The San Francisco 49ers made it official on Saturday night (March 1) that they are shipping off unhappy WR Deebo Samuel Sr. to the Washington Commanders for draft pick considerations.
The 29-year old is coming off of a down season (career lows in receptions per game and on-field target share), but he remains the type of versatile weapon that is valued at a high level in this league (37+ rush attempts in four straight seasons) and his 93 games of NFL experience are a nice addition to young offense with an impressive ceiling.
Deebo Samuel Sr.’s Contract Information
Samuel has one year left on his deal, and the macro breakdown isn’t all that complicated:
- $15,869,012 cap number for the 49ers in 2025
- $33,142,683 dead money in 2026 when deal voids
That said, because he was traded before June 1, the 49ers have $31,550,012 in dead money and the Commanders are now responsible for:
- $1,170,000 base salary
- $15,430,530 option bonus – prorating over 5 void years
- $4,256,106 cap number in 2025
- $12,344,424 dead money in 2026 when deal voids
Samuel Projecting Forward
Samuel’s production declined in 2024, but yards after the catch remains his clear strength. Even this past season, Samuel ranked second among WRs in average YAC and has never finished outside the top two among WRs in YAC per reception.
49ers trading WR Deebo Samuel to the Commanders for a 5th-round pick. (via @RapSheet) pic.twitter.com/V5hiStDf66
— NFL (@NFL) March 1, 2025
Samuel’s Average YAC in NFL (WR Rank):
- 2024: 8.3 (second)
- 2023: 8.8 (first)
- 2022: 8.8 (first)
- 2021: 10.0 (first)
- 2020: 12.1 (first)
- 2019: 8.3 (second)
How does that match up with what we saw from Washington last season? Here’s where they ranked league wide in terms of YAC per reception in 2024
- Running Backs: fifth
- Wide Receivers: 15th
- Tight Ends: 32nd
As a collective, the Commanders were a tick below the league average in terms of YAC (5.2 yards per catch compared to the NFL rate of 5.3). By itself, that’s not too noteworthy, but the success splits are something to consider as we continue to move toward an era that favors a high volume of short passes over deep attempts.
Average Team YAC, 2024:
- Playoff Teams: 5.7 yards
- Non-Playoff Teams: 5.1 yards
This move not only gives Jayden Daniels another reliable pass catcher, but it elevates their team profile relative to the competition they are likely to face in high leverage spots for years to come (the NFL’s top YAC teams last season were, in order, the Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, and Baltimore Ravens).
How does this impact the upside case for Daniels (QB9 in our QB+ grading system, ranking a spot ahead of Patrick Mahomes)? As a rookie, Daniels ranked 24th of 36 qualifiers in yards per short completion (under 10 air yards), a metric that saw the top three finishers all get invited to the MVP ceremony.
He ranked second in that regard on deep passes (15+ air yards); that means that this addition gives him a path to being a truly elite weapon with his legs, on short passes, and down the field — the golden trio of statistical outputs that few in the history of this game have ever had access to.
Samuel’s Fantasy Fallout
While it’s easy to love this move for the Commanders when it comes to their ability to repeat or even improve upon their strong showing in 2024, things are a little complicated on the fantasy side of things.
Samuel, himself, is a physical player that doesn’t project to age with grace. His usage patterns in San Francisco fueled his fantasy upside. While there is no promise that he is relieved of those duties in Washington, there’s no guarantee that he retains them.
His stock, as we sit here today, is higher than it was entering the offseason, but asking him to return to his glory days simply because of the promise that the Commanders have by way of Daniels is a little much.
Terry McLaurin still projects as the target leader in town, and if the carry count falls below two per game, Samuel looks more like a fringe asset than a weekly lineup lock that can swing matchups. As for the surrounding pieces, the adjustments are pretty straight forward. For me, McLaurin’s path to production will look a bit different, but I do expect most of it to level out.
He’s not going to dominate the target share the way he did in 2024 (18 more catches than any other receiver on Washington had targets), but the gravity that a proven player like Samuel provides should elevate the value of each individual target.
The obvious place for regression for Washington’s WR1 is in the touchdown department. During the first five seasons of his career, he cashed in 37.2% of his end-zone targets, a rate that exploded to 68.8% in 2024 (11-of-16). Dial that rate back a bit and we are likely talking about a receiver more on the fringe of WR2 status as opposed to the one that often was in the WR1 discussion a season ago (WR14 in PPR PPG).
Daniels is the biggest winner of this deal when it comes to fantasy football value, but he was already going to be highly thought of. We saw glimpses of his elite ceiling during his Rookie of the Year 2024, and a player like Samuel meaningfully elevates his floor. His standing at the QB position as a whole doesn’t change much with this deal, but your comfort level in investing serious draft capital in him as a sophomore should spike.
MORE: Simulate the NFL Offseason With PFSN’s Offseason Manager
Spending up on a signal caller isn’t for everyone, but it’s hard to imagine, barring injury, you lose your league because you took the plunge on a talented QB whose team is clearly looking to build around him,
The running game remains a question. Brian Robinson Jr. is an above-average back that has his best years in front of him, but if Samuel soaks up used both in the short passing game and in the red zone, his path to significant growth in 2025 isn’t clear.
Robinson appears poised to be a price-sensitive depth piece in most formats this season. If you can fill out your roster with exposure to potentially a top-five offense, you have to take it, but this isn’t the type of profile that winning fantasy teams overextend for.
Samuel Trade Grade
No one would have blamed the Commanders if they simply wanted to run back as much of 2024 as possible — they have the most valuable asset in our game in a dynamic QB on a rookie deal and are coming off of a season in which their playoff run was ended by the eventual champions.
They, instead, identified a distressed asset in San Francisco and pounced. Few true Super Bowl windows are open as long as we hope, and it is clear that this franchise has every intention of making the most of this opportunity.
Washington gets better in a spot of need (Samuel is one of the best after-the-catch receivers of this generation, and playoff teams last season averaged 11.8% more YAC yards per grab than teams who failed to qualify) while also weakening a team that represented the NFC in the Super Bowl just two seasons ago.
As the defending champs, the Philadelphia Eagles deserve to be favored to repeat as NFC East winners, but Washington has solidified itself as a Tier 1 team in the conference and can now make the defensive side of the ball its primary focus in the coming months.
- Commanders Grade: A
Grading a move like this for the team that loses a star is always difficult — it’s obviously a roster downgrade, but how far can a fractured locker room really go?
From an expected-wins point of view, moving Samuel to the AFC would have been optimal (there were Houston rumors), but again, this is a team that was handcuffed by the demands of a star player and couldn’t afford to be picky.
At the end of the day, they were able to recoup some future value for a player that was, very possibly, no longer helping them. Washington clearly wins by making this move, but that doesn’t mean we assign San Francisco a failing grade; they played with the hand they were dealt and allowed themselves to enter this offseason with a clear picture of what they have to work with.
- 49ers Grade: C