and that opens me up to seeing a higher percentage of their offensive snaps than an East Coast team that routinely plays in that crowded first wave of games.
I watch games with an advanced database in front of me, one that deprioritizes standard stats in favor of more detailed metrics. I love it, but as a result, I can lose track of the counting numbers in-game. It feels like, more weeks than not, Tyler Lockett will make an impactful play that grades out well and it sticks out in my mind. I think he’s still a reasonable piece to have on an NFL offense. But the target-earning abilities are all but gone, and we are in the business of chasing volume.
Lockett doesn’t have a five-target game on his résumé since mid-October, and Week 9 was his last top-65 PPR finish. He might make a play or two this weekend against an aggressive Vikings defense that is likely to put him in single coverage, but you’re asking for far too much if you’re considering him as a worthwhile Flex option.
This is a DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba-led passing attack that doesn’t have the desire to get a third party involved consistently.
Tyreek Hill | MIA (vs. SF)
All the vibes in Miami were good entering last week and then — nothing. Tyreek Hill was held without a catch in the first half of the loss to the Texans and posted his ninth finish this season outside of the 30 most valuable PPR receivers.
It obviously has been a far-from-ideal season situationally and burning an age-30 season is a problem. This offseason, we will be forced to determine if there was physical decline in Hill’s game, something that will be challenging given the limitations of this offense and an injury that has lingered.
That’s a problem for another day. When it comes to this week, however, I think your opinion of Hill hinges on how you think this game plays out. The Dolphins are home favorites and that’s never a bad place to start.
If you’re on board with them winning this game, your confidence should elevate him a good amount. This season, Hill’s aDOT is 16.1% lower when Miami is playing with a lead than when they are trailing, a trend I’m OK with weighing heavily in this matchup against the defense that ranks 18th in preventing YAC this season (17th over the past four weeks if you’re more concerned about recent form).
The Dolphins have a 24-point projection, and with Jaylen Waddle at less than full strength, you’re starting Hill.
I just provided that context to give you a little encouragement because who couldn’t use more of that this time of year?
Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG (at ATL)
Wan’Dale Robinson is a valuable piece in the right situation. To be maximized in the scope of the NFL, he needs to play with a quarterback that garners downfield respect. For fantasy purposes, he needs that in addition to being on a team with at least average scoring expectations.
Neither is the case for the current version of the New York Giants.
Week 5 was Robinson’s last top-30 finish, and it’s pretty difficult to see that changing any time soon. I believe in his ability to win with a quick route, but that’s kind of like being the best barber in a town full of bald people — does it really matter?
Robinson is the type of player I hold on my roster as a bye-week filler, situations in which I’m OK with a limited ceiling and will chase 10 PPR points. There’s a time for that, it’s just not the fantasy playoffs.
Xavier Legette | CAR (vs. ARI)
Xavier Legette is going to be more than a fun accent and interesting eating habits, but not yet.
Over the course of his last seven games played with fellow rook Jalen Cooker active, he’s turned 156 routes into just 148 receiving yards. There were some interesting scoring metrics on him earlier this season, but those have evaporated lately. Over his last five games, he’s been targeted on just 10.3% of his red-zone routes.
Citing “Carolina red-zone trips” is an issue unto itself given the small nature of it, and if Legette’s share is underwhelming, there’s no real reason to hold onto him, even if his status were to swing in a positive direction (groin).
