The Pittsburgh Steelers lost several very recognizable pieces this offseason. Wide receiver Antonio Brown and running back Le’Veon Bell both moved on to different teams.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are now looking to replace two of their most important offensive players. Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell, along with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, had been the cornerstones of Pittsburgh’s offense since Bell’s rookie season in 2013. Under normal circumstances, the loss of two key offensive players would be a reason for serious concern. However, the Steelers actually have more reasons for optimism than other teams who face similar problems.
The emergence of James Conner
One of the primary reasons for this optimism is the fact that Bell’s replacement appears to have already been found. Although Bell was still on the Steelers’ roster last season, he sat out all 16 games in an attempt to get a more lucrative contract. And Bell’s decision to not play provided an excellent look at what Pittsburgh’s offense might look like without him. In particular, it gave Bell’s likely replacement, second-year running back James Conner, the chance to start. And he made excellent use of that chance. In just 13 games, Conner had almost 1,000 rushing yards and just under 500 receiving yards. Had he played for the entire year, he would almost certainly have surpassed both milestones.
Comparing James Conner to Le’Veon Bell
When you look back at Bell’s 2017 season, his statistics look very similar to Conner’s in 2018. He played two more games than Conner did, and had 1,291 rushing yards, 655 receiving yards, with 11 total touchdowns. Had he played the same number of games, Conner would likely have had similar yardage statistics and increased his lead in total touchdowns even further. Overall, their numbers look incredibly similar. While it might be a stretch to suggest that Conner is the same kind of explosive player that Bell was, he is undoubtedly producing at a similar level.
The two players’ PFN Offensive Share Metric (OSM) grades help to show even more clearly how similar these players were for Pittsburgh. In 2018, Conner received an OSM grade of 38.6, the highest of any running back that season. Bell’s 2017 grade was just slightly lower than this, at 37.3. Both players were instrumental to their team’s offensive success, and the Steelers have done very well to find a player who could step in and fill the hole Bell left in their offense.
The point here is not to say that Conner or Bell is the better player. It is still too early to suggest that Conner will be just as productive in the long term for the Steelers as Bell was; he will need to replicate his 2018 success in future seasons. However, it certainly seems as though he is a more than adequate replacement. Assuming he continues to play well, Conner is capable of filling the same role that Bell did as both a rushing and passing threat, which should allow Pittsburgh’s offense to continue in much the same way it has since Bell arrived.
Comparing Antonio Brown to JuJu Smith-Schuster
Although Bell appears to have already been replaced, the loss of Brown could be much more impactful. He has been with the Steelers since 2010 and has had at least 1,000 receiving yards in seven of those nine seasons, including six in a row. In 2018, he had 1,297 yards and led the league with a career-high 15 touchdown catches. That level of production cannot be easily replaced. Brown, unsurprisingly considering his statistics, had a solid OSM grade of 33. Even after nearly a decade, Brown has remained crucial to the Steelers success.
Despite all of this, Brown was not actually the highest graded player on Pittsburgh’s offense. That player was JuJu Smith-Schuster, who received an OSM grade of 35. In just his second year in the NFL, Smith-Schuster had 1426 receiving yards and seven touchdown catches. And he achieved this level of production despite the fact that he had to share the field with an established veteran like Brown. Smith-Schuster performed at the level of a true number one wide receiver on a team that already had one. And with Brown gone his production should increase even more.
The importance of Vance McDonald
Even though Smith-Schuster is an excellent wide receiver, losing Brown is still a big deal. As talented as Smith-Schuster is, he cannot replace all of Brown’s production by himself. The problem becomes even more apparent when you consider the fact that no Pittsburgh receiver other than Brown and Smith-Schuster had more than 500 receiving yards last season. The Steelers will need to look elsewhere if they want to make up for the loss of Brown.
One player who could see an increase in production is veteran tight end Vance McDonald, who had a breakout season in 2018. He had career-highs in receptions and yards with 50 and 610, respectively, while also tying his career-high of four touchdowns. This success in the passing game helped him receive an OSM grade of 39, the second highest in the NFL. Frankly, expecting him to play much better than this is somewhat unreasonable as he is already performing very well. However, Brown leaving will almost certainly give McDonald more opportunities in the passing game. In particular, McDonald could very well increase his touchdown total, since Brown will no longer be receiving the bulk of the touchdown receptions.
Alternative replacements for Brown
Smith-Schuster and McDonald increasing their numbers will likely not be enough, however. Pittsburgh’s offense will still need significant contributions from other players in order to replace Brown entirely. Fortunately for the Steelers, there are several places this production could come from. Perhaps one of Pittsburgh’s other receivers, such as Ryan Switzer, will step up and become a solid complementary receiver to Smith-Schuster. Or perhaps the Steelers take a more active approach and select a replacement for Brown in the upcoming draft. Even a later round pick could be enough to help the Steelers take a committee approach to the second wide receiver spot. Either way, Pittsburgh should not need to invest too much in order to get similar production from their receivers in 2019.
Regardless of the path they choose to take, the future of Pittsburgh’s offense looks surprisingly bright. It is true that they lost some excellent players in Bell and Brown. However, they have multiple young players who appear ready to replace their veteran counterparts. With just a few small adjustments going forward, Pittsburgh’s offense should continue to be incredibly dangerous in the coming seasons, despite losing several of their most high profile players.