Not All 5-5 Teams Are Equal: Why a Bengals Rally To Make the Playoffs Would Be Historic

The Cincinnati Bengals fell to 5-5 with their 34-20 loss at Baltimore on Thursday, putting their playoff hopes in jeopardy and their division title chances on life support.

One of the first steps in assessing the viability of making a turnaround or comeback is to look at history and how many other teams have overcome the current situation to reach the postseason.

Before starting there, it needs to be noted that any talk of a rally and return to the playoffs has to start with Joe Burrow’s controversial wrist injury not being serious.

With that out of the way, let’s look at the raw numbers.

Bengals Could Join List of 5-5 Teams To Rally to Playoffs

Since the league added a seventh playoff team in each conference in 2020, 12 teams have started 5-5, and five made the playoffs (42%).

Here are the five teams who did it, what their conference and division records were at the time, and what their final seed ended up being.

2022 Buccaneers

The Buccaneers were 5-2 in the NFC and 2-1 in the NFC South division. They would go 3-4 down the stretch and still win the NFC South with an 8-9 record to earn the No. 4 seed. They lost 31-14 to the Cowboys in the Wild Card round.

2022 Chargers

They were 4-3 in the conference and 2-2 in the AFC West on the way to their 5-5 start. The Chargers won five of their next six after the 5-5 start and finished 10-7, earning the No. 5 seed and blowing a 27-point lead in a Wild Card loss to the Jaguars.

2021 Raiders

The victims of the first Bengals playoff win in 30 seasons, the Raiders got to 5-5 by going 4-3 in AFC games and 1-2 in the AFC West.

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It was a regular-season loss to the Bengals that dropped them to 5-5, and they lost two of their next three to fall to 6-7 before winning their final four and earning the No. 5 seed.

2021 49ers

The team that was a dropped interception away from playing the Bengals in Super Bowl LVI was 4-4 against NFC teams and 1-3 against the NFC West when arriving at the 5-5 mark.

San Francisco won four of its final five to get the No. 6 seed. The 49ers won back-to-back road playoff games at Dallas and Green Bay to reach the NFC Championship Game.

2020 Bears

They were 5-3 in the NFC and 1-1 in the NFC North and got into the playoffs by winning three of their final four to finish 8-8 and squeak in as the No. 7 seed. They lost their Wild Card game at New Orleans.

All things considered, that paints a pretty positive picture of probability.

Current AFC playoff standings: pic.twitter.com/Kenr5GRy1z

— Jay Morrison (@ByJayMorrison) November 17, 2023

If we go all the way back to 2002, when the current division alignment began, and there were six playoff teams per conference, it’s less encouraging.

From 2002-2019, there were 87 teams that started 5-5. Only 28 (32%) made the playoffs, including the 2012 Bengals.

But not all 5-5 teams are created equal. Cincinnati is currently 1-5 in the AFC and 0-3 in the AFC North. That is a gigantic hole to escape.

Of all the 33 teams that have rebounded from 5-5 to reach the playoffs, only two teams were more than one game below .500 in conference games — the 2012 Bengals and 2002 Jets.

None were more than two games below .500 in division games.

The reason division record is important when thinking about playoff tiebreakers for Wild Card spots is that when multiple teams are involved, the division tiebreaker is employed to advance one team from each division and then compare them head to head.

All totaled, only six of the 33 teams on the list were under .500 in conference games at the 5-5 point. At 1-5, a Cincinnati turnaround would be historic.

But of the Bengals’ seven remaining games, six of them are against AFC teams ahead of them in the conference standings, starting next Sunday at home against the Steelers.

Here is a brief look at those 28 teams that survived a 5-5 start to make the playoffs from 2002-19 (with conference and division record at the time, playoff seed, and playoff record).

• 2019 Titans – 3-4, 0-2; No. 6 seed; lost CC
• 2019 Eagles – 3-4, 1-1; No. 4 seed; lost WC
• 2018 Colts – 4-4, 2-1; No. 6 seed; lost Div
• 2018 Seahawks – 4-3, 1-2; No. 5 seed; lost WC
• 2018 Cowboys – 4-3, 2-1; No. 4 seed; lost Div
• 2018 Ravens – 5-3, 2-3; No. 4 seed; lost WC
• 2017 Bills – 3-3, 1-1; No. 6 seed; lost WC
• 2016 Steelers – 4-3, 2-1; No. 3 seed; lost CC
• 2015 Texans – 4-3, 2-1; No. 4 seed; lost WC
• 2015 Chiefs – 4-2, 2-1; No. 5 seed; lost Div
• 2015 Seahawks – 5-4, 2-2; No. 6 seed; lost Div
• 2013 Eagles – 4-2, 2-2; No. 3 seed; lost WC
• 2013 Packers – 3-4, 2-1; No. 4 seed; lost WC
• 2012 Bengals – 3-5, 2-3; No. 6 seed; lost WC
• 2011 Broncos – 5-3, 2-2; No. 4 seed; lost Div
• 2010 Seahawks – 4-3, 3-1; No. 4 seed; lost Div
• 2009 Ravens – 5-4, 2-2; No. 6 seed; lost Div
• 2008 Vikings – 4-3, 2-2; No. 3 seed; lost WC
• 2007 Chargers – 4-3, 2-1; No. 3 seed; lost CC
• 2007 Washington – 3-4, 1-3; No. 6 seed; lost WC
• 2006 Jets – 4-4, 3-1; No. 5 seed, lost WC
• 2006 Eagles – 4-3, 2-1; No. 3 seed; lost Div
• 2005 Washington – 5-2, 2-1; No. 6 seed; lost Div
• 2004 Rams – 5-2, 4-0; No. 5 seed; lost Div
• 2003 Packers – 5-4, 3-1; No. 4 seed; lost Div
• 2003 Ravens – 4-4, 1-2; No. 4 seed; lost WC
• 2002 Browns – 5-4, 2-3; No. 6 seed; lost WC
• 2002 Jets – 3-5, 2-2; No. 4 seed; lost Div

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