Since the turn of the century, 17 of 24 first-overall picks have been quarterbacks. Who will the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft be, and will Caleb Williams or Drake Maye uphold the tradition of the signal-caller heralding the rest of the class? Let’s discuss.
Who Will Be the No. 1 Pick in the 2024 NFL Draft?
I wish I could look into the future and give you a definitive answer, but the fact of the matter is, we don’t know who will go No. 1 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft this early. Given how valuable QBs are each cycle, and given how enticing Caleb Williams’ profile is on the surface, he’s a safe bet. But even he isn’t a guarantee.
Who the No. 1 overall pick is in 2024 ultimately depends on two things:
- Prospect progression or regression over the course of the 2023 season.
- The final 2024 NFL Draft order.
Before the season, all draft orders are mere projections, often based on Super Bowl odds. Based on the current Super Bowl odds, here’s how the top 10 of the 2024 NFL Draft would shake out:
- Arizona Cardinals (From HOU)
- Arizona Cardinals
- Indianapolis Colts
- Tennessee Titans
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Washington Commanders
- New England Patriots
- Los Angeles Rams
- Atlanta Falcons
- Pittsburgh Steelers
From this group, we can at least narrow down potential candidates to claim the No. 1 overall pick when it’s all said and done. The Cardinals seem to have the highest likelihood, especially given their possession of the Texans’ 2024 first-rounder. But the Colts, Titans, Buccaneers, Commanders, Patriots, and Rams also stand out in that discussion.
There are a few select outside-the-box possibilities where the No. 1 overall pick isn’t a QB. Let’s say the Colts end up with the first overall pick, and Michael Pittman Jr. leaves in free agency. That might entice the Colts to stand pat at No. 1 overall and pick Marvin Harrison Jr. — who profiles as a blue-chip WR prospect early in the process.
But even if a team like Indianapolis or Tennessee — both of whom have young QBs in place with Anthony Richardson and Will Levis, respectively — claims the first overall pick, it’s also likely that a QB-needy team or two will be on their tail at No. 2 or 3. And for a talent like Williams, a bidding war is almost certain to ensue, barring a regression. Someone will want the No. 1 overall pick, just to ensure they get their QB — similar to Carolina in the 2023 cycle.
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Drake Maye’s presence at the top of the board ensures that there won’t be complete QB scarcity. But every year, QB-needy teams fall in love with their guys and are often willing to give up capital. It’s hard to imagine that a team like Washington, Tampa Bay, or New England doesn’t fall in love with Williams’ tools if they end up needing a quarterback.
More simply put, if a QB-needy team is picking No. 1 overall, the pick will be a quarterback. If a QB-needy team isn’t picking No. 1, there will still likely be a bidding war for the selection. The team trading down gets a boatload of capital, and the team trading up gets Williams or Maye — whoever ends up being their QB1.
To reiterate, nothing is a guarantee — especially this early in the process. There are several variables to play out between now and next April. But if Williams and Maye stay in the early first-round discussion as expected, then 95% of outcomes will see the No. 1 overall pick being a quarterback.
Aside from Harrison at WR and maybe Penn State OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu, there aren’t many blue-chip positional prospects precluding a team from trading down — at least not yet.
What Happens If the Arizona Cardinals Get Picks 1 and 2?
Here’s one possibility that we haven’t quite discussed in detail yet. What if the Cardinals end up with the top two picks in the 2024 NFL Draft? Would they consider a quarterback? Which pick would they trade down if they entered a deal with a QB-needy team?
The answer to the first question is simple: No. There are very few scenarios where the Cardinals pick Williams or Maye. Even if Kyler Murray continues to stagnate in 2023, Arizona is essentially stuck with his contract for at least three more years.
From 2024 through 2027, Murray has an average annual cap hit of $49.139 million. Good luck getting a team to trade for that, especially if he regresses. If Murray does regress to a point where the Cardinals would consider cutting him, his dead cap each year is over $20 million until 2027, when it drops to $7.2 million.
Murray’s contract puts Arizona in a very awkward spot. The hope is that he comes back fully healthy and starts to take steps back toward his 2020 level of play, so the Cardinals don’t have to have this conversation. But even if the situation between him and Arizona bottomed out in 2023, it would be very tough to move on from Murray and, thus, hard to bring a rookie QB into that environment.
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More likely than not, the Cardinals are not QB suitors in the 2024 NFL Draft. But if they had both of the top picks, they’d assuredly trade down with one to capitalize on QB demand. Would it be the first pick or the second pick they trade down with?
Trading down with the second pick leaves open the possibility of a non-QB at one, but in this scenario, the Cardinals would likely trade down with the first overall pick. It’s a minute difference, but the rookie contract for the second pick is slightly cheaper than the No. 1 overall pick. Thus, it would be preferable for Arizona to deal the first pick and keep the second, so they don’t have to allocate as much cash.
To summarize, even if the Cardinals get both picks at the top of the board, the No. 1 overall pick is still 95% likely to be a QB. As for which one — that’s up in the air. Williams is the crowd favorite right now, but Maye is just as promising, with similarly exciting tools.
It’ll ultimately depend on the 2023 season and even the pre-draft process afterward, to distinguish which signal-caller is more worthy of the top overall selection.