Entering the 2024 NFL season, owner Shad Khan described this as “the best team assembled by the Jacksonville Jaguars ever” after making some key offseason additions (Brian Thomas Jr., Gabe Davis, Arik Armstead, etc.) and signing Trevor Lawrence to a five-year, $275 million deal that made him one of the NFL’s highest-paid quarterbacks.
However, Jacksonville dropped their first four games and eight of their first 10. Now, as the NFL’s Black Monday started, the organization has officially moved on.
What Went Wrong for Doug Pederson in Jacksonville?
Doug Pederson was 22-29 in three seasons with the Jaguars, and after another tough year, Jacksonville decided to move on from their head coach. In his first season in 2022, he led the Jaguars to the playoffs, rallying to beat the Chargers before losing to the Chiefs in the Divisional Round.
Getting Home
In this era of football, if you can’t make your opponent uncomfortable, you’re in trouble. The Jaguars have ranked 29th in sack rate during Pederson’s tenure, a statistic that has been tied to struggles over that stretch. The bottom four teams in this regard since 2022:
29. Jaguars
30. Panthers
31. Falcons
32. Bears
Living Up To Expectations
Sports betting is a billion-dollar business, and it has gotten that way because the lines set are ultra-efficient. They aren’t an end-all-be-all, but they are a pretty good snapshot of where the expectations sit at any given moment, and in that regard, Pederson’s Jaguars are underwhelmed.
During his time in Jacksonville, Pederson has won just 11 of 20 games when favored (55%; the NFL average hovers around 69% in such games). Over those three seasons, the Minnesota Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs, and Buffalo Bills all have won north of 80% of their games when favored — take care of business when you’re expected to and you’ll put yourself in a position to play meaningful games in December (and keep your job).
Coin Flip Chaos
Winning in the NFL is difficult, so when you have the chance to do so, you have to take advantage. The tail ends of the league are extreme, but the meat of the bell curve is as tightly packed as ever, and that results in a spike when it comes to games decided by a single possession.
Percentage of games decided by one-score
2022-24: 55.7%
2017-21: 50.3%
During his time with the Jaguars, Pederson went 10-19 in these contests, a 34.5% win percentage that ranks 29th. Of course, these coin-flip games can go either way for a variety of reasons, but the same teams have a way of winning them, and their coaches are viewed as true assets (Chiefs head coach Andy Reid, Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell, and Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin have all won at least two-thirds of such games over the past three seasons).
What Went Right for Pederson?
QB Opportunity
Pederson was a quarterback when he played and cut his teeth as a coach involved in that regard (he was an offensive coach for four seasons in Philadelphia before spending three seasons as the OC in Kansas City), so it should be no surprise that a priority of his is to keep his signal-caller comfortable. The Jaguars rank top-five in lowest pressure rate allowed this season and during his time in Jacksonville as a whole.
Over the past five seasons, the average NFL passer rating is nearly 50% higher when not pressured than when the heat is felt. This is a quarterback-driven league, and one way to get plus-play from the position, if not gifted elite talent, is to protect him at a strong rate, something Pederson teams have consistently done.
Special Special Teams
Attention to detail can take many forms, and they all matter. The Jaguars were a top-six team in net yards per punt in all three of Pederson’s seasons, a trait that can help facilitate major team growth (the Detroit Lions led the league in the category this season, and the upstart Washington Commanders were also top-10). Logan Cooke is a weapon that not all teams have, though it would appear that Pederson prioritizes this (Philadelphia ranked eighth while he was there and 14th since).
Tame The Ground Game
The running game has been devalued over time. Still, we are seeing more and more mobile quarterbacks open up running lanes (Baltimore, Philadelphia, Buffalo, and Washington are all playoff teams with athletic quarterbacks who rank in the top 10 in running back yards per carry this season).
With this trend likely to continue, the fact that Pederson’s Jaguars rank in the top-12 in preventing yards per carry before and after contact to running backs is impressive. The ability to make teams one-dimensional is valuable, and Pederson’s teams have done this at a high rate in the past.
Who Might Replace Pederson?
Liam Coen, Offensive Coordinator, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dave Canales secured the Panthers’ head coaching job in 2024 after revitalizing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense in 2023.
Liam Coen, who replaced Canales as Tampa Bay’s play-caller this offseason, is doing an even better job this year. During Baker Mayfield’s best season of his career, the Buccaneer ranking board was nothing short of elite this season:
- Third Down Conversion Rate: 1st
- Red Zone Efficiency: 4th
- Points Per Drive: 5th
- OFF+: 3rd (91.1; A-)
- OL+: 4th (92.1; A-)
- Baker Mayfield’s QB+: 6th (88.4; B+)