For the past three seasons, I’ve been one of the biggest Kyler Murray proponents out there. I consistently had him ranked above consensus. I targeted him. I drafted him. Now entering his fourth NFL season, I’m not selecting Murray in any fantasy football drafts. Allow me to explain why.
I’m not drafting Kyler Murray in 2022 fantasy football drafts
Before we get into why I’m not drafting Murray, I need to establish one thing: Murray’s ceiling is the overall QB1 in fantasy. It exists. That’s his upside. So, why would I want no part of that?
Kyler Murray has been an elite fantasy asset…right?
Murray entered the league in 2019. He was clearly very talented right out of the gate and an immediate fantasy asset. As a rookie, Murray averaged 18.2 fantasy points per game, and once upon a time, those were top-five numbers. In the modern NFL, not so much. He finished as the QB11 in ppg that season.
In 2020, Murray took his game to the next level, averaging 24.4 ppg, finishing as the overall QB3. He lost 2.2 ppg on his average in 2021 but still finished as the overall QB4.
So, we have a 25-year-old uber-talented quarterback on a high-powered offense with back-to-back top-four finishes and an ADP of QB5. Why exactly am I avoiding this in fantasy drafts?
Murray’s weekly performances tell a different story
I will be the first one to say I don’t really care about consistency. Upside wins championships and weekly upside wins fantasy matchups. I don’t need players to just be useful every week — I need them to win me matchups.
Murray does that. Last season, Murray posted three weeks of 30+ fantasy points and another week of almost 26 points. Those types of numbers win you matchups.
The problem is, at quarterback, down weeks can lose you matchups. In today’s NFL, just about every fantasy QB1 is at or near 20 ppg. Last season, the QB12, Kirk Cousins, averaged 19.2 ppg. In 2020, the QB11, also Cousins (who would’ve been the QB12 had Dak Prescott not got hurt), averaged 20 ppg. On any given week, if your QB isn’t getting close to 20 fantasy points, he’s likely hurting your chances of winning.
Last season, Murray scored 32.4% of his fantasy points in Weeks 1, 2, and 13. In his other 11 starts, he averaged 19 ppg. Basically, Murray was no better than Cousins for 78% of the season.
Kyler Murray’s tale of two halves
From Weeks 1-7, Murray averaged 24.8 ppg. However, in Weeks 8-18, he averaged 19.5 ppg while also missing three games. Let’s break down his performance further.
Over the first seven weeks of the 2021 season, Murray gave fantasy managers three difference-making performances, three neutral performances, and two potential matchup losses.
Over the final 11 weeks of the season, Murray played in seven games. In those games, he gave fantasy managers one difference-making performance, four neutral performances, and two potential matchup losses.
Despite Murray finishing as an elite QB1, fantasy managers didn’t receive elite QB1 production throughout the season. Instead, we got a couple of blow-up weeks amidst mostly average production.
This is still great for fantasy. I would take Murray’s numbers for my QB1…if I could draft him in the later rounds.
Which is entirely the point here.
If guys like Cousins or Derek Carr can provide the same number of 20+ fantasy point weeks, why spend significant capital in your fantasy drafts on Murray?
Now, admittedly, Cousins and Carr’s ceiling weeks are not as high as Murray’s. Neither player gives you 30-point upside. I get that. But are a handful of spike weeks worth 5+ rounds in ADP? There’s no objectively correct answer to that question, but for me, this answer is no.
Murray’s 2020 season
It would be unfair of me not to address Murray’s 2020 season — specifically his scorching start. From Weeks 1-10, Murray was the overall QB1 averaging 30.1 ppg. He recorded seven difference-making performances, including four games over 30 fantasy points.
Then, the wheels fell off. From Weeks 11-17, Murray averaged just 17 ppg, only eclipsing 30 fantasy points just once in that time.
Two years of this is certainly not a large enough sample size to draw any definitive conclusions. But the facts are Murray faded down the stretch each of the last two seasons. At 5’10”, 207 pounds, could it be that Murray just can’t hold up over a full season?
Every week matters in fantasy, but if your elite QB1 becomes a random low-end QB1 during the fantasy playoffs, it’s going to cost you. That is absolutely a good enough reason to avoid spending a premium draft pick on a quarterback.
What can fantasy managers expect from Murray in the 2022 season?
There is certainly a scenario where I look back on this article in January and seem very foolish. Murray has proven elite QB1 upside. He’s never been able to sustain it for a full season, but it’s within his range of outcomes to do it in 2022. In addition to the above, here is why I’m skeptical.
DeAndre Hopkins is now 30 years old. After being an iron man for his entire career, Hopkins dealt with a medley of injuries last season and couldn’t stay on the field. Additionally, when he was on the field, he wasn’t producing like the Hopkins of old.
Hopkins’ 20.5% target share was his lowest since his rookie season. The same goes for his 57.2 receiving yards per game. At age 30, coming off multiple lower body injuries, Hopkins may not be the same player. He’s also suspended for the first six games of the season.
Murray’s de facto WR1 last season was Christian Kirk. Well, he’s not on the team anymore. Replacing him is Marquise Brown, his old college teammate. But also the same Brown who couldn’t surpass 55 yards or score a touchdown over the final 10 weeks of the 2021 season.
Zach Ertz is very competent. Perhaps Rondale Moore takes a step forward. But how much faith do we have in a 34-year-old A.J. Green? It’s difficult to argue Murray’s supporting cast isn’t a bit weaker this season as a whole.
Perhaps this is the year Murray puts it all together for a full season. I’ll be rooting for him because I’ve always been a fan of him as a player. But from a fantasy perspective, I just can’t pull the trigger on Murray in the fifth round of fantasy drafts.
Every player has a price. If Murray fell to the eighth round, I would be all over him. My issue is not necessarily the way he produces on a week-to-week basis; it’s that I have to pay a premium for it. If that premium went away, I’d be in. Given his ADP around 50th overall, I will not be drafting any Kyler Murray in 2022 fantasy football drafts.