We have reached the point of the 2024 NFL season when we see cases made for the MVP award. However, Lamar Jackson may have already made a defining case that he should collect the trophy before Week 10 is over. The Baltimore Ravens quarterback is putting together a masterclass on how to play the position.
Jackson’s performance so far this season is not just topping those of his other MVP seasons; it is dwarfing any other season that we have seen in recent years, dating back to his first MVP in 2019. Let’s break down Jackson’s performances in 2024, how they compare to the rest of the league this season, and historically within our complete QB+ database.
How Good Has Lamar Jackson Been in 2024?
Jackson has been installed as the favorite for the MVP award in 2024 after his Thursday Night Football performance. He had been tied with Josh Allen heading into the week, but is now +175 at DraftKings to be crowned at NFL Honors.
So far in 2024, Jackson is performing so well that he is streets ahead of the second-placed quarterback in our QB+ metric, Jayden Daniels. The distance between Jackson and Daniels is the same as the distance between Daniels and Baker Mayfield in 11th. That is a huge gulf we have seen open up, and it will be hard-pressed for anyone to close without Jackson’s level dropping off considerably in the remaining weeks.
QB+ combines several statistics that we have observed are important in evaluating quarterback performance. These include performance when throwing under pressure, throwing from a clean pocket, converting third downs, net yards per attempt (nYPA), and evaluating various clutch situations that players find themselves in during a game.
When you look across the various metrics used to analyze quarterback play, Jackson is in the top three in the league in most meaningful ones and inside the top 10 in basically every other metric as well. His performances, both in terms of throwing from a clean pocket and in clutch situations, are not just the best we have seen in 2024; they are the best we have seen in our database dating back to 2019.
If you break down Jackson’s performances at the game level rather than across the season as a whole, his performance is equally outstanding. Thursday night was Jackson’s fourth game grading inside the top 10 this season and his fifth game inside the top 15. No other quarterback has multiple top-10 performances this season, and only Jalen Hurts and Derek Carr have two performances inside the top 15.
Lamar Jackson was at his best in the second half of the Ravens’ comeback win over the Bengals, generating +18.0 expected points added on dropbacks after halftime, the 2nd-highest mark by a QB this season.
🔹 Intermediate (10-19 AY): 6/7, 81 yards, 3 TD
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— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 8, 2024
Of Jackson’s 10 games this season, seven of them have ranked inside the top 50, and three of them have fallen outside the top 100. Those three games outside the top 100 have come in the Ravens’ three losses. Essentially, when Jackson plays badly, the Ravens lose. When he plays anywhere above average, the team has won. That is essentially what we look for in an MVP.
Those statistics do not even fully appreciate how much Jackson has also added with his legs this season. While his rushing prowess is not what it once was in his career, he still averages 53.8 rushing yards per game, 5.9 yards per attempt, and a success rate of 54.9%. Those numbers only further serve to reinforce Jackson’s importance to the team.
How Does Jackson’s 2024 Season Compare Historically?
We can compare Jackson using QB+ back to 2019, as that is when the data for all of the statistics that make up the metric are fully available. However, that conveniently allows us to compare Jackson’s 2024 season with his MVP seasons in 2019 and 2023, as well as all of the other MVP-winning seasons during the last five years.
First and foremost, Jackson’s 2024 season is top of the entire database, ahead of Aaron Rodgers’ MVP season in 2020, Patrick Mahomes’ season in 2020, and Jackson’s own MVP season in 2019. However, Jackson is not just ahead of those seasons, he is ahead of them with room to spare.
The difference between Jackson’s season at the top of the leaderboard and Rodgers’ season in second is the same as the difference between Rodgers’ season and Dak Prescott’s 2023 season, which ranks 17th in our database.
In terms of the statistics we use to analyze a quarterback’s performance, Jackson is inside the top 5% in our database for all of them except third-down conversion rate, where he ranks just outside the top 10%.