Antonio Pierce was 9-17 in parts of two seasons with the Las Vegas Raiders. He took over as interim coach in 2023 when Josh McDaniels was fired. Now, after going 4-13 this year, let’s examine why the team decided to make a coaching change.
What Went Wrong Under Antonio Pierce?
Red Zone Woes
Turning red zone trips into seven points and limiting your opponent’s ability to do so often swings outcomes, and in that regard, the Raiders struggled in a major way under Pierce.
During his two seasons, Las Vegas has ranked 29th in red zone offense and defense, a combination that caps the team’s ceiling. Limited talent can result in a low red zone trip rate. Still, coaching is often responsible for scheming up ways to convert the opportunities when they present themselves, an area that Pierce needs to iron out with time.
Drive Extension
The Raiders ranked 27th in third-down conversion rate during Pierce’s tenure. Part of those struggles can be attributed to a lack of upside at the quarterback position.
Still, the fact that they have ranked 27th in third-and-short situations speaks to a lack of offensive creativity that prevents much in the way of offensive potential.
Defense and Offense Rankings
Looking at PFN’s DEF+ metric, the Raiders struggled to create pressure without bringing additional help (25th in non-blitzing pressure rate, a figure that was bottom-10 prior to Maxx Crosby getting injured), something that fueled the fourth-lowest turnover rate in the league:
- 2023 Ranking: 15th
- 2024 Ranking: 21st
When examining PFN’s OFF+ metric, Vegas failed to clear 20 points in seven of eight games following their bye week this season, a continuation of a downward-trending unit that finished the season ranking 31st in EPA per play. The underwhelming metrics have been the status quo of late:
- 2022 Ranking: 14th
- 2023 Ranking: 21st
- 2024 Ranking: 29th
What Went Right Under Pierce?
Discipline
Pierce and his staff completely solved the stigma of the Raiders franchise. Over his two seasons, Las Vegas committed just 0.7 penalties per game, tied for the lowest in the league. That’s a nice stat to have in the pocket of any head coach for any amount of time, but the fact that he took over the most penalized team in the two seasons before his arrival (7.0) makes it that much more impressive.
Jim Harbaugh’s Los Angeles Chargers were tied for third-fewest in penalties per game this season, and we routinely see Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs and Mike Tomlin’s Pittsburgh Steelers occupying the top 10 in that regard.
There’s something to be said for a coach’s impact in this regard, and Pierce was able to flip the narrative in short order for the Raiders.
Resolve
The results obviously weren’t there in 2024, but their competitive nature can’t be overlooked. In Week 12, they were in a three-point game with six minutes to play against a strong Denver Broncos team and the following week, Las Vegas was a botched snap away from potentially beating the Chiefs in Arrowhead on Black Friday.
Wins over the Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints late in the season may not be resume builders, but they speak to Pierce’s having the ear of this locker room and his ability to keep them locked in down the stretch.
Only so many positives can be gleaned from a losing season like this, but we saw some teams throw in the towel, and the Raiders are certainly on that list.
Potential Pierce Replacement
Jesse Minter, DC, Los Angeles Chargers
Looking for the next Mike Macdonald? It might be Jesse Minter, who replaced Macdonald at the University of Michigan before following Jim Harbaugh to Los Angeles this offseason.
The growth of Los Angeles’ defense under Minter is undeniable, moving from a liability to a calling card for a playoff team:
- Yards Per Pass Allowed: 2nd this season (28th last season)
- Opponent Touchdown Rate: 2nd this season (26th last season)
- Red Zone Defensive Efficiency: 1st this season (13th last season)