There are a lot of exciting things in fantasy football. One such event is the drawing of the annual draft order. Watching those names pile out of that hat as yours remains, inching closer and closer to that coveted No. 1 spot, is exhilarating. For those fortunate enough to land the first pick, you’ve got a big decision to make. Who should you take with the first overall pick in 2023 fantasy football drafts?
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Who Should Be Pick No. 1 in 2023 Fantasy Football Drafts?
Getting the first overall pick correct matters. Every other team in the league is going to pick twice before you pick again. You don’t necessarily need to draft the best player, but you certainly can’t afford to get it wrong.
Each year is different in terms of how the No. 1 overall pick is treated. Some years, there’s a clear, undisputed option that everyone is taking. We saw this in 2020 with Christian McCaffrey.
In other years, there’s a consensus favorite, but another guy or two might mix in. We saw this last year with Jonathan Taylor as the overwhelming favorite, but McCaffrey and Cooper Kupp were in consideration.
Some years, however, we have no consensus, which is the situation we find ourselves in this year. The first overall pick hasn’t been this wide open since 2014, when LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson, and Calvin Johnson were all legitimate contenders for the top spot.
So, let’s examine the candidates and see if we can reach a conclusion, even if that conclusion ends up being they’re all worthy of the top pick.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
As a member of the Carolina Panthers, McCaffrey broke out in 2019, posting one of the best fantasy seasons of all time. He averaged 29.3 PPR fantasy points per game and obviously finished as the overall RB1.
That performance unsurprisingly made McCaffrey the consensus top pick in 2020. Performance-wise, McCaffrey was well worth the selection. He averaged 30.1 ppg that season. Unfortunately, he also became one of the biggest No. 1 overall busts in fantasy football history because he only played three games.
In 2021, McCaffrey was once again the consensus top pick, having been given an injury mulligan for 2020. However, injuries once again reared their ugly head, limiting McCaffrey to just seven games. He averaged 18.2 ppg, but 23.6 ppg if you remove the two games in which he got hurt in the first half.
Heading into the 2022 season, many fantasy managers had had enough. They slapped McCaffrey with the injury-prone label and said, “never again.” Yet, as we inched closer to draft season, there was more and more momentum behind McCaffrey at No. 1 overall ahead of Taylor.
Ultimately, Taylor remained the top pick, but McCaffrey proved everyone wrong. He stayed healthy, got traded to the 49ers midseason, and averaged 21.0 ppg, finishing as the overall RB2.
Now, for the third time in four years, McCaffrey is considered the consensus RB1. But does that mean fantasy managers should take him No. 1?
McCaffrey finds himself in the best offense of his career. That’s great for his touchdown upside…in theory. The problem is there are several weapons in San Francisco.
McCaffrey has to compete with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle for touches. This is a run-first offense, and McCaffrey is the clear lead back, but he did post some concerning splits when Elijah Mitchell was healthy last season.
Without Mitchell, McCaffrey averaged 22.7 ppg. With Mitchell, he only averaged 15.3 ppg. Now, to be fair, I don’t think a full season with both of them healthy will yield a season that bad for McCaffrey.
However, it’s entirely plausible that the 49ers, a very good team, control several games in the second half and opt to rest McCaffrey in favor of Mitchell when they are killing clock. San Francisco could also use Mitchell near the goal line to keep McCaffrey healthy. This is all nitpicking, but it’s important to acknowledge all factors when making any pick, let alone the top selection.
Ultimately, McCaffrey is one of the most talented RBs in the NFL and very much worthy of being the top pick.
Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
If you’re not making McCaffrey the top RB off the board, then your guy has to be Austin Ekeler. The former UDFA has taken his game to the next level over the past two seasons.
Ekeler’s fantasy production has been remarkably reliable. In 2021, he averaged 21.5 ppg (RB2 overall) and 21.9 ppg in 2022 (RB1).
