The 2023 NFL Draft was sure to bring surprises, but there was one that no one saw coming. As Day 1 came to an end, Kentucky quarterback Will Levis remained in the green room as the only quarterback attendee who hadn’t heard his name called.
We dive into why Levis fell out of the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft and what that means for the controversial prospect.
Why Will Levis Fell Out of the First Round of the 2023 NFL Draft
It’s not unusual for mock drafters and pundits to be optimistic when it comes to projecting where quarterbacks will be drafted. As the draft neared, Levis’ betting odds to become the second or fourth overall pick ballooned to favorite status. Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker, who will be 25 as a rookie and is coming off a torn ACL, was shockingly favored to be a first-rounder as well.
The market was clearly off for both quarterbacks as the NFL found both prospects to be problematic.
The NFL has routinely reached for mediocre quarterbacks over the last decade, desiring the flexibility of the fifth-year option that comes with first-round picks. Levis wasn’t a worse prospect than Kenny Pickett, Mac Jones, Jordan Love, Daniel Jones, and Josh Rosen, but the decision to punt on Levis may have marked a turning point.
Just like how teams have accepted smaller-stature quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and now Bryce Young, maybe they’re rejecting passers with significant accuracy and decision-making issues.
Of course, Levis wasn’t alone in having the occasional errant pass in this class. Anthony Richardson infamously had an abysmal completion rate of 53.8% in 2022 but still went fourth overall. But the context to both of their experiences and those numbers matter, even if Levis completed 65.7% of his attempts over two years at Kentucky.
However, Richardson is an all-time athlete at the position, whereas Levis is a decent athlete with a strong arm and lacks touch. It couldn’t have helped Levis’ case that he had his two worst games against Richardson and Hooker in 2022. There were times when Levis just looked like another guy with a big arm.
His body composition could also be a concern. Levis shared photos of a dramatic body transformation where he clearly added a significant amount of muscle in the offseason, which is abnormal for a quarterback to be so tightly wound and large. It’s reminiscent of when former Buccaneers and Raiders head coach Jon Gruden criticized former Cleveland Browns quarterback Brady Quinn for being too large to be consistently accurate.
Regardless of the reason, Levis is now in a tough predicament. As Day 2 gets started, there are a handful of teams that could be good fits for Levis to develop. But history doesn’t bode well for him to find success any time soon. The NFL has largely abandoned the idea that quarterbacks taken after Round 1 can be developed.
This has been especially true of second-round selections. Once considered a prime spot to take a player with some limitations but a good set of traits, we’ve seen only five second-round QBs drafted since the 2015 NFL Draft. The only hit amongst those players? Jalen Hurts.
It’s possible that Levis bucks the trend and becomes a solid starter. He boasts a similar physical profile and style to 2014 second-round pick Derek Carr. Carr has been a fine starter but was never quite impactful enough to win in the playoffs.
Detroit, Seattle, Las Vegas, New Orleans, Tennessee, and Atlanta could justify drafting Levis at the top of the second round because of their respective needs for a long-term starter. They must weigh whether they can afford to give Levis that time to develop or if they’ll bail at the first chance to get a more highly touted talent in coming years.
Levis could continue to slide on Day 2 if front offices aren’t completely sold he’s their heir apparent anytime soon.