If you want to take Ekeler over McCaffrey, I certainly won’t argue it. Ekeler plays in an elite offense with one of the best young quarterbacks in the league in Justin Herbert. His target share was 18.9% last season, second in the NFL. Ekeler also has the goal-line role, resulting in many touchdowns.
So, let’s talk about those touchdowns, because they actually are the source of the concern (if there is any) about Ekeler.
Over the past two seasons, he’s scored 38 times (20 in 2021 and 18 in 2022). That’s…a lot.
Volume-wise, Ekeler averaged 18.3 touches per game last season, which is relatively low for a truly elite back. Thus, he relies heavily on his receiving volume and touchdowns.
With the Chargers adding Quentin Johnston and a push-the-ball-downfield OC in Kellen Moore, there’s a chance we see a bit of pullback in Ekeler’s targeting. Fortunately, the TD upside should remain the same, as the Chargers have done nothing to put a remotely competent RB behind Ekeler.
Even at 28 years old, Ekeler has shown no signs of slowing down. Plus, receiving skills age much better than rushing skills. The 2023 season should not be the year Ekeler falls off a cliff. He’s a very safe pick and one you won’t regret taking first overall.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Now, for the wide receivers. It’s been seven years since a WR was seriously considered first overall. Yes, Cooper Kupp was in contention last season, but fantasy managers have always erred on the side of running backs. That may very well happen again this year, but Justin Jefferson just feels different.
In 2016, for the first time in history, the top three picks by consensus ADP were all wide receivers — Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and Odell Beckham Jr. There will undoubtedly be leagues in 2023 where at least the top two picks are receivers.
Jefferon is the next Calvin Johnson/Julio Jones/Antonio Brown-type fantasy WR. He’s that guy who will be a first-round pick for the better part of the next decade.
Jefferson has gotten better every year of his career. Last season, he averaged 21.7 ppg, which was good for the overall WR1 if you don’t count Kupp’s nine games. He’s now finished inside the top 10 in each of his first three seasons.
The thing about Jefferson is he has so much more room for progression in his fantasy performance. The man averaged 21.7 ppg despite scoring just eight touchdowns. At some point, just about every elite WR has a spike TD season. It’s only a matter of time before Jefferson puts together a 14+ touchdown campaign. When he does, he may break fantasy.
I can’t say for sure where Jefferson will finish among wide receivers, but I can confidently say he’ll average over 20.0 ppg this season. As with any player in the NFL, injuries are always a risk. But Jefferson has yet to miss a game in his career, and getting hurt is the only way he can be a failure in 2023.
Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Unlike with running backs, we’ve seen the same wide receivers finish No. 1 overall in multiple seasons or consecutively. It’s entirely possible Jefferson does it again. But if he doesn’t, Ja’Marr Chase is the most likely candidate for the throne.
In two NFL seasons, Chase has finished WR5 and WR4, respectively. Last season, he “only” averaged 20.2 ppg. A hip injury limited him to 12 games, so if you extrapolate his per-game numbers, he would’ve finished with 123 catches for 1,480 yards and 12.75 touchdowns.
Chase gets to play with Joe Burrow, who I believe to be the second-best QB in the NFL. This is a pass-first offense, and Chase is the clear top target. There’s still room to grow, too.
In a best-case scenario, Chase’s target share remains around 29% but the Bengals throw more. Chase could also find a happy medium between his 12.0 yards per reception last season and his 18.0 ypr as a rookie. Tack on a couple more touchdowns, and we have a truly transcendent season.
Jefferson is the current WR1, but it wouldn’t shock anyone if he and Chase swapped spots ahead of 2024.
Are There Any Other Players Worth Mentioning?
There will be tens of millions of fantasy drafts conducted over the summer. While the top pick will be one of the above four names in over 90% of them, there will be some outliers. It’s certainly worth exploring who those guys might be and whether there’s any merit to drafting them over the players you’re “supposed” to take.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Taking a rookie first overall is completely unprecedented. But a rookie running back finishing with elite RB1 numbers is not. We saw Saquon Barkley do it in 2018 with 24.0 ppg and Ezekiel Elliott in 2016 with 21.7 ppg. Rookie RBs with high first-round NFL draft capital have an incredibly high hit rate.
After Barkley’s rookie season, he was the consensus No. 1 overall pick as a sophomore. I’m reasonably confident that Bijan Robinson will follow a similar path.
Between his generational talent and the ages of CMC and Ekeler, I believe Robinson will be the consensus overall RB1 ahead of 2024 fantasy drafts. If he’s going to get there, he’ll need to have a pretty impressive rookie season.
I don’t have the beans to take Robinson ahead of McCaffrey or Ekeler, but he’s my overall RB3, and there will certainly be bolder folks than I who will be willing to take the shot on the rookie at No. 1.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
One of the most consistent receivers since his 2017 breakout, Tyreek Hill had arguably the best season of his career after leaving Kansas City in favor of Miami last season.
Hill set career highs in targets (170), receptions (119), and yards (1,710). He averaged 20.4 ppg, finishing as the WR3. Hill recently went on record saying he wants 2,000 receiving yards this season. I think he can do it.
There’s also the matter of Hill’s touchdowns, or lack thereof. When Hill had his career year in 2020, averaging 21.9 ppg, he did so with 15 touchdowns. Last season, Hill finished 1.5 ppg short of that but with less than half the touchdowns.
If Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy, Hill is absolutely capable of a spike TD season. Imagine last year’s numbers with double the touchdowns. That would’ve put him at 22.9 ppg — overall WR1.
Given current concerns about a possible 1-2 game suspension for an altercation, plus the ages of Jefferson and Chase, Hill remains my WR3. However, there’s no denying that overall WR1 and overall best non-QB fantasy scorer is within his range of outcomes.
Who Should Go No. 1?
This is why you came here, right? You want an answer. I hate to disappoint, but there is no clear answer. In the year 2023, there is no objectively correct pick at 1.01.
So, how do you know who to take first overall? Practice. Do a ton of mock drafts. We schedule multiple mock drafts each week in the PFN Discord.
Who you are likely to get in the second and third rounds affects who you should take first overall. Figure out whether you like your teams better with the WR first or the RB first.
I have yet to decide which direction I want to go in. Simply put, I need to practice more. After all, it’s only the middle of July. But I can impart this upon you.
Historically, I’ve always liked my teams more when I go RB early. The NFL has become a pass-happy league. While that may compel you to think wide receivers are the way to go, the most valuable asset in fantasy football remains the elite running back. And because of the nature of the modern NFL, fewer and fewer of them remain.
Once you lock up your elite RB1, it makes the rest of your draft much easier. You have more flexibility, and you won’t start panicking when you get to the middle rounds and don’t have a good running back yet.
Currently, the first two rounds of fantasy drafts are very WR-heavy. That means you very well may be able to get that top-12 RB at the 2-3 turn. If you can do that, going Jefferson or Chase first overall will be much easier. If not, you have a decision to make about how you want to construct your teams.
I’m not trying to push you toward McCaffrey or Ekeler at the top. Those are undoubtedly riskier picks than the WRs. It all comes down to what you value. As things currently stand, all four of them are worthy of being the No. 1 overall pick.
Who Should You Draft In Other Slots?
Have another league where you’re drafting in a different slot? Want to see what options might be available before or after your pick? We have you covered.
- Who Should Be the Second Pick?
- Who Should Be the Third Pick?
- Who Should Be the Fourth Pick?
- Who Should Be the Fifth Pick?
- Who Should Be the Sixth Pick?
- Who Should Be the Seventh Pick?
- Who Should Be the Eighth Pick?
- Who Should be the Ninth Pick?
- Who Should be the 10th Pick?
- Who Should Be the 11th Pick?
- Who Should Be the 12th Pick?